Thursday, December 17, 2015

Remnant of Typhoon Melor, Bay and NEM's last stand !

ECMWF and GFS are expecting the remnant of Melor to survive and pop a LOW over SE Bay on 23-Dec ..

But, NAVGEM model suggests only a new easterly wave to push into SE Bay on 23-Dec !! ...

Can Bay sustain a LOW / Depression at this time of year ?

Latest sea surface temp shows above 28 C from S-central to SE Bay below 14N.
Latest SST of Bay also shows COLD waters near Tamilnadu coast.

A LOW can sustain over SE Bay as of now ..

For a clear picture about Bay and NE monsoon's last stand for Tamilnadu coast, we've to wait till 22/23-Dec !

Easterlies for S,SE Tamilnadu. T showers ahead!

A weak easterlies is affecting E,SE Srilanka and its winds have reached Tamilnadu coast as well, but Dry..
11:50am, IR shows heavy convective activity due to easterlies along E-coast Srilanka, SSW Bay ... 

In next 36hrs, Easterlies is expected to affect S,SE,Central Tamilnadu below 11th or 10th parallel ...
Easterlies will be weak with less moisture at low-levels & almost NO moisture in upper-levels above 10N upto Chennai ...

Rainfall forecast for next 36hrs

From Morning to noon of Friday..
Scattered showers possible along Karaikal to Rameswaram.
From Friday noon to morning of 19-Dec...
Heavy / moderate T showers for S-tip,S,SE,S-central Tamilnadu ...
One or two HEAVY T showers possible for Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari district on Friday evening, midnight ...

Chennai & Pondicherry - on 18,19-Dec, it'll be cloudy, warm day and slightly warm night.
Drizzle possible from Early morning to 2pm.

Scattered T showers possible again over W-ghats, central, S Kerala on Friday and Saturday.

T showers ahead for Chatisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and S Bengal

Today, upper,mid-level WD trough is seen along N,NW India dipping to 25N.. ...

WD's low-level circulation is seen over N-central India, it's trough is creating a wind confluence over Chatisgarh..

11:50am, This wind confluence is already creating rain activity over Chatisgarh, adjoining E Madhyapradesh ..
As the upper-level WD trough is expected to move East and fizzle out in next 36hrs, the same will happen to this wind confluence as well.

On today and before noon/evening of Friday..
Scattered Heavy T showers for Chatisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, S Bengal ..
#Kolkata - Moderate / Heavy T showers expected today late-evening / midnight and another shower before evening of Friday.