Saturday, May 07, 2011

Some global models suggest that S-W monsoon over Kerala may arrive pre-maturely around 17 to 21- May !!?? ...
Chennai - Latest update at 2:53pm, Temp now is 40 deg C and NO sea breeze yet... going to have a HOT HOT evening !
Chennai - Touched 40 deg C at around 2pm and still persist above 40 even now 2:52pm. No sea breeze Yet today !!
The S-E central Bay circulation will Move N-E and this'll introduce S-W monsoon winds into extreme S. andaman islands in next 3 days
Yesterday's S-E central Bay circulation has moved N-N-E and it'll continue it's path and crash over S. myanmar coast in 48 hrs
Strong S-W winds over Indian ocean just south of Srilanka rushing towards S. Bay and into S. Andaman islands...
Westerlies has started dipping into S. peninsula ... and it'll get stronger from 10-May.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda 9.10 am, yestday temp 39-26C. Today it is windy, sunny & partly cloudy sky.
Global models showed that S-W winds now over south of Sri Lanka and are racing into the Bay..
Chennai - 11am .. its already 37 deg C... May reach 42 deg C today !!

Global models showed that S-W winds south of Sri Lanka and are racing into the Bay

 Westerly to southwesterly winds blowing into the Bay of Bengal may start gathering momentum over the next few days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Friday evening.

This is considered a good augury for the onset of southwest monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the country's farthest outpost towards east-southeast, around the normal timeline of May 15-20.
In fact, satellite pictures and global models showed that these winds have already picked up pace over upstream equatorial Indian Ocean just south of Sri Lanka and are racing into the Bay, pulled in by a weak low-pressure area in the southwest Bay.
Clouds have filled the region, and they would continue to be guided towards the Myanmar region as the weak ‘low' heads in a north-northeast direction.
From Myanmar and adjoining western parts of Southeast Asia, some of the floating moisture is seen being diverted northeast India, which may spark further activity in the already turbulent weather over that region.
IMD has also observed that the wind direction and strength indicates that the pressure-gradient - arising from enhanced warming in the Bay - may be building ahead of the onset of the monsoon.
The ideal pressure gradient was conspicuous by its absence through the course of the previous monsoon.
This had kept the Bay unusually quiet and left behind large rainfall deficiencies over east and northeast India.
In contrast, the Bay has warmed up to around 30 deg-Celsius already this year – well above the threshold for it to sustain low-pressure areas, tropical depressions or even a cyclone.
But nothing of that sort has happened so far this year since a barrage of strong opposing flows from prevailing western disturbances have prevented any system from taking shape. The latest in the series of these westerly systems was on show on Friday over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir with an induced cyclonic formulation clinging to its underbelly.
The IMD has warned of isolated thunder squalls over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal until the day after (Sunday).
The induced upper air cyclonic circulation was parked over northwest Rajasthan on Friday.
A trough ran out towards east-southeast from here across Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, southwest Bihar and Jharkhand to end up in a counterpart circulation over Gangetic West Bengal.
Satellite imagery on Friday afternoon showed convective clouds over parts of south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
An extended outlook valid until Wednesday spoke about the possibility of a fresh western disturbance approaching northwest India