Tuesday, May 31, 2016

May 31, 2016 at 07:09PM

Belgaum - 6:30pm, thundering over East from city. #weather

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May 31, 2016 at 04:29PM

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May 31, 2016 at 04:27PM

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May 31, 2016 at 04:22PM

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May 31, 2016 at 04:19PM

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May 31, 2016 at 04:08PM

3:20pm, Heavy rain in #Bangalore . #weather

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Monday, May 30, 2016

Monsoon Watch -5...
Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay and Arabian Sea. Winds over 40 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast, and upto 40 knts winds, rushing towards NE,  are also seen in the Bay.
Winds off the Sri Lanka coast have picked up considerably.

Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature falling sufficiently along the Somali coast. It is presently around 18/20c.....
For full article see Vagaries
RT @AxPn:  8:23pm, heavy rains lashing #Bengaluru now !

8:20pm, scattered rain along Karnataka coast and Kerala coast.
T showers over NW Tamilnadu into S Karnataka... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jQ4Yt.jpg
8pm, Line of T showers seen along coast from NE Andhra to Odisha to S,E Bengal ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jQ5B1.jpg

Sunday, May 29, 2016

May 29, 2016 at 09:11AM

Davangere - 9am, cloudy and getting ready for a shower later. #weather

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Saturday, May 28, 2016

May 28, 2016 at 11:23PM

Bangalore today evening T showers. #weather

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May 28, 2016 at 07:43PM

6pm, a super photo of T shower near Thirupathi. #weather

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May 28, 2016 at 07:18PM

4:20pm, T shower approaching Mysore from SW. #weather

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Monsoon to reach Kerala on 5-Jun-2016

At low-levels (850hpa) the winds have picked up speed and more of WNW along S-coast Kerala. 
Monsoon style rains to continue for coast !
For S-coast Kerala the low-levels are expected to be W,WNW during next 2 days with good strength.

Monsoon for S Kerala is expected on 5-Jun ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jNxLt.jpg

During next 2 days... "Monsoon style" moderate showers to continue along S,central Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu W-ghats .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jNxPM.jpg
Today evening and on Sunday evening...
Scattered T showers will pop over central,N,NW,NE Tamilnadu and into S,SW,SE Karnataka and S Andhra
Today and Sunday..
#Chennai to have #HOT day till 4pm and "chance (40%)" of a T shower over NW,W,SW,S suburbs.
Bangalore to get "more T showers" after 4pm on today and Sunday !

May 28, 2016 at 11:40AM

This is Surat at 10:30am, good cloud formations observed. #weather

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May 28, 2016 at 11:34AM

8:30am, out of Bangalore, Kanakpura road. #weather

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Friday, May 27, 2016

May 27, 2016 at 06:26PM

6:20pm, Shahdol - after heavy T shower. Loud thunder even now. #weather

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May 27, 2016 at 06:23PM

6:10pm, as viewed from Pune #weather

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May 27, 2016 at 06:13PM

5:15pm, somewhere near Chennai. #weather thanks @chennairains

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May 27, 2016 at 02:49PM

2:40pm, Dohnavur. Showers seen. #weather

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May 27, 2016 at 02:48PM

A weather pic from Surat at 12:50pm. #weather

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May 27, 2016 at 02:44PM

12:50pm, heavy rain in Thiruvattar, s-tip Tamilnadu. Thanks @pradeepjohn #weather

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May 27, 2016 at 12:28PM

12:15pm, T showers over Kalakkad hills, s-tip Tamilnadu. #weather

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May 27, 2016 at 12:24PM

Monsoon is near over s-tip Tamilnadu. Photo at 8:50am today. #weather

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#Chennai - Woke up to a cloudy morning with drizzles / light rain, due to a T shower system near coast over Sea ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jL8ym.jpg
7am, visible shows the thunder cell tower near coast of #Chennai .. http://ow.ly/3i8k300Di5r

7:20am, #Chennai RADAR shows that the thunder shower is drifting (SSE) away from city.... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jL8GC.jpg

#Chennai - 7:52am, The tail of the T cell is over the city and it'll be cloudy with mild drizzles even till 11am and beyond !

Thursday, May 26, 2016

May 26, 2016 at 11:04PM

7:50pm, Ahmedabad, suburbs got some rain. #weather

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May 26, 2016 at 07:46PM

Mysore - 7pm, T shower seen over North East. #weather

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May 26, 2016 at 07:43PM

Bangalore - 6:15pm, T cell. #weather

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May 26, 2016 at 06:17PM

Shahdol - Evening, 25-May, weather friend quotes "Heaviest dust storm of the history.." #weather

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Monsoon on 1-Jun or 5-Jun ??

Morning, early morning rain again along S,central-coast Kerala .. Sign of monsoon is taking shape .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jJ9p4.jpg

For Monsoon to set-in along Kerala coast, the winds upto 700hpa levels should turn Westerly and pickup speed.
At present it's NW and weak.
Another factor for Monsoon onset, the 200hpa level jet have turned Easterly upto 15N, which is good ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jJa0j.jpg

Latest GFS run shows, that Monsoon set-in can be expected only on or after 1-Jun, and that too for S #Kerala .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jJagc.jpg
.. and full fledged Monsoon onset over #Kerala expected on/ after 4-Jun... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jJavs.jpg
Remember, IMD has already announced that #Monsoon is expected to reach #Kerala coast around 5/7-Jun .. http://ow.ly/RbQ5300BddT

Meanwhile more Rain ahead (next 36hrs) for #Kerala  coast and it's W-ghats !
Important, Super #HOT conditions will continue over entire S,central,N,SE peninsula except along SW coast for 3 days ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jJbma.jpg

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

May 25, 2016 at 05:51PM

S-tip Tamilnadu, today morning and evening photo. Its almost SW monsoon. #weather

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May 25, 2016 at 05:41PM

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May 25, 2016 at 03:36PM

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May 25, 2016 at 03:34PM

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RT @arjunbkool: 
2:33pm, Kochi - The rains are back..#rooftop #kerala hope it stays forever.. ^_^ https://t.co/FU9v7eKxge 

2:40pm, Heavy rain over S,central Kerala, it's like monsoon !!
T showers popping from central Odisha to S,E Bengal.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jHblj.jpg

May 25, 2016 at 03:00PM

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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

May 24, 2016 at 04:12PM

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May 24, 2016 at 04:11PM

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May 24, 2016 at 02:08AM

23-May, evening in Rohtak after a heavy T shower. #weather

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Kolkata - Thunder storm on 23-May

Monday, May 23, 2016

May 23, 2016 at 11:36PM

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May 23, 2016 at 11:31PM

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May 23, 2016 at 11:22PM

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May 23, 2016 at 09:25PM

Delhi - dust storm at 3:50pm. #weather

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May 23, 2016 at 09:23PM

3:20pm, S Punjab - dust storm and T shower. Really dark. #weather

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Monsoon expected over S Kerala on 28/29-May

6:30pm, HEAVY T showers over Haryana into W Uttarpradesh, N Chatisgarh, central,N Odisha .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jD9J4.jpg

Weather parameters are getting ready for Monsoon onset over S Peninsula in next 5 days !.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jDnKB.jpg
NW India, Pakistan heat LOW is around 996mb.
And its trough to East (Monsoon axis) is in good shape ! http://ow.ly/1nXH300utRV
"Good" East coast trough from N Bengal, Bihar is seen dipping upto SE Tamilnadu.. and the west coast trough is also taking shape !

N,N-central Arabian sea is getting ready to host a circulation due to the strong rush of Somali jet into S,SW Arabian sea.
Monsoon is expected to set foot over S Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu on 28/29-May ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jDpLt.jpg

May 23, 2016 at 02:25PM

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May 23, 2016 at 02:23PM

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May 23, 2016 at 02:18PM

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Sunday, May 22, 2016

May 22, 2016 at 02:21PM

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May 22, 2016 at 01:31PM

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Saturday, May 21, 2016

The performance of Vagaries' Monsoon Watch Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region during June to SWM withdrawal in 2 phases. (June/July and August/September). 

Why in 2 phases ? Because, I believe it is impossible to give actual Quantum forecast now (In May) for sometime in September...that is 120 days ahead !). I am not competent to give a forecast 90 - 120 days in advance, so Monsoon forecast will be  
1)...For June and July and 
2)... August and September ..this is tentative and will be published in first week July.

A) First 15 days of June sees 
i) Monsoon advancing from Kerala thru upto Central India, and into NE States and West Bengal.
ii) Heat ( Normal to above Normal) in Northern India, and Pakistan. 
Monsoon advances into Central India and North India between 20th - 30th June. 
iii) Monsoon moves into Pakistan around 5th - 12th of July.

B) Mid June to July end, we can see normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of  Sub-Continent regions. Weak Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months could see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.

Full Article in www.vagaries.in

May 21, 2016 at 09:46PM

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May 21, 2016 at 09:40PM

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The last of Cyclone Roanu

Cyclone #Roanu made landfall over SSE Bangladesh coast  at around 11am IST... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jAM0Q.jpg

8:30pm, Remnant of #Roanu now lies over Southern states of  NE-states India as a Depression, "HEAVY" rain continues .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/jAMkY.gif

Remnant of #Roanu is expected to fizzle out over Southern states of NE-states of India in next 18hrs... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jAMAg.jpg

.. and widespread HEAVY rain will persist in this zone for next 15hrs !
#Flood #Alert !

"Deaths as Cyclone Roanu pounds Bangladesh" ... http://ow.ly/Ck8C300rkIn
Cyclone #Roanu video from #Bangladesh ...

May 21, 2016 at 11:33AM

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May 21, 2016 at 09:55AM

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Roanu - Bangladesh, landfall in next 4 hrs

#Roanu - 8:30am, marching towards #Bangladesh coast for the kill. "Take cover" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/jAkBL.gif

#Roanu at present is a slightly intensified system with winds gusting to 105kmph, pressure at 982mb.

#Roanu landfall expected in next 4/5hrs near to Chittagong ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/jAkJC.gif

9am, #Roanu Heavy convective activity seen around system, Rain pushing into South states of NE states India, Myanmar .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jAkSU.jpg

Friday, May 20, 2016

Records on 19th May 2016:

Phalodi 51.0,Churu 50.2,Bikaner 49.5 (previous was in 1914),Jodhpur 48.8,Pilani 47.5
Ahmedabad 48.0  (previous was in 1916), Amreli 46.8
Udaipur 46.4 tied.
Erinpura (India) max. 48.4 ,Sawai Madhopur (India) max. 48.7 ,Jalore (India) max. 48.9

Source Extreme Temps Maximiliano

From www.vagaries.in

Eraniel, S-tip Tamilnadu records 24cm - one more day of rain ahead.

SW Monsoon is slowly getting established over S,SE Bay supported by Cyclone #Roanu 's pull effect ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jyUUs.jpg
At low-levels, the pull-effect of #Roanu has pushed HEAVY rain along S Kerala and into S-tip Tamilnadu, more ahead ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jyVeN.jpg

SW Monsoon current over S,SE Bay, Andaman Islands can be judged only after #Roanu 's dissipation, that is after Sunday.

Till 8:30am today, HEAVY rainfall over Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra, S Karnataka...
Eraniel (s-tip Tamilnadu) 24cm
Trivandrum AP 14cm.
More HEAVY rain ahead for S,central-coast  Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu after midnight today... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jyWJU.jpg

In 24hrs, scattered T-showers possible over S,central Andhra, N,NW,NE Tamilnadu into S,SE Karnataka !

Roanu - Bangladesh get ready

#Roanu at 5pm, "Maintaining intensity regardless of land proximity" and tracking NE. Now along S-coast Odisha.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/jyMxZ.gif
#Roanu to continue its NE journey and expected to intensify further in 24/36hrs and make landfall over S Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jyNXF.jpg

#Alert #Roanu 
"Bangladesh get ready" .. landfall expected in next 24 hrs just west of Chittagong ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jyOpQ.jpg

5:30pm, T showers E Maharastra, central,S Madhyapradesh.
Cloudy Odisha,S Bengal due to #Roanu, Kerala coast rainfall .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/jyOQH.jpg
Kolkata - RADAR at 5:50pm, shows showers due to outer band of #Roanu has pushed upto S Bengala and NE Odisha... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/jyPKY.gif