Monday, April 30, 2012

Some Severe HEAT coming up for entire India from 3-May ..
Rainfall till 8:30am, 30-Apr-2012.. over S.Peninsula ...
The delay in developing “Heat Low” in Thar Desert region and "Pacific Ocean" ..?? ..
All India Rainfall Toppers from 01.01.2012 to 30.04.2012 ...
RT @bheemaupadhyaya: @weatherofindia thats view of todays rain in Bangalore. I liked a lot !
chennai - One last chance of T.shower tomorrow (1-May) afternoon !!
chennai - after 2pm the T.shower over S. chennai failed to materialize .. this might be the last window for Rain for next 15 HOT days !
RT @bheemaupadhyaya: @weatherofindia Its raining good Anjanapura, Bangalore South West.. (5:12pm)

Rainfall till 8:30am, 30-Apr-2012.. over S.Peninsula

Tiruvalangadu (Tiruvalllur dt)  and Hosur (Krishnagiri dt) 5 each , Polur (Tiruvannamalai dt) 4, Uthagamandalam (AWS), Ambur (Vellore dt) and Tiruvannamalai 2 each and Chengam (Tiruvannamalai dt),  Kalavai (AWS), Alangayam and Vaniyambadi (both Vellore dt), Chinna Kallar (Coimbatore dt), Tirutani, Tiruvalllur, Poondi (Tiruvallur dt), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Valparai , Madurai Airport and Andipatti (Theni dt) 1 each.

Rajampet and Satyavedu (both Cuddapah dt) 6 each, Srungavarapukotta (Vizianagaram dt) 5, Palamner and Pakala (Chittur dt) 4 each, Vuyuru (A) and Gudivada (both Krishna dt), Bobbili (Vizianagaram dt) and Suryapet (Nellore dt) 3 each, Tada , Udayagiri and Miryalaguda (all Nellore dt), Tiruvuru (Krishna dt), Gannavaram, Venkatagirikota , Puttur and Punganur (all Chittur dt) and Khammam 2 each and  Vinjamur and Seetharamapuram (both Nellore dt), Yerragondapalem (Prakasam dt), Porumamilla (Cuddapah dt) and Aswaropet (A) (Krishna dt) 1 each.    

Chintamani 7, M.M.Hills (Chamrajnagara dt) and Kolar 3 each and Sidlaghatta (Chickbalapur dt) 1.

Kozhikode Airport and Kochi Airport 7 each, Mavelikara (Alapuzha dt) 6, Piravom (Ernakulam dt), Mancompu and Chenganur (both Alapuzha dt) and Tiruvananthapuram City 5 each, Varkala (Tiruvananthapuram dt) 4, Aluva and Perumbavur (both Ernakulam dt), Kottayam, Thiruvalla (Pathnamthitta dt), Tiruvananthapuram Airport and Nedumangadu (Tiruvananthapuram dt) 3 each, Chalakudy (Thrissur dt), Alapuzha and Thodupuzha (Idukki dt) 2 each and Quilandy (Kozhikode dt), Perinthalamanna and Angadipuram (both Malappuram dt), Kodungalur (Thrissur dt), CIAL Kochi, Kayamkulam , Cherthala and Haripad (all Alapuzha dt), Kumarakom (Kottayam dt), Peermadu and Munnar (both Idukki dt) and Kollam 1 each.   

The Pacific Ocean

The Mighty Pacific Ocean

Pacific Ocean is the largest ocean in the world. It covers nearly 28% of global surface and of course larger than the land area of the globe.  It stretches between Southern ocean in the Deep South, to Asia, Australia and to major portions of western hemisphere. The Sun shine over the Pacific and the clockwise (anticlockwise) sea gyrations in Northern (Southern) hemisphere Pacific have an impact over global weather. The western Pacific exhibits monsoonal winds and becomes the major cause for rainfall In Asia.  Similarly the heating of western Pacific influences the weather pattern in India.  The sea surface temperature anomaly and station level pressure anomaly in the region between 5o N to 5o S and 150o W to 120o W and more precisely between 160o E to 150o W have a dramatic impact on Summer Monsoon Rainfall in India.  This tele connection was first discovered by Sir Albert Walker.  Relatively strong intense heating in the far eastern portions of above mentioned region in Pacific Ocean during this April 2012 may play a dramatic role in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall [ISMR]. The delay in developing “Heat Low” in Thar Desert region and far west desert / continental area may be attributed to this effect. Hence monitoring of SOI and SST (NINO) anomaly in the above mentioned region will help in prediction of ISMR.

All India Rainfall Toppers from 01.01.2012 to 30.04.2012

The rainfall figures given are in mm (Top 25 places - minimum 400 mm upto 30.04.2012)
  1. Cherrapunji (Megahlaya) - 1417
  2. Anini (Arunachal Pradesh) - 1140
  3. Tuting (Arunachal Pradesh) -1080
  4. Silchar (Assam) - 870
  5. Tezu (Arunachal Pradesh) - 730
  6. Piravom (Kerala) - 680
  7. Manali (Himachal Pradesh) - 610
  8. Car Nicobar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 590
  9. Gangtok (Sikkim) - 580
  10. Kochi AP (Kerala) - 532
  11. Kanjirappally (Kerala) - 530
  12. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) -530
  13. Tadong (Sikkim) - 510
  14. Nancowry (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) -490
  15. Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 450
  16. Punalur (Kerala) - 433
  17. Kailasahar (Tripura) - 430
  18. Dibrugarh  (Assam) - 420
  19. Perunchani Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 400
  20. Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 400
  21. Shillong (Meghalaya) - 400
  22. Pechiparai Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 400
Other places may also have obtained more rainfall than the station quoted above. 

After last year's epic rainfall race for being the wettest places during South West Monsoon. I have compiled a poll for viewers and rain followers voting for the season 2012. The link to the polls is here Poll code. The 2011 rankings can be found here - 2011 SWM rainfall rankings
Radar shows rain over zones S,S-W of Chengelpet 1:45pm
1pm, T.showers seen over N-W, central Tamilnadu and Sharp showers over S.kerala continue ..
chennai - can have T.showers on today and tomorrow.. and after that temp. to reach 40 deg C from 2-May..
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 1.50pm, Clear skies, Sunny, hot and humid..40C..Dryness in the air, and feeling the heat..
Present showers over Bangladesh, S.bengal and entire N-E states to continue till 6-May.. some showers over Bangladesh are going to be HEavy
Present W.D activity over N,N-W India will go down on 2-May... till then scattered showers forecast for Kashmir, Himachal & Punjab
S-W monsoon style morning showers to continue over S.kerala and S.tip Tamilnadu till 5-May..
Due to moisture left over by last week's LOW, T.showers expected to pop over N,S,central Tamilnadu , chennai till 2-May
Cold conditions have descended over Kashmir, N,central Pakistan and into N, N-W India.. this'll prevail till 4-May..
Heavy moisture presence seen over entire Tamilnadu and S.Kerala ..
RT @fredjoyjoseph: The awesomest thing s waking the sound f.rain outside your window..#kerala, i am loving it!!!
chennai - Southern suburbs are in for a T.shower in another 1 hr.. already we have drizzles around 1:23pm

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Traditional Heat Low

India, looking like an inverted triangle, is standing in the gate way for Indian Ocean (monsoon) winds. The max temp generated by GFS model indicates that eastern side of western ghat is warmer.  The intense land heating is just picked up in Indian landmass along with Bay just north of 13-14 Deg N latitude. As the Sun advances further to North more heating will take place and traditional heat low in NW parts of India will form.
Pluvial lakes formed in Thar desert during last three years SWM rain.  This lakes prevented heating in the NW.  It may be considered as one of the reasons for the delay of  formation or presence of  traditional HEAT LOW in the NW.
Lots of T.showers seen over S, N-E andhra, T.cells also seen over N,N-W Tamilnadu, Orissa ..
chennai - a super thunder shower seen over 20km North of Thiruvallur. 4:20pm

Official Monsoon forecast disappoints: The IMD plays safe, hedges its bet!

The long waited official forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) was finally announced last Thursday evening. The country is set to receive normal South West Monsoon rains in 2012, for a third year in a row. “It is a normal forecast,” said Mr Vilasrao Deshmukh, Union Minister for Science and Technology.

A forecast of normal rainfall at 99% of LPA should be reassuring news for India where the monsoon is the lifeline of a farm-dependent economy. But as they say “The devil is in the details”. So what’s the fine print? These read as follows:

(a)  Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be Normal (96-104%) of Long Period Average (LPA)) with the probability of 47%. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

(b)  The probability (24%) of season rainfall to be below normal (90-96% of LPA) is also higher than its climatological value. 

(c)  However, the probability of season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) is relatively low (less than 10%).rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) is relatively low (less than 10%).
The IMD’s forecast of a “Normal Monsoon” lacks a high confidence level as they preferred to actually hedge their bets. As the Business Standard noted - reading between the lines, two facts emerge: one that the probability of “normal” rains at 47 % is lower than around 51%, issued last year, and two, the likelihood of “below normal rains” at 24% is higher than that of 20% during 2011.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

This is the expected heat map for 2-May, HEAT over West, S,S-central, E-central India...
RT @sonaliranade: Gujarat to have 31% more rain this year, predicts AAU
Today's heat map .. Most of the heat is over central, E.central India ..
RT @_inba: Coimbatore with RainNclouD last week !
@weatherofindia >> Nice collection !
11pm, As expected moisture push is happening over Bangladesh, Orissa, S.Bengal and into N-E states.. T.showers seen..
chennai - COLA models forecast T.showers for city till 30-Apr.. and 40 deg C from 2-May..
Nagercoil (S.tip of Tamilnadu) - Intermittent S-W monsoon style showers continued even today morning for town.
Showers to linger over Kerala, S.Karnataka, N,N-W,N-E Tamilnadu till 1-May.. and rains will continue over W.ghats of Kerala after that !
Heavy Showers forecast for S.Karnataka, N,N-W,N-E. Tamilnadu inculding chennai for next 36 hrs.. and reduce aftr that.
Today, heavy moisture is lurking over S.Karnataka, entire Kerala and N,N-W,N-E Tamilnadu.. more Heavy T.showers forecast
Now the circulation has almost merged with the existing N-S trough..
On 27-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 42.0°C was recorded at Amraoti (Maharashtra) and Bankura (West Bengal)
RT @hellokerala: RT @santoreeves: The looming rain gods kerala nature

Some light rains in Chennai on Sunday and Monday, passing showers maybe, then decreased minimal rainfall in the South till Saturday, 4th May. Some light rains on Friday thru Sunday, 6th May in Kerala and interior TN.
Heat Wave next week in North.
For all India details see Vagaries.

Monsoon Watch -4, forecast for quantum of rain will be put up on vagaries on 1st May.

Friday, April 27, 2012

"Colours and Clouds!!A wonderful treat by mother nature as I landed in Chennai " .. WoW ..
"nice view of a lonely T.cell" ... Supposedly taken from Karapakkam, Chennai ...
chennai - Temp. to reach 39 / 40 from 2-May... WoW .. but another shower possible before Monday evening ..
7:30pm, As expected Heavy T.showers over N,central Kerala, S,S-W,central Karnataka and N,W,N-W Tamilnadu.. ... 4:30pm, showers seen over S.Punjab, Kashmir, Himachal and N,N-E Uttarakand
4:30pm, Fresh T.cells seen over S, N-E.Andhra, N-W,central Tamilnadu, W,central,S. Karnataka ... clear over S.Kerala.
As expected Moisture will happen into Bangladesh, S.Bengal and N-E states from tomorrow, HEAVY rain forecast till 3-May.
S-W Monsoon style showers will continue for S.Kerala and S.tip Tamilnadu till Sunday..!
3:30pm, Heavy T.showers over N,central Kerala, Monsoon style showers over S.Kerala, And T.showers over N,N-W Tamilnadu, S,central Karnataka.
Nagercoil - town got heavy Monsoon style showers from 12 midnight till 12pm today.
RT @sreecanraj: @weatherofindia Rain photo at TvM Karamana (12:09pm)
RT @sreecanraj: Heavy rain in Trivandrum (11:55am)
RT @saifarash: Summer Rain Picture - Kerala India Weather Photography
Showers due to present circulation will decrease from Monday over S.peninsula.
In 24hrs, Heavy T.showers possible over N,N-W Tamilnadu, N.Kerala, central,S.Karnataka ..
Showers will become isolated over Tamilnadu, Kerala from Monday, 30-Apr.. till then scattered Heavy showers possible over Kerala & Tamilnadu
Due to this circulation Heavy moisture is over Tamilnadu, Kerala, S.Andhra and S.Karnataka.. and expected to last till 2-May.
COLA shows the most of circulation is now over central Tamilnadu.. and it'll merge with N-S trough in another 24hrs..
Long Range Forecast For 2012 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall ... IMD press release.. "Normal Monsoon ahead" ..
RT @vishoy: raining @ Thiruvallam temple, Trivandrum (11:06am)
On 26-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 42.4°C was recorded at Khajuraho (Madhya Pradesh)
chennai - 11:17am, S,S-W suburbs of city is having heavy T.cell formation.. after city showers it's now turn for Suburbs !!
RT @tweet_tac: Thank God, it is raining in Chennai :) @weatherofindia Alwarpet (9:24am)
RT @looseyfer: Random wtfdrizzle in chennai. Not complaining (9:23am)
RT @gravikumar: @weatherofindia its raining at Adyar chennai now at 9.15 am
RT @karthikdot: It rained for a while in Chennai. The skies are clearing up again! (9:12am)
Chennai - raining in city now 9:06am seen from pallavaram ...
RT @saisowsen: @weatherofindia heavy showers pallikaranai chennai (8:05am)
RT @aknarendranath: In two hours weather in Delhi changes from overcast and misty to clear blue skies! (7:49am)
RT @koolhead17: It raining finally in Chennai, nice weather. (8:56am)
Low B-1 moves NE and merges with the N/S trough line at 78E. Likely to fizzle out now. Induced low from WD seen in North India bringing rains there.
See updates on Indian Weatherman and Vagaries.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

RT @sid50cent: Showers lash Delhi, good weather to continue
RT @manojvilayil: @weatherofindia drizzling in nooranad, Kerala (8:31pm)
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Raining in Delhi. (7:38pm) .. 6:30pm, Fresh T.cells seen over S-W.Maharastra and Gulf Mannar.
6:30pm, Heavy T.showers over N,N-E.Andhra, Central Kerala, Central Karnataka, N.Tamilnadu...
RT @anupshaji: Heavy rain here...#Kottayam Kerala (6:11pm)
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Another pic for you.. Delhi 3:27pm
Showers in Ludhiana, Punjab ... (2:58pm)
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia overcast skies and drizzle in Delhi. (3:16pm)
RT @filterednews: India launches first all-weather satellite -BBC News
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Drizzling. Photo being uploaded. Delhi (3:10pm)
"Seasonal LOW" over N-W India may be delayed due to more Western Disturbances !! ...
Rainfall data due to this present LOW ...

"Seasonal LOW" over N-W India may be delayed !!

Northwest India witnessed overnight rainfall at a few places over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, east Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday.
Combined with the outlook for another weather-making western disturbance, this rules out any immediate scope of extreme heating to begin in the region.
This would also delay the formation of the ‘seasonal heat low.’ This formation is responsible for pulling in the monsoon current from the southwest.
Latest global forecast indicates that ‘sustained and purposeful’ heating would begin by only the second week of May.
This is based on the assumption that the frequency of contra-indicative western disturbances would wind down by that time.
But models suggest that the mercury may not peak to a level where it could trigger dreaded heat waves in any part of the country.
Searing heat waves are a usual occurrence in northwest India as well as central and east-central India during this time of the year.
Extreme heating of this kind is what helps put the right temperature/pressure gradient into place relative to the ocean. The monsoon rides this gradient from the southwest.
PSLV-C19 puts India’s first radar imaging satellite into orbit...
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Dust storm in Delhi. (2:29pm)

Rainfall data due to this present LOW

Heavy rainfall data till 8:30am, 26-Apr-2012
Pakala (Chittur dt) 13, Cherthala (Alapuzha dt), Thodupuzha (Idukki dt), Begur (Chamrajnagara dt) and Bangarpet (Kolar dt) 10 each, Kodungalaur (Thrissur dt), Aluva (Ernakulam dt) and Dharapuram (Tiruppur dt) 9 each, Seetharamapuram (Nellore dt) and Dudda (Hassan dt) 8 each  and Kochi Airport, Tiptur (Tumkur dt), Belur (Hassan dt) and Sorab (Shimoga dt) 7 each.

and here's the Rainfall map till 8:30am, 26-Apr-2012.
Taken from IMD

On 25-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 42.3°C was recorded at Bramhapuri and Chandrapur (Maharashtra)
Showers seen near Kanchipuram at 11:30am
RT @rshivaag: @weatherofindia unfortunately clear sky from 10 AM .. over Tuticorin.
A weak W.D is nearing W,N-W Kashmir... showers expected to increase in another 24hrs
Widespread showers forecast for Kerala, S, coastal Karnataka and Tamilnadu in next 36 hrs
FNMOC is tracking the circulation as "91A" and it locates it at 10.2N, 75.2E
5:30am, COLA suggests the circulation is still over Gulf of Mannar and extending upto S-E corner Arabian sea along S.kerala coast.
Circulation still persists over Gulf of Mannar ...
RT @_614221684683: rain in kerala (good collection of pics)
RT @rshivaag: Cloudy over night and raining now in tuticorin. Seems it may continue for halfday. As it is NOT heavy but steady. (8:30am)
RT @saifarash: 10am-It's raining and cool here-a road view from Eranjimavu-#Maappuram Kozhikode Dist. border- Kerala
Low slips into Arabian Sea as 91A..follow up progress on Indian  Weatherman and Vagaries.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Strong moisture push is expected to happen into S.Bengal, Bangladesh and N-E states from Saturday.. HEAVY rain expected.
Present Thunder storm system's ..head can be seen West of chennai
5:30pm, Heavy T.showers raging over S,S-E.Karnataka, S.Andhra and N.Tamilnadu for the past 3 hrs...
"Bay of Bengal" low pressure systems and South West Monsoon .. Must read ..
RT @saifarash: Cloudy sky over my house 3pm rain clouds are forming.Expecting more rain. Kozhikode Malappuram Kerala
RT @reachpari: This rain is such a relief. Much needed! My plants look so much better already! bangalore (3:35pm)
RT @asury: @weatherofindia "It has started drizzling in Bangalore" (3:33pm)
RT @imran_ozone: @weatherofindia its raining here in Salem frm last 1 hour with sevre thunderstrm nd am loving it ! (3:20pm)
Chennai - 12:30pm, N-W is having a thunder cell.. ..more T.cells forming over S,S-W of chennai as well
RT @rajugana: Baroda 12.50pm, Cloudless clear sky, sunny, hot and humid. Rain, rain come here!!! a pic of clear sky
"Bay of Bengal" low pressure parameter is no longer a worrying factor. Normally, the Bay hosts a pre-Monsoon low anytime after 15th. April. Like I mentioned in the previous MW, in 2010 we had a cyclone in the Bay by the third week, and in 2009 a cyclone crossed the Bay on 12th April.
We have had a B-1 now !

As on today, this region still maintains a good prospect to the formation of another quick low. The winds indicate a weak low trying to establish itself. 
Also +ve sign of a quick formation is that the SST is conducive. Map shows around 31c near the Andaman Islands. Ideal temperature for quick low formation.
A pulse from the far east is possible in the next 15 days. 

Read Complete Report of all parameters pertaining to SWM and Monsoon Expectation on Vagaries
@natraj60 >> Weather around Navagraha temples will be Hot, very humid and 60% chance of T.showers on Saturday & Sunday.
CAPE factor is very high over S,entire coastal. Tamilnadu and S,central.Kerala this'll give rise to Heavy T.showers..
Heavy widespread showers forecast for entire N-E states, E.Bangladesh from Saturday till 1-May and beyond..
Next W.D is expected to move into N-W India, Kashmir on Saturday
RT @headlinesindia: @weatherofindia The capital woke up to a pleasant and sunny today morning with the minimum temperature settling at 21.4C
From Friday to Sunday, scattered T.showers possible over S.Karnataka, Kerala and W,N-W Tamilnadu ..
S.Tamilnadu, S.Kerala to get HEAVY T.showers in next 24 & 48 hrs..
Today analysis show very high vertical velocity over central coastal Tamilnadu ... Heavy rain possible over entire Tamilnadu & Kerala.
This circulation effect is expected to last over S.Karnataka, entire Kerala and Tamilnadu till 1-May.
On Friday, the circulation is expected to move North along W.Ghats and merge into the already existing North-South Trough !
Now the circulation over Gulf Mannar will weaken and move west into S.Tamilnadu in next 12 to 24hrs..
Today, the circulation still persists and moved S-W and locked into Gulf of Mannar..
chennai - missed another T.shower that came close at 6am.. and ended up with drizzles !
On 24-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 43.8°c was recorded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh)
RT @kumarsinha: RT @HeadlinesIndia: Pleasant morning in Delhi, clear day ahead
RT @sreeju_: Good morning . Its raining in chennai 6am

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

B-1 Moved West as estimated and at 1002 mb lies just South of Madurai at 11.30 pm (IST) 24th April.
Expected to move West and bring heavy rain South of the Mangalore/Bangalore/Chennai line. Chennai effect will decrease.
Detailed map put up on Vagaries.
RT @kbhaskar: @weatherofindia Now its windy at bangalore. Hopefully some rain... (8:40pm)
8pm, 90% of Kerala & 95% of Tamilnadu is under Heavy cloud cover & scattered heavy rains.. Rain in kolkata ..
RT @imran_ozone: @weatherofindia it's drizzling here in salem.will heavy rain come? (8:01pm)
5:30pm, Whole of S.Tamilnadu, S.Kerala is having heavy T.showers, Rain also seen over Punjab, Haryana & Himachal..
RT @1prad: @weatherofindia cloudburst in madurai....widespread thunderstorms and
very heavy rainfall. (5:53pm)
Madurai - (posted 2hrs ago)
RT @aashtvm: Raining here, but not that big trivandrum (4:19pm)
RT @skvcet: Thunderstorm at madurai... Heavy rain complimented by bright lightenings and frightening thunders... (4:29pm)
RT @jeyavel16: Uuhff....heavy thunder RAINING MADURAI (4:29pm)
4:10pm, Tiruchchirapalli airport is reporting "Light Rain with Thunderstorm"
Bangalore sizzles at 37.1 degrees Celsius: 2012's hottest day yet !!...
Rain to become widespread and stronger for E.Bangladesh and entire N-E States from 28-Apr..
Present weak W.D will persist over Kashmir and Himachal till Friday before picking strength on Saturday..!
By friday, the showers will move N-W into N.Kerala, N-W.Tamilnadu and S,S-W.Karnataka ..
chennai - have missed Rain chance yesterday night and today till now.. Only a 30% chance of rain before Friday. Now HOT with high Humidity
RT @chetannarula: (rain) seems to have stopped. just some odd drops. nothin much. very windy n dusty. Delhi now 3:55pm
Very heavy rain forecast for entire S.Tamilnadu and S.Kerala till 26-Apr...
RT @barkingbegum: The rain Gods seem to be happy with Delhi these days. (3:30pm)
RT @chetannarula: Thunderstorm. Rain. Delhi. Now. (3:13pm)
RT @grewalsecret: Rain yesterday brought a disaster for farmers across Punjab..((
3pm, Fresh T.showers have broken out over S,central, S-coastal Tamilnadu and Gulf Mannar..
2:25pm, chennai - Good thunder cells visible over E-N-E over Bay at 80km ...
RT @saifarash: @weatherofindia Lightning Killed 4 in 4 days at Malappuram district - Kerala weather
90B is formed and is moving West into T.N.coast...rains expected below the 12N line next few days..see details on Vagaries.
Heavy T.showers to continue for Tamilnadu, kerala and S,central Karnataka till Saturday.. as the Circulation moves into S.Tamilnadu today
Anini & Tuting croses 1000 mm rainfall for the year ahead of Cherrapunji....
Circulation persists over S-W Bay along Srilanka's N-N-E coast...
RT @rshivaag: @weatherofindia south TN, Tuticorin started to receive little rain. May be other areas receive more. (8:32am)
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.30am, Clear Sky, Sunny and windy. Cloudless sky. Slight drop in temp yestday 38C.
Chennai - showers seen over N-W and S-W of city now 2:45am

Monday, April 23, 2012

chennai - showers came close, it was there at 120km S-E of city.. now 7pm its dead.. but more real chances of rain tomorrow!
6:30pm, What's happening over Kerala, S.Tamilnadu ??.. Showers came close to chennai coast, now it's dead..
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 5.30pm, Clear sky, Sunny, hot & windy day.
RT @_inba: Happy to see Coimbatore with grey clouds ! Hope it will rain :-) (4:27pm)
Coimbatore - METAR is reporting a T.shower around at 4:30pm
4:10p,, Trivandrum airport is reporting a T.shower !
Today, The CAPE factor is high along Tamilnadu coast and Kerala ... and expected to be high for next 3 days.
chennai - 4:05pm, Showers seen over E-S-E.. 120km away over Bay.. These clouds are seen slowly approaching City for past 1hr.
3:30pm, lot's of T.showers have broken out over S.Tamilnadu, and entire Kerala.. and showers nearing N.Tamilnadu coast.
Present weak W.D will persist over Kashmir, Himachal till 27-Apr. And scattered showers over entire N-E states will continue till month end.
Widespread T.showers forecast for S,central Tamilnadu, S. Kerala from tomorrow till 26-Apr..
For next 7 days till 28-Apr, HOT conditions will be over central,E-central India.
The circulation is expected to persist over entire S,central Tamilnadu from 24-Apr till 26-Apr.. Heavy rain forecast..
Here's the COLA model forecast of the Circulation in next 24hrs..
The circulation & moisture will reach Central.Tamilnadu coast in another 12 hrs.. then persist over S.Tamilnadu for 2 days.
In 24hrs, Moisture and the circulation will be over Central.Tamilnadu coast .. Heavy T.showers expected over S,central,coastal Tamilnadu
2pm, T.showers seen over S. kerala, S.tip Tamilnadu, Very active Gulf Mannar... All these due to the circulation ...
Lot's of T.showers seen over Bay, 150km E,S-E of City... Showers may be expected over chennai from tonight or tomorrow.
chennai - a lonely Thunder cell visible around 50km S-S-W of city. 3pm
chennai - is witnessing a weather change... DEEP blue skies now with strong breeze from East, Thunder cells visible over Bay !
On 22-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 43.0°C was recorded at Titlagarh (Orissa) and Rentachintala(Andhra Pradesh)
Heavy T.showers forecast for S.kerala, S,central.Tamilnadu today as the S-W.Bay circulation persists.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Anini & Tuting crosses 1000 mm rainfall for the year ahead of Cherrapunji.

The rainfall figures given are in mm (Top 20 places - minimum 300 mm upto 22.04.2012)
  1. Anini (Arunachal Pradesh) - 1020
  2. Tuting (Arunachal Pradesh) -1010
  3. Cherrapunji (Megahlaya) - 750
  4. Manali (Himachal Pradesh) - 590
  5. Car Nicobar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 570
  6. Gangtok (Sikkim) - 510
  7. Silchar (Assam) - 510
  8. Tezu (Arunachal Pradesh) - 440
  9. Nancowry (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) -440
  10. Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 420
  11. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) -390
  12. Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 380
  13. Kanjirappally (Kerala) - 350
  14. Piravom (Kerala) - 350 
  15. Perunchani Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 330
  16. Bhuntar (Himachal Pradesh) - 310
  17. Pechiparai Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 300
  18. Srinagar - (Jammu & Kashmir) - 300
  19. Kailasahar (Tripura) - 300
Other places may also have obtained more rainfall than the station quoted above. 

After last year's epic rainfall race for being the wettest places during South West Monsoon. I have compiled a poll for viewers and rain followers voting for the season 2012. The link to the polls is here Poll code. The 2011 rankings can be found here - 2011 SWM rainfall rankings
4:30pm, Scattered T.showers seen over S.karnataka, showers over N-E.Andhra, coastal Orissa..
RT @otvnews: Two die of heavy lightning in Banki area of Cuttack district
RT @newglamourboy: Raining in cuttack bad news for kkr and dc . IPL (4:37pm)
RT @shauvick: Raining in cuttack.. :'( (4:05pm) ... IPL match at 8pm here... status pls !
RT @manishsahoo: t's raining cats and dogs cuttack (4:11pm).. today's 2nd IPL match is schedule here at 8pm
chennai - 4:10pm, very HOT .. 35.0°C and feels like 40.7°C, sea breeze has set it but NO respite from heat!
Thunderstorm wreaks havoc in Pollachi.. on Night of 20-Apr..
10:30am, Heavy rain over N.Srilanka.. 95% of India is clear ..
If the Bay circulation moves as predicted, then Heavy showers expected for S,S.central,Central-coastal Tamilnadu from 24-Apr.
T.showers expected to be widespread and strong from Monday over Central,S.Kerala and over S.Tamilnadu..
Afternoon T.showers forecast for Orissa, N,N-E.Andhra, E.Maharastra, S.Chatisgarh from today till 26-Apr..
COLA predicts, after tuesday, the circulation is expected to persist over central Tamilnadu for 2 days and then move North.
COLA now predicts the S-W.Bay circulation will crash over Central.coastal Tamilnadu on 24-Apr..
Circulation persists over S-W.Bay.. And moisture persists over kerala and S.tip Tamilnadu ..
chennai - having a clear day with some low cloud formation... temp. at 10:40am is 34.0°C and feels like 38.3°C
chennai - having a clear day with some low cloud formation... temp. at 10:40am is 34.0°C and feels like 38.3°C

This coming week, we see some "activity" in the Southern regions. A low, B-1, has formed in the SW Bay on Saturday, though weak at 1004 mb. It is expected to move W/NW, and cross South/Central T.N. coast at 1002 mb near Pondicherry, at around 11N. B-1 should cross by Tuesday, though being the first low of the season, its behavoiur needs monitoring. B-1 should then merge in the trough running N/S from Bihar to S.Tamil Nadu. 
Rains, goood amounts, are expected this week especially along the T.N. coast till Wednesday.

more on

Saturday, April 21, 2012

RT @saifarash: Partly cloudy skies,clouds will increase tonight, rain expected E Malapuram , Kozhikode - a pic 6.30pm
chennai - IPL match.. weather will be HOT, HUMID and with breeze from E-S-E
A strong circulation with heavy moisture is expected to reach central, N.Tamilnadu, chennai coast on 24,25-Apr..
Still COLA models expect the S.BAY circulation to become strong thru monday and reach Central,N.Tamilnadu coast on 25-Apr.!
chennai - sea breeze from E-S-E has started and temp. expected to reduce around 4:30pm
chennai - after having a high cloud cover till 12pm ... temp. at 3:10pm is 35.0°C and feels like 43.4°C ..#WoW
Today, the S.Bay circulation still persists but with less cloud activity around it...
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.00am, After yesday's fair weathr, today Sun is out with a vengeance, Clear sky, bright sunshine..
RT @saifarash: Heavy Rain and T'Storms E Malappuram Kozhikode a picture from my house 5pm today Kerala (20-Apr)

Friday, April 20, 2012

Monsoon likely to be below normal over south and northwest India..
W.D is entering into S-W.Kashmir now ! Showers seen S-W of Srinagar.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 7.00pm, Around evening the sky cleared and sun is out.. a pic at dusk
RT @rajugana: Baroda.. overall the day remains overcast with slight drizzles and reminds of monsoon days!!! a pic
RT @rajugana: Baroda - pleasant surprise the day begin with cloudy sky and it drizzled around 8.00am.. a pic
RT @krish_ajin: Heavy rain and wind in calicut Kerala (5:06pm)
4pm, T.showers seen over N,S.Kerala, S.Karnataka, N-E.Andhra, S.tip of Tamilnadu ...
Nagercoil - a strong T.shower is now over town .. 3:35pm
RT @jithinjb: Looks like it's gonna rain here in trivandrum kerala (3:21pm)
Today, T.showers possible again over S,central. Kerala and W,S-W.Maharastra ..
chennai - 11:10am, temp. 34.0°C and feels like 39.4°C and humidity around 54%
10am, S,S-central.Bay is having good cloud activity due to the circulation ...
COLA predicts that the S.Bay system will intensify to Marked LOW before reaching chennai coast on 24-Apr..
COLA predicts that the S.BAy system to intensify into Marked LOW or Depression and move near to chennai coast & then skirt along S-E coast
Strong circulation persists over S.Bay and it's slowly moving North into Bay..
On 19-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 44.0°C was recorded at Chandrapur (Maharashtra).
RT @rajendrrao: drizzling here in ahmedabad, got drenched in the rain while going to office...sensational... (11:29am)
RT @sukarnmaini: @apoorv3E It's raining right now in Gandhinagar (11:16am)

Thursday, April 19, 2012

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 6.55pm, After a partially cloudy day.. cloud cover at dusk.. a pic
T.showers expected for Rajasthan, W,S-W,N-W.Maharastra, W.ghats of Karnataka and central.Karnataka till 21/22-Apr..
T.showers expected for Rajasthan, W,S-W,N-W.Maharastra, W.ghats of Karnataka and central.Karnataka till 21/22-Apr..
W.D will enter into W.Kashmir by tonight.. Already T.showers seen over N.Rajasthan.
Rainfall map till 8:30am, 19-Apr-2012... scattered showers over N-E.states and All over Karnataka..
Rainfall map till 8:30am, 19-Apr-2012... scattered showers over N-E.states and All over Karnataka..
@fabwrite >> NO rain expected for chennai till Monday as per the latest models... instead High day temp. and High humidity to continue!
@fabwrite >> NO rain expected for chennai till Monday as per the latest models... instead High day temp. and High humidity to continue!
This is what COLA predicts for N.coastal Tamilnadu and chennai on 25-Apr ... a Depression ..
4:30pm, as expected today, T.showers popping over Rajasthan, N-W.Maharastra, pune and up to S.central Karnataka..
RT @saifarash: This time yesterday,I was sitting outside my house in the rain. A pict frm my house Malappuram Kerala
RT @punebookclub: Heyyllooo everyone! Its raining here in Pune! What would you love to read with that cup of tea and hot bhajjiyas! (5:31pm)
RT @dotball: CHN v PUNE, 24th Match: IPL Match is scheduled to start at 08:00 PM IST in Chennai, India.>> Is it raining in Pune ??
RT @sayali_91: @Indrani_S Yeah its rained in Pune and else where. And not just rain it was hailstorm. (5:26pm)
COLA predicts, Present S.Bay circulation to become more marked on Sunday and move North into Bay..
RT @saifarash: Summer Rain - Taken from Areekode , Kerala , India weather (4:44pm)
RT @saifarash: Summer Rain - Taken from Areekode , Kerala , India weather (4:44pm)
RT @saifarash: Summer Rain - Taken from Areekode , Kerala , India weather (4:44pm)
RT @rajugana: Baroda 4.40pm, Relief from scorching sun, as the sky remains overcast with dry clouds, will the clouds intensify to rain?

Diminishing natural resources

  • Petroleum reserve has been depleted day by day in an alarming rate. Government must act swiftly to distribute petrol and diesel in RATION. Every vehicle is entitled to have their legitimate right for the access of petrol / diesel products through ration shops or designated petroleum bunk / outlets.
  1. Petroleum / Diesel products should be restricted of all private / public / government vehicle.  Two wheelers may be entitled for 12 litres per month; four wheelers may be entitled for 40 litres per month(including Government Vehicle).
  2. The excess usage should have to be borne in competitive rates of the petroleum products by the individual/ owner or whoever they may be.
  3. There should be entry restrictions for private vehicle including two wheeler in main through fares / arterial roads during the peak hour and appropriate entry tax need to be collected using appropriate toll gates.Encouraging MRTS/ and other mass rapid transports (buses/EMU) in second tier / third tier cities and big villages.
  4. 18-20 % of daily commuter traffic in metropolitan cities can be curbed if e-governance or vantage location offices where every government/ private employee can work comfortably sitting in front of a terminal located  close to his residential locality.
chennai - Having a high cloud cover from Morning.. and this is slightly keeping the HEAT away.. temp. at 11:10am was 33.0°C
wow ... COLA models predict a Cyclone / depression over Bay in next 3 days and moving to hit chennai on 25-Apr !! more on that coming up..
10:30am, S,S-W Bay is very active for the past 2 days.. .. ... due to the strong circulation over S.Bay
10:30am, High cloud cover is over parts of West,N-W, Central and S.Peninsular India, including chennai..
RT @saifarash: After the heavy rain, nice morning #weather. cold, a view from my rooms window Kozhikode Kerala - 7am
RT @saifarash: Heavy Rain and T Storm in N#Kerala Kozhikode - a night rain pic from my house (11:16pm, 18-Apr)
On 18-Apr, The highest maximum temperature of 44.0°C was recorded at Chandrapur (Maharashtra)
RT @rajugana: Baroda 10.00am, High Cirrus clouds seen, Sun & Clouds play Hide n seek !!! looking for eveng T.Clouds n showers...

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

light to moderate rain in Karnataka

This satellite imegary shows widspread rainfall in many parts of Karnataka today. [18.4.2012/15Z]
RT @rajugana: Baroda 7.35pm, A Hot and humid day..Slight development of clouds in the eve.. .. a pic of sunset
RT @thehuzaifa: India’s weather officials predict normal monsoons this year
RT @subhash_pareek: Overcast sky,cool breeze,day temperature low at 22 degrees in Titabar,Jorhat district,Assam..Rain expected during night
RT @rahulpilot: watch live weather in Mangalore as it rains now with audio to hear thunder! WoW
kolkata - Metar report suggests Rain with thunder ... someone pls confirm!
RT @bheemaupadhyaya: @weatherofindia My brother informs me that its raining in Uppinangady, Karnataka. (5:25pm)
Hyderabad airport is reporting a Thunderstorm at 4:10pm metar report.
RT @nehavbisht: Love Hyderabad weather.. its sunny in the morning but by 2pm its all cloudy (like it wud rain)!!
COLA model is predicting a Cyclone / Depression / strong Low over S.central Bay to pop on Sunday !!!
Scattered showers for N-E states to continue till 24-Apr and beyond !
Some T.showers are expected to break over Gujarat, W,N-W.Maharastra from tomorrow till 22-Apr..
Strong T.showers for Kerala , S,central.Karnataka to continue till 24-Apr and beyond..
A fresh W.D will reach W.Kashmir on evening of 19-Apr.. and expected to last till 24/25-Apr..
RT @jadab777: Very Very hot sweety weather here in Bhubaneshwar India. (3:59pm)
COLA model suggests, By 22-Apr, S.Bay circulation is expected to become strong and move North into Bay..
Tomorrow, the area just south of Kanyakumari will pop a circulation and expected to persist for 2 days..
Today, both N.Arabian sea & N.Bay anti-cyclones are strong and S.Bay, Rajasthan is having a circulation..
chennai - good sea breeze has set in from E-S-E... temp. at 3:10pm was 34.0°C and feels like 40.6°C
A fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan from tomorrow onwards.
2:30pm, T.showers over N-E.Andhra, S.coastal Orissa, Central.Karnataka, Central.W.Ghat of Kerala and N.Tamilnadu..
RT @saifarash: Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers are expected in N Kerala Temp-32°C-pic frm Areekode town 2pm
RT @knowtheplace: Madurai is bloody hot today. According to it's 104 now but feels like 112.
chennai - temp. at 11:40am was 36.0°C .. and feels like 40.8°C
On 17-Apr, Highest maximum temperature of 43.4° C was recorded at Tirupathi (Andhra Pradesh) very near to chennai !!
Portrait of a Rainy Day in Bangalore >>
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 11.20am, Clear skies, sunny and windy. Yestday temp 39C, dry n humid. a pic -

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Bangalore - ipl .. expected rain arrived in city but late 11:30pm
rajugana: Baroda 9.20pm, Clouds developed in the evening, now cool breeze with slight drizzle. Something surprising, welcome relief !
8:30pm, T.showers over central Pakistan, central.Rajasthan .. .
bangalore - IPL , present T.shower over W-S-W of city may be moving West. !
bangalore - 8:30pm, a strong T.shower can be seen over W-S-W of city ... IPL match may be disturbed by drizzle/rain.
RT @saifarash: @weatherofindia India will have normal monsoon this year, no El Nino threat: IMD
Japanese researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the latest forecasts...
On 16-Apr, South India - Rentachintala, Andhra recorded the highest maximum temperature of 43 degree Celsius.

Japanese researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the latest forecasts

Japanese researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the latest forecasts.
They are forecasting a dismal July for most parts of the country, following a June which could be good in parts only.
Northern and eastern parts of north-west India and parts of east-central India might get to see normal rains during June.


But the rain is likely to fail the west coast up to Gujarat, scientists at the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo said.
Jammu and Kashmir, north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh are among the regions likely to benefit from June rains.
East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and coastal Orissa and adjoining coastal north Andhra, too, are projected to be gainers.
The crucial July month could likely prove a disaster, if the RIGC model is to be believed.
What could mess up the monsoon this year is the feared negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in which the east of the ocean warms up anomalously.


And the RIGC has retained the warning for ‘a weak negative IOD to evolve in early summer and peak towards the autumn.'
The monsoon is said to prosper when the reverse happens – warmth shifting to the west, as it happened on a trot on three years from 2006.
In other analysis, the RIGC said that the tropical Pacific condition has returned to a ‘neutral' state, ending a prolonged La Nina event.
This is what drove the successful monsoon years of 2010 and 2011 after a disastrous El Nino event in year 2009.
The neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year, the RIGC said. It has also forecast a colder winter for the US and Eurasia this year.


Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the outlook for a fresh western disturbance over north-west India by Friday.
The system will affect the western Himalayan region from Thursday onwards and adjoining plains from Friday, the IMD said.
According to global forecasts, the system will run with a bearing that weighs in anomalously to the south.
It is expected to hit southwest Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat (including Mumbai) and west Madhya Pradesh to bring in some wet weather. 
There's a chance of rain for mumbai on 19,20,21-Apr...
Due to upcoming W.D, T.showers will break out over Rajasthan, Gujarat, W,central.Maharastra, .. from 19-Apr till 21-Apr
For next 3 days showers expected for W,Central,S.Karnataka, N.Kerala ..
@rajugana >> there is chance of 1 or 2 T.shower for Baroda, mumbai, N-W.Maharastra, from 19-Apr to 22-Apr ..
From tomorrow till 23/24-Apr, a weak circulation will pop & prevail over S.Gulf Mannar and area South of Kanyakumari..
Yesterday's circulation over E-S-E Bay has weakened, but it'll emerge over S-E Bay on tomorrow and move West..
Today again, heavy moisture can be seen over Central,S.Kerala and S.Tamilnadu.. more showers expected ..
RT @premss79: Beach Chennai.
chennai - having a HOT day so far.. 2:40pm, temp is 35.0°C and feels like 41.9°C WoW. Sea breeze from E-S-E has set in just 15 min ago.
RT @scribblerer: Cool breeze, clouds,... It's gonna rain.... kochi kerala (12:58pm)
RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.45am, Clear skies, bright sunshine..Yestday temp 39.5C...heading for a hot & humid day...Clouds come this side !!!
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 11.35am, Now, some high cirrus clouds covering the sun..a pic thru window

Monday, April 16, 2012

July rains could fail India, says Japanese model

In our archive, Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we predicted July the month of extreme uncertainty for the monsoon because of a negative IOD. More so as it is the month that accounts for nearly 33% of the SW Monsoon.  Our model assumed a weak IOD maybe upto 4% deficiency for July.

But the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo forecast now say that things could go much worse - almost total failure of the monsoon during July.  If so, this is really bad news as next year we can expect another lean monsoon due to the weak El NiƱo event expected. 

Rule on monsoon forecasts to be eased

This is proving embarrassing. There actually exists a law prohibiting private agencies from forecasting the monsoon. This means that people like Rajesh Kapadia and me are law breakers as we published our monsoon forecasts! But there is good news. A change in a decade-old rule will allow private organizations in the country— and not just the India Meteorological Department (IMD)— to issue monsoon forecasts. Phew!

chennai - 4:10pm, temp. 34.0°C ... Sea breeze has set in from S-E ... temp. will go down in another 30 min
RT @saifarash: Clear skies nw Kozhikode 2pm,increasing clouds,chance for T shower at evening LIVE pic from my house
Some one asked, HOW "feels like" temperature is calculated?? Here it is... >>>