Saturday, November 30, 2013

RT @aash_tvm: It is Raining here! രാത്രിമഴ!
#trivandrum #kerala @weatherofindia (10:44pm)

10:35pm, 1st wave of sharp showers now nearing #Chennai coast.
Good Showers lashed Mahabalipuram town 15 min back.

8:45pm, light rain seen along Mahabalipuram coast around 60km South from #Chennai city.

Easterlies has almost reached Tamilnadu coast !

RT @svellika: @weatherofindia 9:20 a.m. Clear blue skies in Hyderabad. 

#Chennai - 1:05pm, After a clear morning, Easterlies effect is slowly setting in now.
It's cloudy with mild drizzles around.

12:30pm, Still cloudy over most of S-W,W,central Maharastra ... 
12:30pm, S Bay continues to be active with a low level circulation over S-S-E Bay ...
Easterlies has started to affect central, N Tamilnadu coast, S Andhra coast ... light rains witnessed so far.
Heavy showers towards evening.

Scattered & Moderate rain expected to start ALL along Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai from evening.
Expected to continue till Sunday evening.
HEAVY rain expected for S-E, S-coast, S Tamilnadu during next 24hrs.
More update on S Bay circulation after 4pm.

Friday, November 29, 2013

RT @sanjeevnaique: @weatherofindia its bright and sunny here in #Margao in #Goa at 5 p.m. 

6:30pm, Remnant of Cyclone LEHAR as medium high cloud cover is seen drifting over most of S,S-W,central Maharastra and over N Karnataka.
6:30pm, some light rain witnessed over S,S-W Maharastra and N Karnataka ... 
6:30pm, Satellite IR shows S,S-W Bay is very active and showers are nearing Tamilnadu coast.

#Chennai - 7:30pm, DRY and chill in air. Temperature around 26 C.
These conditions are expected to change in next 15hrs.

North #India Cold coming back !

COLD North #India ... today morning Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) records 6.2 °C.
But, Where is Muzaffarnagar ??

Today morning, #COLD over N India was slightly above normal ... Srinagar = -2 C ... other stations recorded 2 or 3 deg C above normal.

From 1-Dec, #COLD conditions are expected to be back over N,N-W,N-central, W, central and into East #India .

A weak W.D system will affect Kashmir on 1,2 Dec... scattered rain / snow possible.

S Bay is active while easterlies pushing towards Tamilnadu.

RT @svellika: @weatherofindia Hyderabad 6:45 a.m. Chilly. Overnight rain, but no drizzle at the moment. Overcast. 
RT @svellika: @weatherofindia Hyderabad 10:30 a.m. Already signs of clearing after a wet, drizzly morning! 

12:30pm, medium high cloud cover seen over most of Andhra, N Karnataka, S,S-E,E Maharastra .. showers possible today in these zones! 

As of morning, the easterlies has pushed upto S-central Bay.
Heavy activity seen over S Bay.

Signs of circulation already there.

A low level circulation will pop over S, S-S-E Bay in next 24hrs ... initially it's expected to drift West along with easterlies.

Showers from easterlies to start for central,S-E,N coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai from noon, Saturday.
RT @Badasaar: @weatherofindia Kakinada today - Normal winds from 11am. No heavy rain, just drizzling since 3pm. 

11pm, Remnant showers of LEHAR has now pushed into N Andhra and cloudiness has spread into E Maharastra as well .. 
29-Nov, before evening, scattered moderate rain expected over S-E,E Maharastra, N,N-E Andhra and into S Chatisgarh.

Meanwhile, a good easterlies is slowly pushing towards Tamilnadu coast... now it has reached to S-E central Bay.
Upcoming easterlies will give showers for central,N Tamilnadu from Saturday evening.
"Rainy Sunday" expected for most of Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and into some interior zones as well.
On Saturday, a weak low level circulation is expected to pop over S Bay.
A wet week ahead for most of Tamilnadu.

#Chennai - 12:13am, a dewy night with present temperature at 24 C.
Expected to touch a low of 22 C.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

LEHAR - "The wind speed was only 50 kph" official now.

LEHAR - showers now (5pm) seen pushing into central,N-central Andhra ... 
#Hyderabad - 5:45pm, light rain / drizzles seen over E,S-E of city at around 60km ... 

Indian cyclone weakens, authorities say no threat ..."The wind speed was only 50 kph" 

RT @svellika: 6:20 p.m. No rain yet in Secunderabad. Cloudy skies prevailed since 3 p.m. Then, bright sunshine at 5. Slightly humid. 

A strong easterlies has entered into S-E corner Bay,. this is expected to pop a fresh circulation over S Bay in 36hrs 
Expected to be an active December first week over South Bay ! LOW and even a Cyclone is expected !
Upcoming easterlies is expected to give widespread rain for entire Tamilnadu coast , #Chennai from Saturday !

Fast dissipating Depression "LEHAR"

Depression LEHAR seen thru satellite visible shot at 1:30pm ... HEAVY rain over Ongole zones ... 
1:30pm, visible shot shows that #Chennai high cloud cover is due to LEHAR's southern outer bands ... LESS convective activity seen !
The entire depression LEHAR is expected to dissipate along coast itself in next 12 to 18hrs.

Cyclone LEHAR crossed Central Andhra coast as Depression !!

2pm, Cyclone Lehar weakened to a Depression and crossed into central Andhra coast ... 
2pm, HEAVY, moderate rain has pushed into central Andhra coast ... 

#Chennai - 2:35pm, High cloud cover continues ... DRY and mild weather. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Strong easterlies of this N-E Monsoon season coming up !

A strong easterlies is slowly pushing into S-E corner Bay... expected to reach Tamilnadu coast on Saturday night.
Scattered rain expected for Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai from Saturday night thru Sunday.
A LOW is expected to get embedded in Easterlies over S Bay on Saturday !

... more on this easterlies and upcoming S Bay LOW on tomorrow evening report.

Cyclone LEHAR - 10:30pm, Where is it ?

Where is Cyclone LEHAR ? ... It has undergone rapid weakening during past 6hrs after 5pm ... 

At present, it's a cyclone with winds reaching to 60 to 80 kmph.
Going by the present weakening trend, it may be "shot down over sea itself".
The system will downgrade to Deep depression during next 6hrs and reach Machilipatnam and Ongole coast around morning.
Heavy rain is still expected along central,S-central,N Andhra coast during next 24hrs.
Showers may even reach upto Odisha coast tomorrow.
By evening of 28-Nov-2013, the entire system may fizzle out along Machilipatnam coast itself, similar to Cyclone Helen.

This rapid weakening is caused by DRY winds from N,N-W India, latest analysis show that the Cyclone is encircled by these dry winds. This parameter is coupled with "Not so favorable Sea surface temperature along coast" as well.

LEHAR - drifting into Machilipatnam's RADAR range

LEHAR now pushing into RADAR range of Machilipatnam... here's the RADAR image as of 6:30pm.
Showers nearing central, N Andhra coast.
The system continues to drift W-N-W, as of 5:30pm it is positioned here 14.30 N , 84.55 E.

Here's the satellite visible shot at 4:30pm shows Heavy convective activity seen over W,N-W quadrants and recent (6pm) cloud top temperatures reveal -42.6 C, this is sign of less convective activity, weakening.

Andhra Pradesh braces for Cyclone Lehar, landfall tomorrow ... 

LEHAR - Tracking W-N-W and winds nearing 145 kmph

LEHAR, has pushed W-N-W again during past 6hrs and intensity has slightly increased... Winds now reaching 145 kmph, pressure dropped 976 mb
Here's the latest position of Cyclone LEHAR plotted on Map ...
Now, LEHAR is aiming at Machilipatnam ... coast plotted here is expected to get almost 90% hit within next 24hrs..

As Cyclone LEHAR is moving W-N-W, threat to #Chennai is now 90% out of Question.
For #Chennai - Due to LEHAR, moderate or light rain possible after midnight and before tomorrow evening.

#Chennai - 11am, DRY so far. NO low cloud formations. Patches of high clouds observed. (outer bands of Cyclone Lehar)

LEHAR - S,central Andhra get ready, landfall expected near Ongole in next 24hrs.

Cyclone Lehar has drifted W-N-W again during past 12hrs.
It has intensified now with pressure around 980 mb and Winds reaching to 135 kmph.
Present convective activity is very good, recent cloud top temperature reached to -81.1 C
The core of the cyclone is now estimated around 101 km radius. (CORE = which has constant winds of above 60 kmph), the core size is almost double that of Cyclone HELEN.
Satellite visible at 9:30am shows the BIG cloud mass of LEHAR.

Position is plotted here... 13.43N,86.37E (9 am)

Now almost ALL weather models agree to a central, S-central Andhra coast... very near to Ongole with present intensity or as slightly weakened Cyclone on mid-morning of 28-Nov-2013.
Now, the outer bands are reaching S,central Andhra coast, #Chennai and N Tamilnadu coast.
Rain expected to start along S,central Andhra coast from late evening today.
Some showers also expected to push into #Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from midnight.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

LEHAR - maintains its intensity and reached 13N. Central Andhra coast landfall !

Analysis of Cyclone Lehar at 7:30pm, it has maintained its intensity ALL thru the day and moved W-N-W.
Now, pressure is same around 986 mb.
At present the Cyclone is interacting with DRY winds from N,N-W India.
During next 24hrs, it'll move into slightly colder waters. 
The system may not further intensify during the next 24hrs.
Present location is plotted here ... it has reached Central Bay parallel to #Chennai.

Latest track forecast by various weather models suggest a central Andhra coast by morning / noon of Thursday, 28-Nov-2013.

There are 2 anti-cyclones which is and "may" guide the system in next 24 to 36hrs.
A low, mid level anti-cyclone is expected to drift into N-E Bay from Myanmar.
The present upper level anti-cyclone over N-E Andhra and along S-E coast is expected to move N-E in 24hrs, these 2 systems will make sure the Cyclone moves in a W-N-W direction till tomorrow evening.

5pm, T showers has popped ALL along W-ghats from N-W Maharastra to S tip Tamilnadu... this is the 2nd consecutive day

Belgaum - 5pm, Got drizzles 

Davangere - 5:51pm, "After yesterday evening's heavy rain, today as well it's raining"

RT @sanjeevnaique: @weatherofindia #Margao in Goa - 6.30pm slight drizzle. 
Posted @ 6 pm IST: a Brief Note>>

Sub Tropical Ridge Western End shows a slight shifting towards the Indian Coast ( i.e.Shifting West). This would enable Lehar to maintain a NW track for the next 24/36 hrs.

The Very Severe Cyclone has maintained its strength at T4.0 since 07 PM IST till 17.30 pm IST..and winds estimated at 65 knts. Pressure estimate 985 mbar.

Currently the core centre, located at 12.9N and 89E, is moving along the Southern Periphery of the Ridge. 
A Sat Image showing the central core and upper winds has been shown here to gauge the Ridge as well as the fluctuating central core.

Lehar will now encounter drier air as it tracks towards the NW. The drier air is encircling the cyclone from the North-West and SW.

From vagaries

Cyclone LEHAR - GFS Surprise for #Chennai !

Latest GFS run at 11:30am suggests that Cyclone LEHAR is expected to track W, W-N-W and make landfall North of #Chennai near Nellore on Thursday !!
4pm, Cyclone LEHAR, has drifted W-N-W during past 6 hrs... Pressure around 985mb and Winds reaching upto 120 kmph.

RT @rajugana: 10.15am, Clear sky, Bright Sunshine; pleasant morning after overnight rains...Pic @ varthur lake..

#Chennai - 2:20pm,  a WARM day with mild DRY breeze from North. NO rain expected for another 24hrs.

LEHAR - 10am, Moved W-N-W and Intensified

Analysis of Cyclone LEHAR at 10am shows that the system has slowly moved W-N-W and intensified slightly during past 12hrs.
Now the core pressure is around 985 mb and winds gusting to 120 kmph.
Present position is plotted here ... it shows the system is almost parallel to #Chennai.

Here's the satellite visible shot at 10:30am. Present cloud top temperature is around -84.7C, suggesting deep convections.

Midnight analysis and forecast of track suggests that most of numeric weather models agree to Central, N-central Andhra coast, almost similar to Cyclone Helen.
COLA GFS model expects the cyclone to reach central Andhra coast by midnight of Wednesday.

DRY weather expected for Andhra coast, Tamilnadu coast during next 24 hrs.
Meanwhile, more rain ahead for W-ghats from S tip Tamilnadu to N-W Maharastra today as well.
HEAVY rain to persist for S Kerala and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.

Monday, November 25, 2013

6pm, Scattered rain witnessed over W,N-W Maharastra mostly along and near to W-Ghats.

RT @ganesh_jrg: @weatherofindia Sudden heavy downpour for the past 20 minutes in Bangalore. (6:54pm)

#Chennai - 7pm, Wind direction is from North, DRY and slightly COLD evening than previous 3 evenings.
"a cold morning ahead".

Today morning COLD North #India ... Srinagar = 1 C, Delhi AP = 13 C, Amristar = 10 C .. comparatively bit high than previous week lows. 

Heavy rain over S tip Tamilnadu and LEHAR update

RT @kannan2121: Heavy rain #Trivandrum and #Kanyakumari #Lightning #thunder @weatherofindia (5:19pm)

5pm, HEAVY rain again over S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu... 
and scattered T showers seen all along W-ghats from N-W Maharastra to S tip Tamilnadu ...

Cyclone LEHAR is slowly re-grouping again after the Andaman crossing ...
LEHAR at 5:30pm suggests "slightly weakened" .. pressure around 993mb and winds upto 110 kmph.
LEHAR, Satellite IR reveals Heavy convective activity over its E,S-E quadrants.
For LEHAR, HWRF model did not support "Significant Intensification" during next 48hrs ... 
Sea surface temperature over N,N-central, N-W, W,W-central Bay are just not good for Cyclone intensification ...

#Chennai - 10:53am, Warm with good cloud formation around. City, suburbs getting ready for a moderate localized Shower in next 1 / 2hr

LEHAR - 10am, Now it has crossed Andaman Islands.

Analysis at 9am suggests that Cyclone LEHAR has crossed Andaman Islands.
During the past 24hrs, it has not intensified much, maintaining the Pressure around 992mb, Winds gusting to 110 kmph.
Present position is plotted here ...

Visible satellite shot at 9:30am, reveals that most of its cloud mass and convective activity has left Andaman islands.

This was a report from Port Blair... taken from our Facebook page ..
"My friend Santosh Kumar Manchal right now he is in port blair , he informs me that 
the situation is very dangerous with gale winds and torrential rains , as we speak ...
port blair has received an astounding 151 mms in last 24 hrs , with max winds clocking at 120 km/h ...
Portblair, Andaman Island records 213 mm of rainfall till 8.30am today with winds gusting upto 130/kmph.

Most of the models suggest a N,central Andhra coast as Cyclone.
This is the latest forecast of track for LEHAR.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Sullurupeta - "we got some rain in morning"

More heavy rain for S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu.

Yesterday's #Bangalore rain was "Due to a low level circulation over N Karnataka, S Maharastra and Easterlies from Bay."

Due to a low level circulation over S Maharastra.. scattered rain expected over S,central,S-W, West Maharastra on today evening, Monday.
Before tomorrow evening, scattered heavy rain for S,S-central,S-W Karnataka, W,N-W,central,S Tamilnadu, central,S Kerala.
HEAVY rain for S Kerala and S tip Tamilnadu (Kanyakumari district) to continue during next 2 days.

"05B" named as Cyclone LEHAR

RT @jamewils: @weatherofindia now at Kottiyam, Kollam, Kerala we are receiving heavy rainfall...yep when it rains it pours! (12:24pm)

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 12.30pm, After overnight heavy downpour, today,  Bright Sunshine with passing clouds.. 

"05B" is named now as Cyclone LEHAR.
Position 10.16N , 94.20E.
Pressure around 989mb
Winds upto 115 kmph... 
12pm, Cyclone LEHAR, slowly pushing across Andaman Islands.

Invest 07 B

The IMD-NOAA envisaged "Tropical Cyclone Project" -[Hurricane WRF] generated the swath of wind at 10 m height.

As of now [24113/1130 hrs IST] H-WRF estimated Max wind about 66kts (at 10 m height over sea) and minimum pressure is  about 992 hPa.

  1. The invest 07B induces and creates outer band (arcs) that passes through 80 Deg East and 77 Deg East.
  2. This gives rain fall near North TN  coastal and  SW interior TN [along and off 10 Deg North]

Easterlies has pushed into Tamilnadu coast ... and rain seen ALL along interior, central,N Tamilnadu coast

RT @Ck_Mohammed: @weatherofindia @WeatherChennai Heavy Rain Over Coast Of #ECR & #Thiruvanmiyur ! #ThunderStroms Tooo .. ! (2:57am)

#Chennai - till 9am, IWM weather station recorded 4.5mm

#Chennai - 10:05am, WARM now with temperature around 30 C.
Showers expected towards evening.. this may be the last rain for next 4 days.

#Bangalore recorded 107mm till 8:30am today.
#Bangalore - more rain expected today as well... but may not materialize  till late evening due to yesterday's heavy downpour.

"05B" - Intensifies into Cyclone and first landfall expected over Little Andaman

7:30am ADT Analysis indicates that "05B" has intensified into a cyclone with pressure around 992mb.
Winds upto 110kmph.
During past 12hrs it has moved N-W, and present position is plotted here ...
Now it's nearing 10N, thereby removing the option of hitting central Tamilnadu coast.
The cyclone will be named as LEHAR in next 6hrs.

Satellite visible at 8am show deep convection over its N,N-W,N-E,E quadrants.

Cyclone is set to make its first landfall over Little Andaman, Indira bazaar zone in next 12hrs... and continue to move W-N-W into Bay.
Already HEAVY rain seen ALL over Andaman Islands... more heavy rain and high winds expected over the Islands during next 18hrs.

This is the latest JTWC forecast path for "05B"... a long way to go for Indian mainland.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Chennai - 11:20pm,  heavy rain seen all along Chennai coast at around 90 km  from  city. Heavy rain  may  push in by early morning.

RT @densabraham: @weatherofindia Raining in Thiruvalla,Kerala (4:21pm)
"92W" - JTWC issues Cyclone formation ALERT and tracking it as "05B"
RT @SaifArash: Heavy rain now @ Mukkam Bus station #Mukkam #Kozhikode #Kerala #Weather #India (3:01pm)

92W - Now a Well marked LOW over S-E corner of Bay

Analysis at 11:30am show good Wind wrapping over its center.
Pressure around 1003 mb and winds upto 60 kmph.

Present location is plotted here...

As of latest numeric models, IMD GFS and NAVGEM model suggests a N Andhra coast or Odisha coast landfall as Cyclone on 29-Nov.

But COLA GFS suggests same zone as that of Cyclone Helen (central Andhra coast)
At present it has slowly drifted W-N-W during past 12hrs.
The present upper level winds in that zone will guide the system W-N-W and cross Andamans into Bay at around 10N, 92 / 91E in next 36hrs.

Unusual rainfall in Bodinayakanur

It has been raining continuously  from mid night to 0700 hrs IST of date 23.11.2013.  IMD ARG at taluk office reported 117.0mm rainfall,  Flash floods in "Vanjathodai" was reported.. Human life loss and huts damage also reported.

  • The unusual rainfall at Bodinayakanur [Theni district] may be attributed to easterly wave propagation. 
  • Its influence is felt in NW parts of Tirunelveli district and Kanyakumari district too.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 2.20pm, It's pouring in S/East Bangalore...Sudden heavy downpour... 
RT @rajugana: Bangalore 1.55pm, Partially cloudy skies, slight drizzle in some parts of the city. sky

#Chennai - 2pm, WARM afternoon, with good signs of RAIN.
Moderate rain seen over Bay at 55km, E, N-E from city. May push in towards evening.

W.D have now reached Pakistan ... showers seen there and Kahmir is cloudy with scattered rain/snow expected in 24hrs 
1:30pm, Showers seen near central, N Tamilnadu coast from Bay ...

Today as well, showers expected for central, S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu and W-ghats of Kerala and Tamilnadu, expected to continue till Monday
Scattered showers expected to push into N,central-coast, Interior Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S Andhra coast by evening/night last till 24-Nov.

#Helen vanished, "92W" has pushed into S-E corner of Bay

#Cyclone #Helen has dissipated by crossing only 10km inland ... (something like 100 to 0 in 12 secs) ...
11:30pm, Satellite IR shows "almost nothing left of #Helen along Andhra coast" ... 

Some showers are expected to be along #Helen zone (central, N Andhra coast) during next 18hrs.
Meanwhile an Easterlies is expected to reach Tamilnadu, #Chennai coast by evening of Today, 23-Nov.
From evening of 23-Nov, scattered moderate rain expected ALL along S-E, central,N Taminadu coast and  #Chennai.
Showers along #Chennai, Coastal Tamilnadu is expected till Sunday evening, and the rain is expected to push into interior Tamilnadu.
More heavy T showers expected over S,central Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu and along W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu during next 2 days.

Along #Chennai, at present the low level winds are from East, mid level from N, N-N-W and upper level is from W,S-W.
#Chennai - "Unstable wind directions at various levels of height can lead to unstable weather , Rain."
#Chennai - 12:40am, Showers now seen over N,N-W,W-N-W suburbs of city.
Rain may push into city in next 2 hrs or towards morning.

#Helen has vanished and "92W" has pushed into S-E corner of Bay... with pressure around 1004mb.. 
Numeric models at present suggesting a N-W movement for "92W" intensifying into a Cyclone in next 3 days... 
For "92W", models suggest a central / N Andhra coast (or) Odisha coast on 29/30-Nov
If "92W" intensifies and moves N-W into central Bay... then DRY weather can be expected over MOST of #Tamilnadu from Monday.