Sunday, July 04, 2010

The UAC has weakened and moved away west as a very weak circulation in the Arabian sea off the Okha coast.
An area of low presuure,998 mb, has descended from the upper atmosphere, and formed at sea level over M.P.(Thai Map)
This event has shifted the monsoon trough southwards, and on Sunday,passes through Phalodi, Ajmer, centre of the mentioned low, Nagpur, Jagdalpur, Visakhapatnam and
thence southeastwards to southeast Bay of Bengal. It extends upto mid tropospheric levels and passes through Dahanu, Ramagundam, Kakinada and thence
southeastwards to southeast Bay of Bengal. The off-shore trough at sea level from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists.
With this, hopes of reasonable rainfall resuming in the central regoins of the country have brightened.

A fresh low pressure is forming in the bay, and is expected to become stronger and move towards the Orissa coast in the next couple of days. The system could be expected to cross the Orissa coast around the 6th, and move inland. Hence, heavy rains could be estimated for the A.P./Orissa coast from the 6th,Tuesday, and increase in the next 2 days. As the system moves thru the central regions of the country, monsoon could get activated, and rainfall ( to the tune of 40-60 mms/day) could be forecasted for the entire M.P.and Maharashtra coastal regions from Tuesday thru Friday. (I go by the COLA forecast of system crossing on 6th).
But, the interiors of Maharashtra and Karnataka may have to continue with the minimum of rains, without substantial increase next week.

Total rainfall during the past 24 hours at 193 available stations in the plains, out of 291 stations, is 242 cms. Normal for the above 193 stations is 58 cms.

Realised rainfall & Chief amounts (in cms) during past 24 hrs enede Sunday Morning:
Cherrapunji 13.2, Haflong 7.5,
Wardha 9.9, Guna 7.4, Sheopur 4.6, Khajurao 4.3,
Mumbai (Colaba) 14.9, Bagsra 14.2, Alibag 10.7, Jamnagar IAF 10.4, Baroda City 10.3, Rajkot 9.5, Thasra 8.4,
Cannur 6.7, Balasionor & Halol 6.6 each, Panambur 6.0,

Now, the North-West and the Northern region are yet to recieve the Monsoon. With the Monsoon having advanced more into the North today, the day temperatures have fallen to some extent.
Highest in Asia today: Dal Bandin (Pakistan) and Basra (Iraq) : 47c
Highest in India:Jaisalmer: 43c.

Mumbai: Surging ahead ! Mumbai Colaba is moving ahead with having recieved 52% of its monsoon quota by the 4th. of July ! With a fresh addition of 149 mms on Sunday, the total at Colaba has now gone upto 1109 mms. Santa Cruz Airport has totalled 891 mms as on Sunday.But, the much needed regions of the lakes still need a lot more, as the rain in the lakes average around 500 mss in comparison. (The 1109 mms in Colaba has "gone down the drain").The highest yesterday in Mumbai was in the Worli area, with 184 mms. (I have my doubts about the correctness of the 39 cms reported from Dharavi).
On Monday, Mumbai will recieve showers, which should not be too prolonged.Showers will be scattered in parts of the city at different times of the day. Acuumalated rains will total 20-25 mms /day.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, a moderate increase in the rain intensity, to about 35 mms in the day, with thunder.

Performance of Heavy Rainfall Places in India

from 1.1.2010 to 4.7.2010

  1. Cherrapunji - 858 cm (Annual over 1100cm)
  2. Passighat - 251 cm (Annual around 450)
  3. Silchar - 223 cm (Annual around 350)
  4. North Lakhimpur - 208 cm (Annual around 350)
  5. Itanagar - 185 cm (Annual around 350)
  6. Gangtok - 180 cm (Annual over 350)
  7. Agume - 158 cm (Annual over 750)
  8. Shirali - 155 cm (Annual over 400)
  9. Peermade - 149 cm (Annual around 500)
  10. Buxa - 136 cm (Annual around 550)
  11. Mangalore - 135cm (Annual around 400)
  12. Kottigehara - 131 cm (Annual around ??)
  13. Honavar - 123 (Annual over 350)
  14. Valparai - 119 cm (Annual around 400)
  15. Chinnakallar - 117 cm (Annual over ??)
  16. Bhagamandala - 113 cm (Annual over 600)
  17. Gaganbawada - 102 cm (Annual over 600)
  18. Devala - 90 cm (Annual over 400)
  19. Mahabaleshwar - 76 cm (Annual around 600)
  20. Matheran - 50 cm (Annual around 500 cm)
It has poured in Mumbai yesterday (3-Jul-10)...

It has poured in Mumbai yesterday


Dharavi – 39, Colaba – 15, Bagsra – 14, Vanthali – 13, Santacruz – 12

posted by Pradeep
In 48hrs, Heavy showers predicted for Entire W. coast, S. Rajasthan and N-W U.P (including Newdelhi)..
In 48hrs, A high & low level circulation will form over N-W Bay along Orissa coast ...
4pm, Heavy cloud formation over W.central Bay...
4pm, Heavy showers into W & S. Madhyapradesh, E, S-E and N-E Rajasthan..
4pm, Monsoon is marching into N and N-W India...
3pm, Heavy monsoon showers along Kerala and Karnataka coast...
Chennai - Cloudy now 4:13pm, with mild sea breeze and temp at 30.3°C
RT @Monsoonexpress: loved the welcome shower for the monsoon express in rajasthan...entered udaipur with the rain :)
Nagercoil - got a strong shower at around 5am.. aftr that intermittent mild showers continue .