Sunday, December 08, 2013

Madi - 10:30pm, Showing signs of weakening

MADI - Analysis at 10:30pm suggests pressure is still around 989mb and ADT observes a "Weakening trend during past 4hrs".
10:30pm, here's the latest position (13.66N , 84.86E) plot of Cyclone Madi ... 
Madi is expected to continue it's Northward drift and maintain its intensity during next 15hrs, till it reaches 14th parallel.
GFS model still expects a S-W re-curve after reaching 14N on Tuesday.
And hit central Tamilnadu coast as Depression 

The upper level ridge position

The VSCS "MADI" is located just east-SE of Kalpakkam

As of now the STH ridge has no significant role on the movement of "MADI"

However the upper level winds show a steering faction towards NE

Further SST is relatively warmer near TN coast.  This may lead to newer formation of vortex in Coramandal coast area.

Once the core is detached, development of new vortex near TN Coramandal coast is possible

Madi has moved North in a fast pace, may weaken over sea in next 48hrs

2:30pm, ADT analysis, Madi has moved rapidly in North direction and intensified during past 6hrs.
Position 13.39N , 84.08E
Pressure 989mb
Cyclone Madi is nearing the latitude where Cyclone Lehar lost its life.
Around 14N the V.Wind shear is high .. 

DRY air from N,N-W India is slowly encircling Cyclone Madi as of 11:30am analysis ... 
DRY air, Wind shear is expected to affect the Cyclone Madi's further intensification... in fact models expect the system to weaken in 36hrs

As of 3pm visible shot, Madi looks in good shape with good convective activity along core of system ... 

Going by model suggestions, 2 options for Madi,
1. Fizzle out around 14N, 85E
2. Weaken, then move S-W towards TN coast on/after Tuesday.
GFS continues to forecast a Northerly movement for 36hrs, then weaken and make a rapid S-W recurve towards central Tamilnadu coast on 11-Dec

Cycone Madi - Moved North, S-W re-curve expected after reaching 13N

10:30am, ADT analysis says pressure is around 990mb with winds upto 110kmph.
But US Navy analysis suggests pressure around 974mb.
During past 12hrs, Cyclone Madi has drifted N-N-E.
7:30am, Microwave imagery shows position is at 11.9N , 84.5E... 

11am, Visible shot shows Cyclone MADI is in verge of having a clear cut EYE ... 
Also shows it has crossed 12N

#Chennai - till 8:30am today IWM Polichalur station received 9mm of rainfall.
#Chennai - 11:40am, COLD Windy day again with sun peeping out at times.
Light rain may push in again after 1pm.

GFS predicts that MADI will continue to push North for next 2 days and take a S-W re-curve and approach Tamilnadu coast.
@surencal >> Here's the Forecast track based on latest GFS model... showing S-W re-curve after touching 13N .. 
During last 2 days, GFS has persisted with central Tamilnadu coast landfall for Cyclone Madi after reaching 13th Parallel.