Thursday, November 14, 2013

The full moon & SST effect over cloud mass

[1] The Sea Surface Temperature close to Choramandal Coast are NOT so conducive for the development of convective clouds / TC

[2] The clouds continuously develop and dissipate in situ in between the region 82.8 Deg East  / 10.0 Deg North and 85.0 Deg East / 11.3 Deg North

[3] During full moon day [17/11/2013] due to gravitational pull it may come closer to land and cross with very fewer heavy spell,  But wind will be of the order of 30-40 knots.
#Chennai - 2:10pm, DRY so far with temp around 30 C. Stiff breeze from N-N-W. Less low cloud formations seen with hazy skies.

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 2.00pm, Sunny, warm and breezy., Patches of clouds in the sky.. a pic.

30W - Drifted S-W and Super Saturday (Heavy rain) for #Chennai, N,central Tamilnadu coast.

Latest analysis show that winds around the system is organized, While the satellite IR shows a exposed center with convective activity seen only over N-W,N, and N-E quadrants.

Position as of 12:30pm is 10.8 N , 85.2 E
Winds gusting upto 55 kmph
Pressure around 1000mb, so it is still a Depression.

NAVGEM model suggests a N-W track from now and landfall along #Chennai on evening of 15-Nov.

IMD, COLA GFS models suggest a central,N-central Tamilnadu coast landfall on 15-Nov-2013.

Moderate to heavy Rain expected to start along central, N Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai and S coast Andhra from noon/evening of 15-Nov.
Heavy and Very heavy rain expected in these zones towards early morning of 16-Nov (Saturday).
Forecast of Super Saturday for #Chennai, Tamilnadu coast is still valid.

The latest sat imagery & Sat wind [14.11.2013 /0030Z]

 The depression with 1000 hPa central pressure and lays centered about 600 km East /SE of KARAIKAL is getting organized and intensifying.

Gale winds [40-50 knots] with intermittent heavy rains [>125.0mm] may be experienced along and off Choramandal coast [Vedaranyam to Nellore] from 36 hrs now onwrds i.e on 15.11.2013 / 2000 hrs IST.

[Thanks to Shri SWP, meteorologist]