Friday, May 29, 2015

Monsoon onset and complicated 1st week of June

Today, the low-level N-S LWD is seen from E-central, East India to N,N-W Tamilnadu ... 
Today, the HEAT along S-E coast of India is slightly lower, due to low-level winds from S, S-S-E that is from Bay.

Chennai - Airport records 40.3 C while Nungambakkam records 38.6 C.
In rest of India, especially N,central,E-central India the #HOT conditions continued and will continue !
#HOT conditions to continue over central, E-central, S-E coast upto N-E,central Tamilnadu on 30,31-May... 

Today, HEAVY rain occurred along W,N-W,S Karnataka due to slightly Westward drift of seasonal N-S trough over India.
Something like April.
Westward drift of N-S trough can be attributed to the S central Bay's mid,upper-level circulation and West movement 
Today, the upper-level circulation is also seen over same S-central Bay and seen drifting West... 

By 1-Jun, both the mid, upper-level S-central Bay circulation is expected to drift near to N-coast Tamilnadu... 
This is expected to launch the SW Monsoon along S-coast Kerala on 2-Jun as a weak current ! 
To make things worse, a mid, low-level circulation is expected on 2/3-Jun over S,S-E Arabian sea and models suggest a strengthening !
@MODIfiedLiv >> With NO LOW in North or central Bay .. the Monsoon start is expected to be weak atleast for 3/5 days along Kerala coast.

On 30-May...
HEAVY T showers again for W-ghats Kerala, N,N-W,S-W,S Karnataka and N,N-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu ... 
On Sunday, 31-May...
More T showers for W,S-W,S,S-central Karnataka and this time some heavy along Karnataka coast as well.
On Sunday into Monday... Monsoon style showers possible along Kerala coast, S-coast Karnataka and S-tip Tamilnadu 
More rain for N,N-W,w-ghats,N-central Tamilnadu on Sunday, 31-May.

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 10:40PM

Dharwad - aftermath of today evening's heavy T shower. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 07:59PM

6:30pm, visible shows the T showers over S,W,NW Karnataka. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 05:30PM

5:20pm, Bangalore - a T shower is approaching city from East. Raining now 5:30. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 04:17PM

3:43pm, Tumkur - Thunder clouds approaching from north, north east. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 03:21PM

3pm, a heavy T shower line seen from 80km west of Chennai to 230km. Drifting South. #weather

from Instagram

May 29, 2015 at 02:55PM

Belgaum - 2:52pm, Rain started here in sambra airport. #iwm

May 29, 2015 at 02:54PM

Srinagar - 2:50pm, Rain started in srinagar. #iwm

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 02:42PM

2:39pm, Thunderclouds seen over south east from belgaum. #weather

from Instagram

May 29, 2015 at 01:07PM

Chennai - 1pm, temp now is 36.1 C and touched a max of 38.1 C. Now sea breeze has set in so less chance of temp going up. #iwm

May 29, 2015 at 01:05PM

Mahape, Navi Mumbai - current temp 36.8c with 62% humidity. Real feel 52c Badlapur - 36c with 56% humidity. Real feel 46c - 1 pm. #iwm

The temporary "Burst effect" of monsoonal winds in AS

 My meteorological Guru told about the WEAK establishment of 'MASCERE HIGH" in its normal position.  Further the strength of the other ensemble "High" near 90 Deg East is prominent.
This will give (pseudo) wind penetration in Arabian Sea.

It is clear SWM is dominant along 4 Deg North. [Mali] and in Andamans.

This sort of weather will enhance day time temperature further in the 'TEMPERATURE HOT BED "  locations in TN & Telengana and AP.  This is mainly due to continental-DRY westerly or HOT DRY north westerly winds from deserts in NW locations.