Monday, November 18, 2013

Latest on Bay circulation "91B"

5:30pm, Wind analysis show that the circulation over E-central Bay is getting organized, currently positioned at 14.1 N , 88.3 E.
Pressure around 1007mb.
The nature of the circulation is elongated from North to South.

8pm, Satellite IR shows good convective activity over N,N-E,E quadrants and the system is seen getting a good circular feature.

NAVGEM model indicates a Westerly track and then W-S-W towards N Tamilnadu coast during next 36hrs.

But GFS model suggests a N-W or W-N-W track and then a small S-W drift towards S Andhra coast.
Both the models expect the system to make landfall as LOW on evening or midnight of Wednesday, 20-Nov.

Till Wednesday evening less showers for S Andhra coast, N,central Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.
Showers expected to continue over W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu, S,S-central Tamilnadu till evening of Wednesday, 20-Nov.
#Bangalore - 5:40pm, "Heavy rain over Bannerghatta road, Domlur zones" ...

6pm, HEAVY rain over central, S, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala and into S Karnataka ...

More cold nights ahead for N,central,N-W,E,S-central India

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 2.30pm, Dark passing clouds in the morning, however Sky cleared ..a pic clicked at 9.00am 

3pm, Scattered moderate rain seen over central, central-coast, S tip Tamilnadu ... 

Adampur (Punjab) and Najibabad (Uttar Pradesh) records a low temp of 6.5 C today morning.

A weak upper level W.D trough is expected to touch N,N-W Kashmir on Wednesday ...

November COLD conditions over N,N-W,Central,East India is expected to persist during next 3 nights,mornings ... 
Even more, the COLD conditions are expected to penetrate into S Maharastra, N,N-central Karantaka, N Andhra, Odisha and Chatisgarh in 2days 
During the past 7 days, Night temps are below normal over MOST zones in India, especially over N-central,East-central 

Fresh LOW over E-central Bay - "91B"

RT @joesat: @weatherofindia #Chennai #palavakkam Monday morning blues as it rains consistent and gloomy 8:00 am. 
#Chennai - Polichalur zone got good heavy drizzle from 8:45am to 10am.
#Chennai - 1pm, showers seen near East of Kanchipuram town. Cloudy with mild temperature now.

Today, another circulation has popped over E-central Bay ... 
A good easterlies is behind this system.

1pm, Satellite IR show good circulation and convective activity around the system, and being tracked as "91B" ... 
12:30pm, Latest satellite IR also show heavy showers along central Tamilnadu coast and S tip Tamilnadu ... 

The fresh LOW over E-central Bay "91B" .. expected to move W-N-W initially without much intensification during next 36hrs.
Due to good easterlies, "91B" may swiftly reach S,central Andhra coast as a Marked LOW on 20-Nov, Wednesday ... 
Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai expected to have LESS rain on Tuesday, till Wednesday noon.
Due to 91B, Heavy/moderate rain expected to start along S,Central Andhra coast and even over N coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai on evening, 20-Nov

In the meantime another LOW is expected to push into S-E Bay on 21-Nov... this can become Cyclone "Helen" and reach N Tamilnadu coast.