Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Highest in Asia on Tuesday:

Bhawalpur and Dal bandin (Pakistan) :45c.

Highest in India: Brahmapuri: 43.5c.

Kota at 31.6c and Bikaner at 30.9c were above 30c as the minimum in India.In Pakistan, Multan and Sibbi were at 30c as the low.

RT @varun959: Heavy rain in N. Bangalore. Saw couple of trucks broken down on my way back home. Roads flooded http://bit.ly/m6iFBj
5pm, lots of T.showers scattered all over S. peninsula (tamilnadu, kerala, karnataka, AP, Orissa) ... http://ping.fm/2ashk
Pacific cyclone "Songda" and South west Monsoon onset ... http://bit.ly/j3bwOC

Pacific cyclone and monsoon onset

India Meteorological Department
 (IMD) on Monday evening said that scattered rain or thundershowers would unfold over Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Wednesday and increase thereafter.
An extended outlook valid until Saturday said that the rains would become fairly widespread over extreme south peninsula and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
This clearly is thought to be a clear indicator of the approaching onset of southwest monsoon, being facilitated by a raging tropical cyclone, Songda, in the northwest Pacific. The cyclone system is part of the larger Asian monsoon system that covers the northwest Pacific, South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal, equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea.
Purely coincidental, formation of this cyclone would have some impact on the onset phase of the Indian monsoon, though seen largely beneficial in the preliminary analysis.
Songda is, however, is forecast by most models as intensifying into a super cyclone (of Category-4 strength and above) and racing away to north-northeast off the Philippines towards East China Sea and beyond.
All northwest Pacific cyclone systems tracking in east-northeast direction are considered inimical to the interests of the Indian monsoon since they would also wake away a lot of moisture with them.
The London-based Tropical Storm Risk group said that Songda might reach super cyclone status by Saturday.
This would mean that once the onset of monsoon over India's southwest coast is facilitated, Songda would divert moisture across the Bay of Bengal into Southeast Asia and pull the same towards itself.
In the process, the onset of monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Sri Lanka might take place one after the other. The normal timeline for the Andaman Sea onset if May 15 to 20.
Some other models, including Roundy-Albany and the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau, still see the possibility of a separate system developing in the Arabian Sea and clambering up north towards Mumbai-Gujarat region.
This is expected to happen during the first week of June, these models indicated, after the monsoon has set in over the Kerala coast.
Meanwhile, updated forecasts from both the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) seemed to indicate a largely normal monsoon for the country during the impending season.


Interestingly, the IRI has joined a group of Japanese researchers at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change in maintaining a watch for the possibility of a return of La Nina conditions in the equatorial east Pacific.
The IRI said in its latest update that the moderate to strong La Nina conditions observed between mid-August 2010 and early February 2011 has weakened during March and April, and dissipated to “neutral” conditions as of mid-May 2011.
For the May-July season currently in progress, it assessed that there is an approximately a 24 per cent probability for the equatorial east Pacific to return to La Nina conditions and a 63 per cent probability for remaining in neutral conditions.


There is only a low (13 per cent) probability for the development of El Nino conditions, which are not considered ideal for the Indian monsoon
SW Monsoon for kerala likely on 3/4-Jun-2011 ... http://bit.ly/jkLWMY

Monsoon Watch - 8

Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/

Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Arabian Sea. Winds over 30-35 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast.
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature falling along the Somali coast. It is presently around 26c. Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 15 days.
But the current fall is sufficient to help form Monsoon clouds off the Maldives. Cloud formation near Maldives is gathering, and in next 24 hrs, wind speed along the Maldives coast is estimated at 40 mph as per the country's Met Dept.
The ITCZ has moved up a bit and is now around the 3N region south of India, and in the 5N region in the Bay sector.
SWM should set in over the Maldives within next 36 hrs, that is by the 25th/26th May. Further advance into the Sri Lanka coast is possible around 26th/27th.
The Seasonal Low seems to have got punctured. With the M3 creating an undesirable situation, we see today's pressure at 1000 mb. Not enough to create a gradient to pull up SW winds into the mainland. The day temperatures on the SubContinent Northern plains have dropped since Saturday, and restricted the day's highs to around 40c. Across in Pakistan' Sindh region, the core for the formation of the low, the highest was 47c on Monday.
M3 HAS become the "kill joy" we had NOT hoped for !
M4 is seen on the horizon, and will be into Pak/India Northern regions from 26th May. Rainfall increasing into Nepal from 27th May.

The Bay sector has been unusually weak. Its lack of systems could be attributed to M3. Strong westerly currents prevent the formation of lows to move into the bay and towards the Indian mainland. They divert the forming currents.
As SW winds should pick up speed in the next 2 days, SWM "in situ", could advance into the bay Islands as a weak current on the 26th of May.
Better before the M4 reaches the region to spoil another "party".
Conclusion: SWM advancing into Maldives by 25th (late by 5 days) and Sri Lanka by the 26th of May (late by 2 days). Similarly, SWM moving into Bay Islands by the 26th of May.(Late by 5 days).
Advance into Kerala around expected date , 3rd/4th June. But, further advance needs monitoring. Formation of a system in the Arabian Sea possible in the first week of June.
RT @asury: @weatherofindia "Rains have started in bangalore" (4:30pm)
Chennai - Sea breeze sets in early ... and temp now 2:02pm is 35 deg C
Chennai - Touches 38 deg C at 1:15pm ... City is experiencing a LONG hot May !... Last year Cyclone Laila disrupted the Heat.
RT @eurocontrol: RT @heathrowairport: Flights to Scotland & Iceland are disrupted today due to the ashcloud. Iceland volcano again ..!
South West monsoon progress over S-W Arabian sea is good... and models suggest a perfect 1-Jun touch down over S. Kerala
A fresh W.D for W. kashmir will start from 26-May and will last till 31-May.
Chennai - ... after that it'll stay around a max of 37 deg C... and can expect showers after 4pm
Chennai - This is the final super heat week before Monsoon arrives over Kerala ...
Chennai - touches 37 deg C at 12:15pm.. and expected to reach upto 39 Deg C.
Monsoon nearing S. Kerala coast ... today also S. kerala got early morning showers !
RT @rajugana: On 23-May, From Goa, 8.30pm. Today it was sunny, clear skies, hot and very humid. Temp 33-26C.
On 23-May, Andhra super heat .. highest maximum temperature of 46.0 deg C has been recorded at Rentachintala (Andhra Pradesh)
SWM seen advancing into Maldives in next 36 hrs and Sri Lanka next 48 hrs...conditions getting favourable for Bay Islands as a weak current...more details here.