"03B" - 4pm Satellite Visible shot.

Isolated showers expected for S.Tamilnadu, S.Kerala during next 2/3 days.. may increase after that.

Showers expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from evening of 20-Nov (or) from morning of 21-Nov http://ow.ly/foIms 

Next moderate W.D is expected to reach Kashmir by evening of 21-Nov.. and expected to last for 3 days.

"03B" - Stationary, Dry and weakening. Rain expected !

4pm, Latest satellite IR shows some fresh convective activity around the core of "03B".
Positioned almost stationary at 15N, 86E.

IMD warning at 2pm
---------------------------------------

The depression over westcentral  Bay of Bengal  remained practically stationary and lay centred at 

1130 hrs IST of today the 19

th

 November 2012 near latitude 15.0

0

N and longitude 86.5

0

E, about 700 km 

east-northeast  of  Chennai  and  450  km  southeast  of  Visakhapatnam.  The  system  would  move  westsouthwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during 

next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, moderate rainfall would occur at many places over south coastal 

Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry on 20

th

 and 21

st

 November. Sea condition along 

and off Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough during next 24 hours. Fishermen along Andhra Pradesh, north 

Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea during next 24 hours

Both NOGAPS and COLA model suggest a S.coastal Andhra landfall as Depression or LOW on noon/evening of 21-Nov.

It may weaken to a LOW over sea itself on 20-Nov.

Showers expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from evening of 20-Nov (or) from morning of 21-Nov.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 10.15am, Clear skies, Sunny and Warm. Dry conditions prevails.

#chennai - Airport records 20.5 deg C today morning. Now 10:50am, skies have 90% cleared out with Deep blue skies.

"03B" is now a DRY Depression

"03B" is now a DRY Depression and have crawled S-W during the past 12hrs.
Now weakening fast.!
10am latest satellite IR shows the circulation with almost NO convective activity. Very rare to see this over Bay and that too this time of year !

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
---------------------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 15.2N 86.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
VOID OF CONVECTION AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA NOW SHOWS WIND 
SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AN 182123Z AMSU 
IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND IS BEGINNING TO 
SHOW SOME ELONGATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 
03B REMAINS IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM IN THIS HIGH VWS ENVIRONMENT, WHICH 
ALONG WITH THE IMMINENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE 
THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
190000Z IS 12 FEET.

Maharashtra, Karnataka and parts of AP are experiencing a cold wave on Sunday, 18th November. Partly due to an anti-cyclone over central India. The greatest departure was in the Vidharbha/Rayalseema region.
Temperatures as on 18th November with departures:
Chennai Ap was 17.2c a departure of 5.5c from the normal, and City at 17.6c was 5.3c below.  

Hyderabad 12.4, 4.8c below.In AP. Anantpur at 11c was 9c below normal.

Mumbai Scruz was 15.2c, 6c below the normal. Ahmadnagar at 7.8c was the lowset in Mahrashtra and was 7c below normal. Highest departure was in Yeotmal which saw 10c and was 8c below normal. Nagpur saw 10.5c, 4.9c below.

In Karnataka, Bijapur and Raichur which were at 9c was 10c below the normal and Belgaum at 7.7c was 9c below. Gadag was 12.9c again 5.1c below.

For update on cyclone ..now a depression see vagaries..

#chennai - temp. now 10:34pm is 25 deg C and going down slowly. City can expect a cloudy morning with medium high cloud cover & DRY.

"03B" - Becoming DRY and Weakening now, crawling S-W

"03B" - Becoming DRY and Weakening now.
A dry Deep Depression, crawling S-W and showing signs of weakening.
9pm Satellite IR shows convection along E,S-E and N-E.. almost nothing over the rest of the system.
Medium level clouding seen over S-W periphery may reach Chennai, S.Andhra coast by early morning tomorrow.

Latest position plot on map.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm
----------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NEARLY BEEN 
COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 180628Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT 
REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
LLCC. THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT INDICATED MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS 
STEADILY DIMINISHED THE INFLOW OF THE WARMER MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS 
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03B 
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 
MODERATELY HIGH LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
OBSERVED SHEARING OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND 
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS 
BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT PASS AND THE OBSERVED 
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC IN MSI. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADY OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK, EXCLUDING WBAR 
WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN 
VWS, THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS TO A STEADY STATE FORECAST, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. BASED 
ON CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED 
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET.

Colourful forecasts and very frequent changes in track forecasts have cast a shadow on the reliability and accuracy of model forecasts. True, all models go as per their computers, fed with the current parameters, but all including popular US model computers are in no position to accurately estimate the possible changes in the parameters they depend on. All judge from the possible computed estimates of wind shear, SST, pressure ridges, winds aloft and surrounding conditions.

Course of Events:...check article in vagaries....and the latest Update