Tuesday, October 28, 2014

#Chennai - Today had a DRY day. Now low-level winds is from N-N-E and expected to change to E-N-E in 36 hrs S-S-E bay circulation moves west

Scattered showers may push into N,central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai around morning, mid-morning.

5:30pm, less T showers today over Tamilnadu. T showers seen over S Tip, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nikQ 

A weak W.D circulation over N-central Pakistan is giving scattered showers  over N Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.. http://ow.ly/i/7nix8 
During next 24hrs, the W.D circulation is expected to drift E-N-E and vanish.

5:30pm, Severe smog visibility less than 500 meters in Kabarwala, S Punjab... ow.ly/i/7niRC

3:25pm, Rain in Lahore, Pakistan... Due to WD... ow.ly/i/7niZk

Nilofar - has intensified during past 6hrs..
Pressure now 959.7mb
Winds upto 185 kmph
"Drifted North".. http://ow.ly/i/7nfwt 

Here's the Cyclone Nilofar's intensity pattern so far.. http://ow.ly/i/7nfF7 
" during past 24hrs, weakening and strengthening seen "

RT @sanjeevnaique: Sun has just appeared here in Pune , temp. hovering around 26 deg cent with light cool breeze as no sign of rain 10:45am

Nilofar - slight weakening seen & drifted N-N-W

1pm, Visible shot shows a GOOD eye and good convective activity around center, N-E outer bands.
At present, Nilofar is a severe cyclone with minimum pressure at 982.2mb (have weakened during past 12hrs).
During past 15hrs, the system has drifted N-N-W ... present position is 16.12 N , 61.25 E.

In next 42hrs, under the influence of W.D trough the cyclone is expected to drift North and then N-E.

Latest models continue to suggest a N-E re-curve after nearing 20N and expected to intensify and then weaken before making landfall along Kutch, Gujarat on 1-Nov.
It may rapidly dissipate while reaching coast !

Lossing strength-NILOFAR

[1] The moisture feeder from South Indian Ocean for the system is cut off.

[2]Dry cold wind from land is engulfing the system. Thus prohibiting TC enhancement.

[3] The lack of clear upper air divergence or its shrinking flange  is a indicator
[4] However another wind shear closer to eastern side of the present location will brew cloud formation

[5] This same times may alter the track.  Winds from STH from Asiatic regions [i.e one at Mongolia , China ] is extending its tentacles from NE to Indian Continent including TN. 

[6] Yet another is just N-NW of India and influencing 'NILOFAR' movement.

[7] As of now the track is N NW and to change course to Indian West Coast to cross between Panjim to Gulf of Khambat.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" now a "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm"