Thursday, December 31, 2015

December 31, 2015 at 10:28PM

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December 31, 2015 at 10:18PM

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El Nino conditions expected to ease from Feb-2016

This chart shows the present Sea Surface Temperature anomaly over Pacific Ocean. Clearly shows the peak of El Nino !

The present peak of El Nino is expected to start easing from Jan/Feb-2016 and become Neutral just around start (Jun-2016) of SW Monsoon for India.

December 31, 2015 at 12:31PM

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December 31, 2015 at 12:13PM

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Is it a Hot December? Yes for South India, No for N,W India.

Today morning low temps across India..
Srinagar -3.3C
Amristar 3.2C
Jammu 7.2C
Lucknow 7.5C ...

#News :: Farmers bear the brunt of harsh winters in western India  .... 

North Tamilnadu is COLD today as well..
Dharmapuri, Tirupathur 16 C
Karur 17C.
Vellore 18C.
Chennai - today morning..
Nungambakkam 22.2 C
Airport 20.8 C
IWM Polichalur 21.7 C (6:24am) .. LIVE weather here.. 

Is it a #HOT December? a brief analysis...
#Delhi is marginally above normal by 0.36C
#Lucknow is marginally below normal by 0.32 C
In West India, Yesterday's HOTtest place in India #Surat is marginally below normal by 0.43 C
#Mumbai is also below normal by 0.36 C
It can be observed that many stations in South India is continuously recording above normal day temperatures.
#Cochin is marginally above normal by 0.82 C
#Chennai is above normal by 1 C. except during the 1 week of december.
Surprisingly #Bangalore has registered above normal Day temperatures ALL thru December, on an average it has recorded 2 C above normal.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

December 30, 2015 at 10:54PM

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December 30, 2015 at 10:49PM

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HOT day over many zones of W,SW,S India

Strong anti-cyclone persists over W,W-central India ...
Sea level easterly trough also persisting along SW,W coast upto S,SE Gujarat .. raising the day temperature..

#Hot #December
Today as well, many stations in W,SW,S India registered above 33 C day temp ... Surat 37.6 C ...

For S,SE,central coast Tamilnadu, the easterlies with less moisture persists and expected to strengthen in 36hrs..
Due to easterlies, scattered light / moderate rain expected for central-coast Tamilnadu below Pondicherry from late-evening, 31-Dec to 2-Jan
Scattered moderate rain will be back for SE,S-coast Tamilnadu from late-evening of 31-Dec and till 2/3-Jan..

December 30, 2015 at 07:19PM

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December 30, 2015 at 10:02AM

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December 30, 2015 at 09:54AM

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December 30, 2015 at 09:15AM

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December 30, 2015 at 01:59AM

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December 30, 2015 at 01:52AM

In 36 hrs, easterlies along Central, SE coast Tamilnadu is expected to pickup speed, meaning rain ahead. #weather

from Instagram

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

December 29, 2015 at 05:23PM

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December 29, 2015 at 04:02PM

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Monday, December 28, 2015

Warm day,night for Tamilnadu coast, Chennai till 1-Jan-2016

10pm, Weak convection seen near SE coast Tamilnadu, easterlies have weakened now ...
Present easterlies below 10th latitude has weakened now and it'll dry out in next 2 days..

Easterlies with "LESS" moisture is expected to persist ALL along Tamilnadu coast even till 2/3-Jan.
This'll keep day and night "warm"... 
30/31-Dec, mid,upper-level Easterly winds are expected to weaken over S,SW,SE Bay, Sign of NE monsoon shutting down ...

Meanwhile, scattered moderate / light rain will persist along SE,S coast Tamilnadu before midnight of 29-Dec...
Moderate to heavy rain possible for Point calimere to Rameswaram belt of Tamilnadu coast in next 36hrs !

#Chennai - to have warm (31c) day till 2pm and 23 C morning on 29,30-Dec.

Can get cloudy from 10am to 1pm on these days.

December 28, 2015 at 10:37AM

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December 28, 2015 at 10:36AM

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December 28, 2015 at 12:24AM

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December 28, 2015 at 12:15AM

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December 28, 2015 at 12:01AM

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December 27, 2015 at 11:57PM

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Sunday, December 27, 2015

December 27, 2015 at 11:54PM

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December 27, 2015 at 11:50PM

Easterlies affecting Srilanka, S,SE Tamilnadu now. #weather

from Instagram

December 27, 2015 at 11:40PM

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A Write up with Maps !

see Mumbai Page

Saturday, December 26, 2015

December 26, 2015 at 08:33PM

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December 26, 2015 at 07:01PM

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December 26, 2015 at 08:06AM

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December 26, 2015 at 08:18AM

7am, NW India getting cloudy due to WD. Light rain along central coast Andhra. #weather

from Instagram

December 26, 2015 at 08:02AM

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December 26, 2015 at 07:58AM

Today into Sunday morning, scattered light rain possible for S coast Andhra. #weather

from Instagram

December 26, 2015 at 07:18AM

Easterlies has reached up to Srilanka coast, will reach centr , SE coast Tamilnadu in 40hrs. #weather

from Instagram

Friday, December 25, 2015

On 26-Dec, a weak upper-level WD trough is expected to reach N Pakistan ...
Now, a WD upper,mid-level trough seen along Nepal and Uttarpradesh.
And, this is expected to drift east into NE States of India in 24hrs.

Till 8:30am of 24-Dec, many zones of N,NW,N-central India witnessed COLD day and night conditions.
COLD Christmas day morning expected over many zones of N,N-central and central (Madhyapradesh) India ...
Due to next WD, Saturday morning temp can be +1 or 2C than today over N,NW India., but Madhyapradesh will have COLD day, night.

From noon, evening of 26-Dec, scattered snow / rain for Kashmir and into N Himachal ...

26-Dec, light / moderate rain expected for S Andhra, N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai

Analysis show that the easterlies has reached upto S,S-central Bay with subdued moisture content ..
This easterlies is expected to reach Tamilnadu coast on 26-Dec..
With less moisture over N,central coast and better content over SE,S TN.
Due to easterlies, moderate to heavy rain expected for SE,S Tamilnadu and some zones of central-coast on 27-Dec ...

Today, at low-levels, a LWD and a weak circulation seen over S Chatisgarh, S Odisha and adjoining NE Andhra..
Due to this, good low-level moisture seen along Odisha, NNW Bay, NE Andhra and S Chatisgarh ...
11:40pm, 24-Dec.
S,central Odisha is cloudy with light rain and cloudy over S Bengal ...
In 36hrs, this moisture along Odisha coast is expected to be pushed S,SSW along SE coast India by anti cyclone over W India.
GFS expects this low-level moisture to be pushed upto S-coast Andhra and N-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai today evening..

This moisture along with easterlies is expected to pop low intensity showers along S,central coast Andhra from midnight of 25-Dec.
On 26-Dec, 1 or 2 light / moderate scattered rain expected over S-coast Andhra, N-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai ..
In the meantime, 26-Dec, easterlies will start giving showers along central-coast Tamilnadu.
Rain will be scattered, 1 or 2 will be heavy !
Shower activity along #Chennai and N-coast Tamilnadu is expected to persist only till mid-morning or noon of Sunday, 27-Dec !
Due to presence of real conditions in upper-levels over S-coast Andhra, N-coast TN, rains will be of less intensity ...

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

December 23, 2015 at 02:12PM

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December 23, 2015 at 02:08PM

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December 23, 2015 at 01:49PM

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Heavy / moderate rain ahead for S,central coast Tamilnadu after Christmas

Today, a good easterlies is seen pushing into SE Bay ...
Today, the easterlies along N,central coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai is bit strong with LESS moisture ...

1:40pm, that's Why there's cloud build up over Interior Tamilnadu.
Hot day in #Chennai , 32.4 C now...
Warm, slightly humid Day, above 22 C night temp expected along Tamilnadu coast, interior and #chennai on 24,25-Dec.

On 25-Dec, Christmas day.
A 23 C morning and cloudy, warm day expected along Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.

Easterlies will affect central,SE Tamilnadu coast on 26-Dec.. moderate rain expected with HEAVY over one or 2 places ..
The upcoming easterly wave is expected to be active below 12/11th latitude along Tamilnadu coast from 26-Dec.
On 26,27-Dec, Cloudy day, night for N-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai.
One or 2 light rain also possible.

Today, weak low-level circulation and a mini trough seen from E Madhyapradesh to E Maharastra, adjoining Chatisgarh ..

This'll create more scattered cloudy weather with light / moderate rain in next 36hrs over Chatisgarh, Jharkhand and NE Andhra.

Odisha may get one or two HEAVY rain too on today and before night of 24-Dec ...

Monday, December 21, 2015

Moderate rain possible for Central,SE coast Tamilnadu on 23,24-Dec

Cold morning for N,central,Coast Tamilnadu .. 
Chennai Airport 20.8C
Coimbatore 21.4 C
Dharmapuri 19.7 C
Karur 21 C

Past 24hrs, Isolated rain witnessed over W-ghats of Tirunelveli District.. Papanasam 2 Cm.
Rest of Tamilnadu was DRY after a long time !!

In South India Mysore records 15 C today morning !

In upper-levels, there's NO moisture over Tamilnadu, and will not be there for another 3 days..
From noon, 22-Dec to 24-Dec, morning.. easterlies is expected to be strong along N,central Tamilnadu coast with moderate low-level moisture.

Moderate rain expected along central,SE coast Tamilnadu from early hrs of 23-Dec to Thursday morning..
Cloudy with light rain / drizzle possible for #Chennai , N Tamilnadu on morning,mid morning of 23,24-Dec.
Slightly warm morning expected !

On 23-Dec, an easterlies is expected to push into SE Bay and expected to drift West towards Tamilnadu...
Upcoming easterlies "may" have a circulation over SSE Bay on 24-Dec.
GFS expects the easterlies to affect Tamilnadu coast below 11 parallel.

Sea surface temperature over S-central,W Bay is around 27 C and S,SE Bay is above 28 C, which can host a circulation ...
Wind Shear over S,SE Bay is moderate & Shear tendency showing decreasing values so a circulation can pop and persist ...
Models are not suggesting a strong circulation but a weak one along with easterlies over SSE Bay is a GOOD possibility over 7N.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

N,N-central India is having COLD nights ...
#Delhi 7 C
Hissar 4 C
Jammu 5 C
Srinagar -4 C
Jaipur 5 C
Lucknow 5 C

COLD nights & mornings ahead for most of N-central,central,W,E-central India for next 2 days..
Punjab is in for below normal night, morning temps till 21-Dec.
A sea level trough seen along NE Andhra and adjoining West Bay ...

This is expected to cause some light or moderate rain along NE Andhra and S Chatisgarh during next 36hrs..

RT @akarri: @weatherofindia >>
light rain in Visakhapatnam (10:29pm)

Tuticorin 12cm, One more day of T showers ahead !

9pm, Cloudy over S Tamilnadu with a lone T shower near Rameswaram.
Weakened T showers over S,central Kerala..

Tuticorin records another HEAVY rainfall till 8:30am today,
Tuticorin 12 cm
Surangudi 6 cm.

One more day of HEAVY T showers ahead for S,SE Tamilnadu and S Kerala, bcos of a easterly trough seen from Comorin sea to N-central Kerala !
This easterly trough is expected to T showers for South W-ghats of Kerala and Tamilnadu in next 24hrs..
This trough will vanish in next 24/36 hrs, bringing some DRY weather for S Tamilnadu, S Kerala for 3/4 days..

#Chennai - Temp now (10:22pm) is 26.1 C.
For next 2 days, it'll get partly cloudy from 10am to 1pm.
Day will touch max 31 C
Morning 23 C.

December 19, 2015 at 08:07PM

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Regional showers are likely in Southern Chattisgarh, adjoining East Vidharbh and Odisha ( some areas can get hail also). Some isolated patches of Eastern Odisha and coastal A.P. may get light rains.
Southern most parts of TN can get showers. A weak WD may bring precipitation to Northern most Pakistan and Kashmir region.

Showers may continue in Southern TN till 25th, while rest of the regions in the sub continent will be mostly dry from 22nd -25th December.

And a List of City forecasts in

December 19, 2015 at 12:51AM

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December 19, 2015 at 12:02AM

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December 19, 2015 at 12:00AM

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Friday, December 18, 2015

Upper-level WD trough has fizzled out. No WD expected during next 3 days.
Tonight, Saturday night .. COLD conditions expected over N,NW,N-central India ...

Already entire N,NW,N-central India is having below normal Day & Night temps.
Max temp...
Ambala 19 C
Shimla 9 C
Varanasi 22 C
#Delhi 21 C

RT @himanshunTOI: Mercury dips to 10.2 degree Celsius in #Nashik. Records new low of season !

In West India, Naliya records 9 C today morning !

Present circulation over S Arabian sea is better organized now. 
next 3 days, GFS does not expect this to intensify ..

By Monday, this S Arabian sea circulation is expected to move West and weaken after a mild intensification on Sunday.

HEAVY rain ahead for S,SE coast Tamilnadu in next 24hrs, then DRY

Heavy rainfall over S-coast Tamilnadu, rainfall till 8:30am today...
Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist) 7 cm
Latest analysis show.. a weak circulation over W Srilanka, Gulf Mannar,
an organized one over S Arabian sea..

Gulf Mannar is active again.
S,SE-coast Tamilnadu get ready for another round HEAVY rain towards midnight ...
For S,SE Tamilnadu, HEAVY T showers ahead tonight into early morning and one/two before Sunday morning ...
After Sunday evening, South Tamilnadu is expected to be DRY "after a long time" for next 2/3 days...

During next 36hrs, light/moderate rain possible over S-central, south W-ghats of Tamilnadu & Kerala and over S Kerala.

#Chennai - to remain dry at 31 C with low cloud formation from 10am to 1pm on Saturday.
19-Dec, morning will be 22 C
20,21-Dec, will be 21 C

December 18, 2015 at 11:22AM

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December 18, 2015 at 10:26AM

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December 18, 2015 at 10:24AM

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Thursday, December 17, 2015

Remnant of Typhoon Melor, Bay and NEM's last stand !

ECMWF and GFS are expecting the remnant of Melor to survive and pop a LOW over SE Bay on 23-Dec ..

But, NAVGEM model suggests only a new easterly wave to push into SE Bay on 23-Dec !! ...

Can Bay sustain a LOW / Depression at this time of year ?

Latest sea surface temp shows above 28 C from S-central to SE Bay below 14N.
Latest SST of Bay also shows COLD waters near Tamilnadu coast.

A LOW can sustain over SE Bay as of now ..

For a clear picture about Bay and NE monsoon's last stand for Tamilnadu coast, we've to wait till 22/23-Dec !

Easterlies for S,SE Tamilnadu. T showers ahead!

A weak easterlies is affecting E,SE Srilanka and its winds have reached Tamilnadu coast as well, but Dry..
11:50am, IR shows heavy convective activity due to easterlies along E-coast Srilanka, SSW Bay ... 

In next 36hrs, Easterlies is expected to affect S,SE,Central Tamilnadu below 11th or 10th parallel ...
Easterlies will be weak with less moisture at low-levels & almost NO moisture in upper-levels above 10N upto Chennai ...

Rainfall forecast for next 36hrs

From Morning to noon of Friday..
Scattered showers possible along Karaikal to Rameswaram.
From Friday noon to morning of 19-Dec...
Heavy / moderate T showers for S-tip,S,SE,S-central Tamilnadu ...
One or two HEAVY T showers possible for Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari district on Friday evening, midnight ...

Chennai & Pondicherry - on 18,19-Dec, it'll be cloudy, warm day and slightly warm night.
Drizzle possible from Early morning to 2pm.

Scattered T showers possible again over W-ghats, central, S Kerala on Friday and Saturday.