Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Chasing the Monsoon has always been interesting, with the ups and downs in the progress.Weather men all over may get to my views here.The latest Monsoon Watch-5, is a bit long, hence this link.
India : Summer rainfall update .. http://ow.ly/1GMkC

Summer Rainfall update

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 4.5.2010
Cherrapunji 357 cm
Passighat 106 cm
Silchar 94 cm
Dibrugarh 80 cm
Itanagar 76 cm
Gangtok 74 cm
North Lakhimpur 62 cm

Tamilnadu toppers from 1.1.10 to 4.5.10
Pechiparai – 32 cm
Kodaikanal – 29 cm
Valparai – 23 cm
Kuzhithurai – 21 cm
Boothapandi – 20 cm

(with available data IMD publishes)
Posted by Pradeep John
What is "'AGNI NATCHATHIRAM" ?? ... http://ow.ly/1GMec


As such meteorologists in India and especially in TN never refer the word 'AGNI NATCHATHIRAM'. Perhaps ancient Tamil people in their climatology, might have classified this period [in the month of May]as hot summer period and named it as 'AGNI Natchathiram. There has been no reference in meteorological glossary, since hottest days may extend in June too.
But the wisdom of the ancient Tamils has to be considered.

Posted by Mr. Ponnachi G Son
6:30pm, Fresh western disturbance is crossing into Kashmir, and in another 24 hrs it'll be over Punjab & Rajasthan.. http://ow.ly/i/1nUl
6:30pm, Very heavy widespread showers over N-E states again .. http://ow.ly/i/1nUl
6:30pm, Isolated Showers over Madurai and along N-E corner of Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/1nUl
6:30pm, Heavy showers all along central madhya pradesh from West to East.. http://ow.ly/i/1nUl
@keyasmamma >> Did it rain in Pune today ?? pls update. Thanks
RT @keyasmamma: The clouds started peeping in pune.might be rain again.
Chennai - A dead thunder cell from S-W is over head now 6:30pm.
So far till 5pm, No showers over Kerala or Kerala western ghats.
5pm, new thunder cells over N-W maharastra over W. Ghats, N-E Andhra, S-E Bihar and central madhya pradesh.. http://ow.ly/i/1nPV
3:30pm, South peninsula thunder cells are not sustaining today as of 3:30pm,.. http://ow.ly/i/1nMB
RT @EcoSeed: Coca-cola franchisee runs on green fuel! http://bit.ly/cwVtPY coca-cola greenfuel biofuel greennews renewableenergy
@pradx >> Yes, only 2 people we know. Just put a mail to contact(at)indianweatherman.com. We'll get back with details. Thanks
@pradx >> NO nothing available in India. We have to get it from USA or UK. I think you know about the famous brands in this field.
http://ow.ly/i/1nIJ ... Entire Bay from South to North is active with thunder storms.
http://ow.ly/i/1nIJ ... Entire Bay from South to North is active with thunder storms.
2:30pm, Thunder storms over South, N-W and West Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1nIJ
2:30pm, We have thunder cells over S-E Madhyapradesh, S. Bangladesh, Central Andhra, W. Ghats of karnataka, S. Bihar.. http://ow.ly/i/1nIJ
Scattered rain/ thundershowers would occur over parts of Kerala, Tamilnadu, coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Trough now runs from Bihar to south west Bay of Bengal across Jharkhand, Orissa and west central Bay of Bengal between 2.1 Km and 6 Km
Rain map of 3-May,... http://ow.ly/i/1nIv
Rain on 3-May, Passighat-7, Portblair and Goalpara-4 each, Jorhat, Silchar and Halflong-3, Coimbatore, Tangla, Bankura and Degha-2 CM
RT @myviews4life:
Pleasant surprise:Rain lashed Salem and suburbs on Monday morning giving people ... http://tinyurl.com/3xjgrpm
Heat wave conditions have developed over some parts of Rajasthan
Lucknow : "Cloudy weather for now but heatwave to revive" .. http://ow.ly/1GEi7
Goa : "Drizzles lash State ahead of monsoons" .. . http://ow.ly/1GEhK
More about "Unknown light seen over Chennai" .. http://ow.ly/1GEh1
1:30pm,Thunder cells visible over Central Andhra, North Bay activity is dying down, Western disturbance nearing Kashmir. http://ow.ly/i/1nG1
The three-day India International Kite Festival "Kappad" .. http://ow.ly/1GEbW
More about MJO affecting the onset of South-west monsoon on 1-Jun-10 .. http://ow.ly/1GDGn
Latest MJO suggests that a DRY phase from 24-May to 12-Jun will/may disrupt the perfect onset of Monsoon over Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/1nE2
South-west monsoon onset over Andaman islands is expected on 17-May .. http://ow.ly/1GDEL

Bay warming up to signal escalated activity

The Bay of Bengal is forecast to increasingly witness escalation of activity over the next two weeks as pre-monsoon activity peaks to a high.


Initial signals from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) show that the long-delayed pre-monsoon ‘low' may take shape during this period.

NCEP projections show that the system may get generated over south-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and track south-southwest to hit southern Sri Lanka first.

The weakened system is shown to take a northward course then and aim the Kerala coast for a second hit.

Forecast until May 19 shows the southwest coast and adjoining south interior peninsula slipping under rain cover of varying intensity.

It may be too early to call an onset of monsoon anytime soon, but all major weather models are indicating the arrival of a wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave during the course of the next two weeks.

An MJO wave travels periodically from the west to east (covering Indian Ocean to the Pacific) and has alternating ‘wet' and ‘dry' phases.

These waves have been known to trigger monsoon onset, formation of low-pressure areas and cyclones on the one hand, and intra-seasonal ‘droughts' and rain shutouts on the other.

All major models surveyed seem to unanimously agree that the MJO wave would peter out by May 18, bringing forth a ‘dry phase' of the MJO wave. However, according to the Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) of the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), the wet phase of the incoming MJO wave would hold strong until May 24.


The ESRL has indicated that concentrated action of the MJO wave would be on view on extreme south peninsula around May 17, the normal time for monsoon onset over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The onset over these eastern islands, which is the first outpost for southwest monsoon in the territorial waters, is known to precede the onset over Kerala over the mainland by around two weeks.

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Bay have been hovering in the high-30 deg Celsius for sometime now.

It was particularly high around the Andaman and Nicobar islands and just to the southeast of the Kerala coast on Monday.

Meanwhile, pre-monsoon activity continued unabated over large parts of the country even as a weather-setting western disturbance aimed to cross the international border and enter into northwest India on Monday.

A weather-setting trough lay parked west to east from northeast Madhya Pradesh to Assam, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Monday.

It cut across north Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, north Bangladesh and Meghalaya with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation over north east Madhya Pradesh.

A north-south trough ran down from northeast Madhya Pradesh to the Tamil Nadu coast across east Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu with an embedded upper air circulation over Tamil Nadu.

The western disturbance over northeast Afghanistan and adjoining north Pakistan persisted with an induced upper air cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan. It is expected to impact the western Himalayan region with moderate strength.

Satellite imagery showed convective (thundershower-causing) clouds over parts of west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining east Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkhand and southwest Arabian Sea.

Low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) were seen over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, northeast Andaman Sea and the remaining parts of the country except Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

The IMD update warned of the possibility of isolated thunder squalls over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States during next two days.

Isolated thunder squalls are likely to occur over peninsular India and Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours while scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States.

Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms would occur over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and again from Thursday. Isolated thunder squalls would also occur over these regions during this period.

As for rest of the country, isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during next 24 hours.

Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over east India, peninsular India, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

No significant change is seen in maximum temperatures over parts of northwest, central, east and peninsular India during the next two days.
Thunder Showers cool interior Maharashtra.Lows,today, of 20c at Pune,Nasik and Aurangabad,with Mahableshwar at 18c.Thunder clouds disappearing from Maharashtra today.
Mumbai low at 28c, and clear skies today.
Tourists flock to Kufri to beat the heat ... http://ow.ly/1GCUh
Chennai - "Shiny object sighted" .. http://ow.ly/1GCR3
Chennai - Start of "Agni Natchathiram" recorded a max of 36.1°C (10:45am).. this will touch 38 or 39 around 10-May
Tamilnadu: ** Good News ** -- "Agni Natchathiram" has begun today and will continue till May 27
Early morning Sat. shot shows that all the remnant of yesterday evening's thunder cells has cleared out.. http://ow.ly/i/1ntZ
Chennai - Now 9:53am is having clear skies, sultry, temp is already 35.2°C and Signs of cloud formation over to south west.