Tuesday, April 01, 2014

El Nino - " likely rain deficit expected in West and North-West during this S-W Monsoon " ...  http://ow.ly/vhGcY


Rain deficit indicated for south peninsular India; East India; northern parts (Jammu and Kashmir) of North-West India
Limited gains in central parts of North-West India (Delhi, Haryana and neighbourhood)
Rain deficit indicated for Central India; North-West India; East India
Rain surplus in south peninsular India; parts of Saurashtra; East of Jammu and Kashmir
Rain deficit indicated for entire Central India; East India (Bihar and parts of adjoining Uttar Pradesh)
Rain surplus in South peninsular India (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rayalaseema); West Rajasthan; Gangetic West Bengal; limited gains for North-West India
Rain deficit indicated for the entire North-Western quarter (North-West and adjoining Central India); South peninsular India; and North-East India
Rain surplus in East India (Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh)
Rain deficit indicated for North-West India and South peninsular India
Rain surplus in Central and East India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab)
Rain deficit indicated for West (Gujarat) and North-West India
Rain surplus in South peninsular India; parts of East India
Taken from http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/
Today, a low-level circulation is seen over Mouth of S Bay, just below 5th parallel ... expected to drift West in next 2/3 days !
This circulation is expected to drift West and pass South of Kanyakumari on 5/6-Apr ... http://ow.ly/i/55Jte .. http://ow.ly/i/55Juv 

Due to this system, GFS model expects scattered rain for S Tamilnadu from 5-Apr.
But WRF model suggests rain from 3-Apr for this zone !

Cloudy skies can be expected for N,N-W,Central Tamilnadu from 3 / 4-Apr !! 
More on this tomorrow !
Low-level circulation persists over N chatisgarh and it's trough seen South upto S Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/55IHh 

In 18hrs, a good low-level circulation is expected over N,N-central Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/55INM 
On 2,3-Apr, a good low-level circulation is expected over Jharkhand and Bengal .. http://ow.ly/i/55IVs 

5:30pm, As expected, showers seen along trough line from N Chatisgarh to W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/55J2p 
5:30pm, Showers seen over S-central,central Karnataka, W Andhra, S-central Odisha and into N Odisha, S Jharkhand.. http://ow.ly/i/55J2p
These showers were forecast perfectly by Yesterday's WRF model !

As long as the trough from N Chatisgarh to S Tamilnadu persists... more rain ahead for S,S-central Karnataka, W,central, N,N-E Andhra.
During next 2 days, more rain ahead for S,central,N,N-E Odisha, S Chatisgarh and along W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu

A weak W.D trough is nearing N,N-W India... now affecting W Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/i/55Hhk 
This W.D is expected to affect N,N-W,N-central India on mid-morning, noon of Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/55Hm4 

Tomorrow, moderate, scattered rain expected over Kashmir, Himachal, N,central Punjab and some zones of Haryana.. http://ow.ly/i/55HrB 
Next, moderate W.D system is expected to reach N,N-W India on 5-Apr !!

#HOT Odisha, Yesterday, 31-Mar-2014, Titlagarh and Bhawanipatna = 42 C
1pm, today's #HOT contenders ...
Hyderabad, Nagpur  = 39 C
Chennai = 38 C
Bangalore = 37 C
Ahmedabad = 36 C
Kolkata = 35 C