Monday, October 31, 2011

The present "95A" is expected to die along Oman coast on 3-Nov... meanwhile a FRESH strong circulation expected to form over S-E Arabian sea
Present circulation South of Kanyakumari will persist till 2-Nov .. so MORE heavy rain ahead for S. Tamilnadu..
8pm, Heavy showers again over S. Tamilnadu ... and more showers coming up for entire Tamilnadu coast tomorrow..
"95A" is a Depression now and located E-N-E of Salalah .. and showers are seen along Oman coast ..
chennai - had 2 to 3 sharp showers from morning till 2pm and NOTHING after that.. and rain activity to start again from early hrs tomorrow.
RT @anupshaji: Heavy rain here ...#Kerala , Kottayam .. 2:11pm

Climate scientists caught cheating again trying to prove the planet is warming

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project is an effort to resolve criticism of the current records of the Earth's surface temperatures by preparing an open database and analysis of these temperatures and temperature trends, to be available online, with all calculations, methods and results also to be freely available online.
Professor Richard Muller, a physicist, and his team at Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) promised to “resolve current criticism of the former temperature analyses, and to prepare an open record that will allow rapid response to further criticism or suggestions”. Because the BEST team was constituted by some sceptics as well, even many sceptics looked favourable at this attempt.

A week ago, Muller claimed to the Wall Street Journal that the case for global warming scepticism was over. Thanks to research from his Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) project, Professor Muller stated confidently, we now know that the planet has warmed by almost one degree centigrade since 1950. What's more, he told the BBC's Today programme, there is no sign that this global warming has slowed down.

But the joy of climate alarmists proved short lived and their smug was wiped out from their faces very fast. A report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation includes a graph of world average temperatures over the past ten years, drawn from the BEST project’s own data published in its website.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

chennai - showers will start again for city towards early morning.
7:30pm, Heavy rain over central, S. coastal Tamilnadu, S. Tip Tamilnadu, very active Gulf Mannar and along Kerala coast.
Showers for central and North coastal Tamilnadu (including chennai) will pickup again from evening .!! A wet day ahead !
Heavy widespread showers forecast for entire Tamilnadu and S. andhra coast from today till 4-Nov... WOW.. Flood Alert .
Very heavy and widespread rain forecast for S. Tip Tamilnadu and S. kerala from today till 4-Nov..
A weak W.D is affecting N-N-W Kashmir... and will persist for another 2 days.
Latest on Arabian sea LOW / Depression "95A" ...
Thailand Met. has marked 3 lows.. 1 over Lakshadweep, 1 over S. of Srilanka and another over S-E Bay ...
Himalayan Glacial melt will lead to a ‘catastrophic’ water crisis.. Myth !!! ??? ..
S-E corner Arabian sea along S. Kerala will pop another circulation ... another good for N-E monsoon along Tamilnadu.

Latest on Arabian sea LOW / Depression "95A"

Position :: 13.8 N and 59.1 E

IMD warning

Time of issue: 1015 hours IST

          Depression over westcentral and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea.

The depression over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea further moved westward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th October 2011 near latitude 13.00N and longitude 60.00E, about 1600 km west of Mangalore (Karnataka), 650 km east of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 750 km southeast of Salalah (Oman) The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs.
As the depression is expected to move further west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development



Latest Satellite IR shot 12:30pm

COLA model suggests that "95A" will continue to travel in W-N-W direction into mouth of Gulf Aden on 1-Nov-2011

Another circulation will pop over S-E corner Arabian sea on 2-Nov... ALL these arabian sea systems are good N-E monsoon, for pulling in Bay moisture towards Tamilnadu coast.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Busted Myth: Himalayan Glacial melt will lead to a ‘catastrophic’ water crisis

 World Wildlife Fund (WWF) makes a remarkable statement:
“The glaciers supply 8.6 million cubic metres (303.6 million cubic feet) every year to Asian rivers, including the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in China, the Ganga in India, the Indus in Pakistan, the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh and Burma's Irrawaddy.”

Remarkable because to-date glaciologists have absolutely no idea how much water is contributed by mountain runoffs to downstream river users. No one really precisely knows how much is snow melt and how much   ice (glacier) melt or how much monsoons contribute as runoffs to rivers like the Ganges.

These are not the only problems with the WWF hysteria. The major arguments against it are discussed below:

1. The operating assumption of global warmist argument is that glaciers are melting because global temperatures are rising which in turn is attributed to increased CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere as an offshoot of  the industrial revolution. So higher the temperature, the more vulnerable glaciers are to melt and once they have completely melted, there would be no more water for our great rivers  and their tributaries like the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Rabi; Chenab; Jhelum; Beas; Sutlej etc.

 But history tells us that the cradle of Indian civilization 4,000 years ago was the Indus Valley watersheds of these same very rivers. Now if the retreat of the glaciers is only a recent phenomenon as global warming activists make them out to be, then where did the water for these rivers come from 4,000 years ago? The only way for that to happen is for the glaciers to have been in constant retreat even before the start of human history!

So what have we now? It’s clear that though glaciers are currently in retreat, industrial revolution and increase in C02 in the atmosphere logically do not seem to have anything to do with it.

If so, the bulk of the water has to come from somewhere and the only source that can provide such large amounts is the monsoons! The other complementary source to monsoons could be of course, seasonal snow melt.

Read more:
In next 24hrs.. Very heavy rain for S.tip Tamilnadu (Kanyakumari district) and S. Kerala expected ..
in 24hrs.. Heavy widespread rain for entire Tamilnadu coast ..
IMD describes Arabian sea LOW "95A" as a Depression in its 2pm advisory... likely to move W-N-W towards Gulf of Aden in next 72hrs
6pm, Good Cloud activity continues over and around S-W Arabian sea system "95A" .. ..
6pm, Heavy T.showers over N,central Tamilnadu, Central, N. Kerala and isolated over S-W coast Maharastra..
S-W Arabian sea LOW has weakened in past 12hrs... now pressure is at 1007mb, not even a LOW at this movement.
1:30pm, Sat shot shows heavy showers for entire Tamilnadu coast and active "95A" over central, S-W Arabian sea..
chennai - get ready to face intermittent sharp showers till monday morning .. and at times it'll be very HEAVY
Going to be a SUPER wet saturday and sunday for S. kerala and entire Tamilnadu coast ..
Latest IMD model suggests that NO NO let up in monsoon showers for entire S. Tamilnadu and Tamilnadu coast till 4-Nov..
Both IMD and COLA models suggest a circulation will emerge along S-E corner Arabian sea on 1-Nov. ..
The S. Gulf Mannar circulation will slowly move W-N-W touching S.Tip Tamilnadu till 1-Nov..
Today the circulation over South of Srilanka has slowly moved N-W into S.Gulf Mannar...
"95A" will become a well marked LOW in another 24 hrs.. and now it's over S-W.central Arabian sea..
chennai - Heavy moisture has started entering along Coastal Tamilnadu... heavy showers forecast for entire coast till Monday
RT @hinduclassified: Rain hits road work at Sabarimala: Incessant rain at Sabarimala has disrupted the concreting...

S.central Arabian sea LOW "95A"

Location :  13 0 N and 63 7 E
Pressure : 1004mb

Satellite IR at 7am

JTWC warning


COLA GFS model suggests that "95A" may become as a Depression and move very slowly in N-N-W direction for next 24hrs.

Friday, October 28, 2011

chennai - just now 10:07pm had a sharp 10min shower over pammal, polichalur zones.
RT @akaasi: Blasting rain in Coimbatore starts at 8.35 pm @weatherofindia
Today a strong Anti-cyclone is over N-W Madhyapradesh and it'll spread into entire central India and persist till 3-Nov.
6pm, Very heavy rain along Gulf mannar, S.Tip Tamilnadu and Srilanka.. ..
6pm, as "95A" slowly moves W-N-W.. the S.Bay circulation has moved over S.Srilanka and Very heavy rain seen over Gulf mannar
6pm, "95A" is now over S.central Arabian sea and getting a whirl to it ..
S. Tamilnadu will have very heavy rainfall on Sunday and Monday... ..
S. Tamilnadu and entire coastal Tamilnadu will pick up strong showers again from morning of 29-Oct..
A strong easterlies is now over S,S-E Bay and it'll reach Tamilnadu coast on 29-Oct.. and continue till Monday..
LOW over S-S-W Arabian sea persists and IMD model suggests a W-N-W move but COLA suggests a N-W move and then North..

Thursday, October 27, 2011

From 29-Oct... very heavy rain forecast for S. Tamilnadu and heavy rain for entire Tamilnadu coast..
Due to another circulation over Gulf Mannar.. heavy widespread showers for entire Tamilnadu coast will start from 29-Oct.
In another 24hrs a circulation will enter into Gulf Mannar again and it'll move West brushing S.Tip of Tamilnadu..
The present circulation over Gulf Mannar will be dead in another 12hrs and another weak circulation popped over S.Bay.
Arabian sea LOW has moved W-N-W and now over S-W-central Arabian sea ... and now models suggest a N-W movement..
chennai - Heavy showers will start again for city around midnight .. now 8:52pm showers has started washing coasts North (25km) of city
7:30am, sat.shot shows the heavy cloud formation over LOW in S. Arabian sea .. ..
7:30am, Sat. shot shows Heavy monsoon rains from S.Andhra coast to S.Tip tamilnadu ..
GFS predicts Two Cyclones in the next two weeks in North Indian basin...
NO let up in heavy rains seen along entire Tamilnadu coast till 31-Oct... WOW .. great start to N-E Monsoon for Tamilnadu chennai
As long as there's an active LOW over Arabian sea... N-E monsoon will be very active ALL along Tamilnadu coast .. chennai
COLA GFS predicts that the present S.Arabian sea low to become a depression and move North into N.Arab sea on 1-Nov..
COLA GFS predicts that the present S.Arabian sea low to become a depression and move North into N.Arab sea on 1-Nov..
After today heavy rain for S.Tamilnadu will start again from Saturday..
In another 24hrs.. South Bay will pop a weak circulation and it'll move W-N-W towards S.Tamilnadu.
In another 24hrs.. South Bay will pop a weak circulation and it'll move W-N-W towards S.Tamilnadu.
S.Arabian sea LOW is moving W-N-W ... COLA model expects it to stay there for 2 days and then move North..
RT @srini21: Sun tv now says that holiday declared to all schools and colleges even in chennai. .. 8am

GFS predicts Two Cyclones in the next two weeks in North Indian basin

The most important South West Monsoon (SWM) has withdrawn with less number of cylones in 2011. However, the North East Monsoon (NEM) has simultaneously set in. A near cyclone has already crossed the coast of Bangladesh/Myanmar last week. Most models predict above normal rains for this year's NEM.

Renowned model - GFS is predicting two cyclone in either seas surrounding Indian peninsula. One each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

The First storm is taking the same route which Cyclone Phet 2010 took. It kisses the Arabian peninsula and travels west crossing Pakistan / Indian (Gujarat) coast. The Pakistan/Indian areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan which have already got more than their normal rains, can rejoice with this un-expected cyclone with the rains it brings. The wind speed are expected to be at 100 km/hr. This system is already in the process of forming, a Low pressure Area (LPA) has already formed. JTWC, NRL Navy & FNMOC have already started to track this system. The sea surface temperature (SST) is also ripe for a cyclone. The system is presently located at 7.6N 64.5E and the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained surface winds are 15 knots.

Arabian Sea Cyclone expected near Pakistan coast on 3rd November

A Very Severe cyclone is expected near Tamil Nadu coast on 10th November.

This is very early to comment at this future cyclone. However the storm looks scary. If the storm forms in the same intensity the GFS model predicts, it will be one of the strongest cyclone to cross Tamil Nadu coast. Winds are expected over 150 km/hr. Hope the Government takes necessary precautions at that time. As of now not much information is available. So lets see how accurate GFS model is.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

a weak W.D possible for N-W kashmir from 28-Oct
Rain for Kerala and coastal Karnataka will go down from 28-Oct.
Widespread monsoon rain to continue all along Tamilnadu coast, S.Andhra coast and S. Extreme Tamilnadu till 31-Oct..
Low over S.Arabian sea will move W-N-W and this will further pull the monsoon moisture towards Tamilnadu coast..
North East air current in full swing over Tamilnadu and S.Andhra coast ... and this is enhanced by formation of Low over S.arabian sea
chennai - is having NO showers now 9:20pm... this will change towards early morning of Diwali day. Another round of Heavy rain forecast.
8pm, Heavy showers now along central coastal Andhra, S.coastal Karnataka and C.coastal Kerala ...
Heavy showers forecast for extreme South Tamilnadu till 31-Oct...
RT @nravs: @weatherofindia heavy rain in Annanagar chennai 8:45am
N-E monsoon is strong today along entire Tamilnadu and S.Andhra coast ..
chennai - Heavy rains from yesterday late evening... till now 10:53am with a small intervals
In the plains of the country, On Tuesday Morning (25th October), Pune dips to 12.6c,( Simla:11.7c, Just for info),  Amritsar: 13.0c,  Nasik :13.4c, Aurangabad: 16.5c, New Delhi: 17.6c and Mumbai S'Cruz 19.3c.

Low in the Arabian Sea at 1006 mb moves slightly North and remains off N.Karnataka coast on Tuesday morning. 
Easterly wave bringing good precipitation to Chennai coast and T.N. 

Monday, October 24, 2011

RT @sultanarun: Rain clouds over tcs site infopark kochi kerala (4:24pm)
chennai - more showers for city will come after 6pm and towards midnight !
#chennai - more showers for city will come after 6pm and towards midnight !
3pm, Flurry of T.storms popping up along entire E.coast of Tamilnadu ... more showers to come ..
Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change has forecast normal to excess rain during North East monsoon ..

Normal to excess N-E monsoon forecast

Global models tend to give a normal to excess rain outlook for the season ahead as the northeast monsoon prepares to unfold over southern peninsular India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) projections continue to suggest that the monsoon in reverse would set in over the southeast peninsular coast by Monday.
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees enhanced probabilities for normal rains during the season.
But the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) has forecast normal to excess rain for the region during November and December.
Piloting rains have fallen over the region during the past couple of days as winds have settled into being easterlies across the Bay of Bengal.
Meanwhile, northeast monsoon has already set in over upstream over South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.
Wind speeds are ratcheted up to 8 to 16 knots (15 to 30 km/h) in the Andaman Sea, an update by the Thailand Meteorological Department said on Sunday.
Among the main weather producing features over the landmass on Sunday were a western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan.
An upper air cyclonic circulation lay anchored over Assam while an upper air cyclonic circulation hung over Lakshadweep. A trough originating from here extended up to south Konkan.
An IMD outlook until Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers would break out at many places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Rains are likely also at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and at one or two places over the remaining parts of peninsular India.
Rain or snow has been forecast at many places over Jammu and Kashmir on Monday and decrease thereafter.
A similar forecast is in place for one or two places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, too.
Taken from  >>

Reports of Good widespread showers for Kanyakumari district (Tamilnadu) for the past 24 hrs

IMD announces the setting of the NEM over T.N. and Kerala. SWM out of full country.

Reports of Good widespread showers for Kanyakumari district (Tamilnadu) for the past 24 hrs
chennai - and entire central and N.Tamilnadu coast will get good heavy rain in another 48hrs. Showers will pickup strength in next 24 hrs.
chennai - and entire central and N.Tamilnadu coast will get good heavy rain in another 48hrs. Showers will pickup strength in next 24 hrs.
Yes, North East Monsoon is here.. but IMD is waiting for some more conditions to announce it officially.
Chennai - city got it's first round of heavy rain at around 2am
Breaking news : north east monsoon has set in over Tamilnadu coast!

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Central coastal Tamilnadu is getting sharp showers now !! After midnight Sharp showers are expected over chennai as well. !!
RT @skapilavastu: Missing 'mazha in kerala' ! "@aaggey: thunder n heavy rain at thrissur town."
4:30pm, Heavy T.showers over Kerala and T.cells are beginning to pop along N, central Tamilnadu coast.. ..
4:30pm, As a precursor to N-E monsoon.. Heavy rain all along Eastern corridor from S.Andhra to S.Tip of India..
chennai - N-E monsoon current has almost over chennai and N. Tamilnadu coast as of now.. Lots of T.cells visible over Bay
chennai - 12:55pm, Heavy showers lashing zones W,S-W of chennai around 60km from city
Some strong showers forecast for S. Tamilnadu and entire coastal Tamilnadu from today till month end !!
A strong W.D is affecting Kashmir from yesterday afternoon.. and it'll continue till 24-Oct..
N-E monsoon current will reach Tamilnadu coast around evening today and it'll pickup strength from tomorrow.. Sharp showers from tomorrow!
Latest analysis at 5:30am shows that the strong monsoon current is very near to Tamilnadu coast..
chennai - Good wind direction from E-N-E now 11:49am... with lots of cloud formations. Monsoon air current is near !!
Now, Sharp showers over Poonamalle, Sriperampudur zones and over West of Maduranthagam
chennai - Lots of cloud formations all over Bay and all over coastal zones... and sharp showers also witnessed over W,S-W outskirts of city

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Reports : At around 4pm, Tiruchy . Tamilnadu got a massive shower

The advent of the NEM has been delayed beyond our expectations this year.

Vagaries had predicted its advance by the 16th. on 1st October, taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM by the 12th etc. The SWM lingered on, and even today, on the 22nd, is still prevailing over Karnataka and T.N.

The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.Another factor are the jet streams. In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.

-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.

-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure sysytems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are prevailing west of Java and Sumatra.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late .

In my last report on the La-Nina, we have discussed that La-Nina is "on the threshhold" of forming..not yet established.There has been little change from then, as atmospheric indicators continue to hover around La Niña thresholds.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) strengthened over the past seven days, with a 30-day SOI value of +10.0 as on 16th October. Sustained SOI values above +8.0 can indicate La Niña events. Factors favour the formation of a La-Nina event within the next 30 days.

Anyway, the latest models show the MJO getting a bit stronger from next week (24th), and moving eastwards in the seas South of Sri Lanka, along the 8N line. Its only after 2nd November that the MJO is shown getting stronger (and more effective) in the entire Bay region.

A UAC today lies over South T.N. and adjoining Sri Lanka. This holds out hope of creating an Easterly wave, which can push a current, a NEM current, onto the T.N. coast initially, and then into the interiors and forcing the SWM "out".

Another system lies over the Lakshadweep Islands and the Kerala coast. IMD indicates this as a UAC. While the Thai Met Dept indicates it as a low at 1006 mb.

chennai - may witness first round of showers around early morning of Sunday !!
chennai - 8:34pm, the N-E current is weak now.. Lots of rain activity around S-W, W, zones of Chennai from afternoon.
Light snow recorded in Gulmarg ..


Sat 22 nd oct hot days for mumbai see clouds in the south, most india cloudless
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chennai - 12:34pm, wind direction upto 3.3 km height is from S-E... lots of cloud activities seen.. Sharp showers possible from S-E
12:33pm, sharp Showers over S-W Chengelpet and rain approaching Mahabalipuram from S-E
A strong easterlies will enter into S-E Bay on 26-Oct and move towards Tamilnadu coast.
A weak circulation can be seen over S-E corner Arabian sea just S-W of Tip of India.. This may become strong and travel west in next 3 days
Showers will start along N,central coastal Tamilnadu from midnight of 23-Oct and gradually become Heavy from 24/25-Oct.
Heavy rain forecast for Kerala, S. Tamilnadu till 26-Oct and beyond..
A moderate W.D has started affecting W. Kashmir.. and it'll continue till 24-Oct.. scattered Heavy rain possible..
Today, A weak N-E monsoon current is touching coastal Tamilnadu...
Saturday (22nd October) Morning minimum temperatures:
Maharashtra: Ahmadnagar: 13.5c, Nasik: 14.5c, Pune: 15.6c,  Mumbai S'Cruz: 21.6c.
New Delhi: 18.4c, Srinagar:5.2c.
Light snow recorded in Gulmarg (3.6 mms) with the minimum at -0.5c today. Pahalgam however has not received snow, and the low today was 1.4c. Leh was at -3.0c on Saturday morning.

chennai - Going by present Wind direction, cloud formations and Bay activity ... a sharp shower possible for city !
Entire Bay near chennai N-E,E and S-E are active with cloud formations now 9:15am
chennai - Temp. now 9:25am is 32.2 C.. Winds upto 3km height is from East .. good sign that N-E monsoon current is near.

Friday, October 21, 2011

A favorable wet MJO phase to start from today till 5-Nov over peninsula... this is right time for N-E monsoon
chennai - for the past 2 hrs.. winds from 0.3km to 0.9km height have become strong and direction is from E-N-E
Recent Tamil Nadu Cyclones and its awesome radar images .. Must read ...
chennai - touched a max of 34.2 C (9:59am).. mild breeze from East. 3:03pm.. conditions getting right for N-E monsoon.
IMD model still predicts a LOW over S-E Bay on 25/26-Oct and moving towards Tamilnadu coast as Depression/Cyclone..
Heavy showers expected for S. Tamilnadu, central and N.coastal Tamilnadu, chennai from 25-Oct..
Monsoon showers will pick up strength from 24-Oct.. along entire Tamilnadu coast, chennai ..
Remnant of "02B" persists over N.Bay and will stay for another 24hrs...
chennai - By sunday, 23-Oct morning .. a weak N-E monsoon current will start over coastal Tamilnadu..
Today, W.D over north Pakistan and neighbourhood now lies over north
Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir
On 20-Oct, highest maximum temperature of 37.6 C was recorded at Vallabh Vidyanagar (Gujarat) in the country.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Thailand met. model also predicts a circulation to pop over S.Bay on 22-Oct.. similar to IMD model..
The story of "02B" N.Bay Depression ...

Bay of Bengal cyclone "02B" alert withdrawn

A cyclone alert in the north-east Bay of Bengal was withdrawn apparently after proximity to land ruled out the intensification of a deep depression off the Myanmar and Bangladesh coast on Wednesday.
An afternoon bulletin of India Meteorological Department (IMD) had briefly flagged the cyclone formation alert after the previous day's well-marked low-pressure area underwent intensification twice over during the few hours in the morning.


The system spun furiously to become a depression, and further onward to a deep depression, putting it just another spin away from being named as a tropical cyclone.
Global cyclone categorisation methods had already tagged it as a ‘numbered cyclone 02B,' which is the penultimate step ahead of named cyclone classification.
The evening bulletin of IMD withdrew formation alert and merely said that the deep depression over north-east Bay moved north-eastwards and lay centred south of Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh).
The system is likely to move further north-eastwards and cross Bangladesh coast close to Cox's Bazar by the evening or the night.
Satellite cloud imagery in the afternoon showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising over parts of Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, north-east and central Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea.
A weather warning valid for Thursday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.


Meanwhile, the disturbance in the east and northeast Bay of Bengal has apparently upset the flow pattern, delaying the onset of the north-east monsoon.
The storm would have to die out, before easterly to north-easterly flow can resume over the Bay of Bengal. This is not expected to happen for at least another couple of days
Both IMD and COLA models suggest a Rainy Diwali for entire Tamilnadu coast ..
A weak N-E monsoon current will start to affect Tamilnadu coast from 23-Oct... and it'll pick strength from 24-Oct.
Remnant of "02B" will produce Showers over East, N-E India, and it will go down from Sunday, 23-Oct..
For next 48 hrs, scattered T.showers possible for Coastal Karnataka, and entire Kerala..
N,central Kerala, Nilgiris are getting some good T.showers now 3pm..
E.coast of Tamilnadu is taking a break to host N-E monsoon in another 3 to 4 days
3pm, "02B" is now over.. still some remnant circulation is causing heavy cloud activity over E, N.Bay..
RT @aditya_ug: @weatherofindia Heavy thunder since 6.30 AM in South Goa. Not raining though. Its been cold since last night.
N-E monsoon over Tamilnadu coast will be strong from 24-Oct, and IMD model still predicts a LOW over S-E.Bay on 24-Oct.
By evening of 22-Oct.. a weak current of N-E monsoon will reach Tamilnadu coast. It'll pickup strength from 23-Oct
From evening of 19-Oct, N-E monsoon current is over S-E Bay corner
"02B" will die over South of N-E states and over N-W Myanmar in another 24 hrs.
7am, "02B" .. it's major cloud formations are over E.Bay and now entering into Myanmar ..
IMD and COLA models suggest - "02B" is over S-E Bangladesh coast...

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

10am, Visible shot of LOW pressure "94B" .. nearing S-E Bangladesh coast ..
chennai - 10:18am, NO cloud formations yet... and today we have medium level winds from North and low level winds from West.
chennai - 10:18am, NO cloud formations yet... and today we have medium level winds from North and low level winds from West.
Here's the latest projected path of Bay LOW "94B" from JTWC ...
Here's the latest projected path of Bay LOW "94B" from JTWC ...
9am, LOW pressure system over N.Bay "94B" is intensifying and nearing S-E Bangladesh coast ..
9am, LOW pressure system over N.Bay "94B" is intensifying and nearing S-E Bangladesh coast ..
RT @aravindh_mohan: @weatherofindia hot sunny day @ hyderabad (9:59am)
RT @1prad: @weatherofindia heavy rain and thunderstorms lashes madurai....roads waterlogged. (18-Oct, 11:49pm)

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

chennai - for the 4th consecutive day.. Rains lashed S,S-W suburbs of city.
IMD models :: On 23-Oct, S. Bay will pop a strong circulation and develop as Depression and hit Tamilnadu coast on Diwali day. "too early!"
COLA and IMD models suggest that N-E monsoon will reach Tamilnadu coast around midnight of 23-Oct.. and will strengthen there after !
Due to "94B".. very heavy rain for S.Bangladesh, and N-E states from tonight till midnight of 21-Oct...
6:30pm, .. ... Heavy T.showers scattered all over Kerala ... and will continue till 22-Oct
COLA predicts "94B" landfall over Bangladesh coast on evening of 19-Oct ... ... "94B" is now moving North towards Bangladesh coast.. will make landfall around evening of 19-Oct
6:30pm, "94B" is getting it's act together.. it may become as a Depression in another 12 hrs..
chennai - 2:29pm, heavy rain just started over Pallavaram zone
chennai - Heavy T.shower now 2pm over Polichalur, pammal zones.
RT @vijaysraman: @weatherofindia its cloudy in TNagar chennai 11:32 wow!! the climate is awesome!! :)
chennai - 12:17pm, showers getting ready over S-E suburbs of city
Chennai - getting ready to host a isolated sharp shower over south or s.w suburbs 10:50am

Monday, October 17, 2011

1. 94B latest position as on 9.30pm Monday at 17N and 89 E, meaning system has deepened to 1004 mb and moved NW. Expecting to deepen more, and move North to NE. Concentration of rainfall to increase over  West Bengal (Kolkata) and Bangladesh after 19th October.

2. A UAC off the Kerala coast persists. Likely to bring rain along Kerala coast next 2 days. Keeping a watch on this system.

3. As SWM retreats, rainfall will slide south of Maharashtra, and thundershowers will be concentrated in S.I. Karnataka (including Bangalore) this week. Expect thundershowers to continue in South Karnataka this week, but weakening in T.N.

4. Amreli and Junagadh regions of Saurashtra were lashed by a severe hailstorm and heavy rainfall on Monday evening. As post Monsoon temperatures soared to 39.3c at Surendranagar, and 39c at Deesa, with Rajkot soaring to 38.5c, and a temporary low  formed due to heat caused thunderstorms on a local convection level. According to Ashokbhai, a few places measured upto 50 mms in 2 hrs of torrential hailstorms.Expecting these storms in Saurashtra till 19th.

8pm, S.central Tamilnadu and Kerala active with T.showers.. meanwhile a depression "94B" taking shape over N.central Bay
Water levels are receding in Pacific islands ..
Japanese model sees cool to wet weather for India ...
Today it's almost certain that the N-E monsoon will reach Tamilnadu coast on 23/24-Oct .. even a circulation expected over S.Bay on 24-Oct
Present anti cyclone over S.Rajasthan will persist there till 23-Oct and beyond.

Japanese model sees cool to wet weather for India

The repeat La Nina conditions in the east equatorial Pacific are growing, and would continue do so in the following months, according to Japanese researchers.
The La Nina may die out during the northern hemisphere summer of 2012, according to researchers at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) attached with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.


RIGC was the earliest global model to come out with a forecast for La Nina as far back as late last year.
In regional forecasts for the next few months, the RIGC said the developing La Nina would bring cool to wet conditions over southern Africa, Australia, Brazil, and India.
It would also help bring down surface temperatures over many parts of the globe except northern Eurasia and eastern US.
Eastern China, Korea and western Japan are likely experience colder weather during this winter, the RIGC said.
Meanwhile, back home, India Meteorological Department (IMD) extended the outlook for a brewing low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal to Tuesday.


Isolated heavy rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Monday and Tuesday.
Extended outlook valid until Friday said that the ‘low' over east-central Bay might intensify further.
A short-term outlook until valid Wednesday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also lash Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and south Madhya Maharashtra.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are expected over east and northeast India, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. Rainfall activity will scale up over the Northeastern States from Wednesday.
This could likely indicate a north-northeasterly movement of a well-marked ‘low' from east-central Bay.


Fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over the Northeastern States, the west coast and extreme south peninsular India during the period until Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending Sunday morning saw fairly widespread rainfall being recorded over interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was scattered over Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra and isolated over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh,
Assam, Orissa, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka, the IMD said.
taken from

On 19-Oct, Due to LOW over Bay, Heavy rain forecast from evening of 18-Oct for N-E states and Bangladesh coast..
Rains over Most of S-W peninsula will vanish from 19-Oct, except over parts of Kerala and Tamilnadu ..
Rains over Most of S-W peninsula will vanish from 19-Oct, except over parts of Kerala and Tamilnadu ..
Rains over Most of S-W peninsula will vanish from 19-Oct, except over parts of Kerala and Tamilnadu ..
In 24hrs, Heavy showers possible for N, central Kerala and over West,S.central Tamilnadu ..
In 24hrs, Heavy showers possible for N, central Kerala and over West,S.central Tamilnadu ..
In 24hrs, Heavy showers possible for N, central Kerala and over West,S.central Tamilnadu ..
COLA model suggests that E.central Bay LOW will move North and reach Bangladesh on 19-Oct..
COLA model suggests that E.central Bay LOW will move North and reach Bangladesh on 19-Oct..
Reliance, Tatas among 150 in race for solar photovoltaic projects ...
Today, E.central Bay circulation is showing signs of intensifying into a Depression ..

Water levels are receding in Pacific islands

Amid growing concerns about drought crises in some small island States of the Pacific, the United Nations today called for comprehensive risk reduction steps to be put in place to protect vulnerable populations living in delicate ecosystems.
“It really is time to assist Tuvalu and Tokelau to increase storage capacities and manage their resources sustainably, including more effective warnings for drier spells,” UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) head of policy John Harding said, referring to two of the region’s island States and territories.
“With climate change predictions pointing to more acute La Niñas in the futures, plans must also include assistance for communities that will be displaced if existing freshwater is not sufficient,” he added, referring to the weather pattern characterized by unusually cool ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can bring abnormal conditions to widely separate areas of the world, from floods to droughts to below- or above-normal temperatures.
On the positive side Mr. Harding noted that the strong correlation between drought and La Niña could be a blessing in disguise, since the phenomenon is increasingly predictable and climate experts can inform decision-makers weeks and even months in advance, allowing for increased storage or stockpiling of emergency supplies in advance of a crisis.
The UN Office of the Coordinator of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA) has identified solar powered desalination units and improved rain catchment and water storage as longer-term mitigation measures against future droughts.
Tuvalu, a collection of far-flung atolls with a population of some 12,000, today began a three-week needs assessment of water, agriculture and health facilities. The most affected areas are the capital city of Funafuti, as well as Nukulaelae and Nanumaga. Australia is covering the fuel costs for the assessment of eight outer islands.
Also affected by the severe drought are Kiribati, with over 112,000 people, the Cook Islands, a self-governing democracy in free association with New Zealand with a population of about 12,000, and Tokelau, a New Zealand territory with about 1,500 inhabitants.
“The critical low levels of freshwater in Tuvalu and Tokelau are just further wake-up calls about the vulnerability of SIDS [small island developing States] to the threats posed by increasing demands on natural resources and development practices that are not sufficiently in tune with these emerging risks,” Mr. Harding said.
“Small island States such as Tuvalu and Tokelau have access to a finite amount of water, mainly from groundwater and rainfall. Managing these resources in the face of increased and diverse demand is a challenge that authorities now face on a daily basis.”
Tuvalu and Tokelau have declared a state of emergency and are receiving emergency assistance from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and Australia, New Zealand and the United States, including freshwater, water tanks, portable desalination units and personnel to operate the additional units and fix existing ones.
Many SIDS used the pulpit offered by the General Assembly’s annual general debate last month to call on the world to pay greater attention to their vulnerability to climate change, warning that the international community was not moving quickly enough to either mitigate the effects of the change or support the poorest countries as they tried to adapt. They stressed that sustainable development would not be possible as rising sea levels threatened to swamp them.

posted by one of our reader Viravanalluran 
chennai - Showers started over S.central of City has moved S-S-W and now 12:45pm has crossed Tambaram and still moving S-S-W
RT @vijaysraman: @weatherofindia No Rain in TNagar, chennai 12:00 pm
RT @vijaysraman: @weatherofindia No Rain in TNagar, chennai 12:00 pm
chennai - heavy rain now 11:58am over Pallavaram zone
chennai - heavy rain now 11:58am over Pallavaram zone
chennai - Sharp showers now 11:52am over Pallavaram zone
chennai - sharp showers again over S.central City now 11:47am
chennai - sharp showers again over S.central City now 11:47am
RT @raaga_suresh: @msriniva I think Kerala, especially Wynad, has got decent amount of rain this time. Trip was good. Will post photos soon.
RT @ranganaathan: Sudden downpour in T-Nagar, this will still further reduce voting @weatherofindia (11:05am)

Sunday, October 16, 2011


Sudden sharp showers and thunder in mumbai. Parting monsoon kick
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone
RT @aravindh_mohan: @weatherofindia its a hot day out here in Bangalore :)
RT @vijaysraman: @weatherofindia but its so hot in tnagar chennai 12:52
RT @nravs: @weatherofindia heavy rain in Annanagar now! Chennai 12:40pm
IMD models suggest that strong N-E monsoon current will reach Tamilnadu coast on 23-Oct..
chennai - 12:26pm having wind from S-E and S-central chennai having good cloud formation.. Sharp showers possible before 3pm.
According to COLA models the N-E monsoon current will reach Tamilnadu coast on 23/24-Oct
From 18-Oct, Showers along S-E peninsula coast will dry up, in preparation for the N-E monsoon current.
T.showers along entire S-W peninsula will be strong for another 24hrs and then it'll be scattered and less intensity..
On 18-Oct, Arabian sea Low circulation will move West and Lakshadweep seas may pop another circulation..
On 18-Oct, present E.Bay circulation may become a Depression and move North into Bay towards Bangladesh coast..
Today, we have 3 circulations, One over S.central Arabian sea, One over central coastal Tamilnadu and one over E.Bay..

Saturday, October 15, 2011

RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia the sky has been set as a perfect stage for some sound n light n rain show! Let the play begin. Mumbai. 5:29pm
chennai - isolated local T.showers will continue over various parts of city and its suburbs for next 2 days
IMD model predicts that by 22-Oct, N-E current will reach Tamilnadu coast...
COLA model suggests that most of T.showers will exit S.Peninsula from 18-Oct...
Showers for entire S-W peninsula will continue till 18/19-Oct... Heavy T.showers forecast for S. Tamilnadu and S. Kerala in next 24 hrs
N-E monsoon current will fill entire S-E Bay on 21-Oct ...
Today, E.Bay has popped a fresh circulation... COLA model expects the circulation to travel N-W and then North..
Today, the circulation is over S.central Tamilnadu and another strong one is over S-E Arabian sea ..

Friday, October 14, 2011

9pm, Take a look at entire S-W peninsula. One will not be able to see such a pic even during good S-W Monsoon season ...
RT @shanpati: 3rd day in a row. Didnt take 15 min for sky to change its colour! Great thunder n rain! Have a pleasent night. Mumbai
As of today's models... the North East monsoon will start over Tamilnadu coast on 22/23-Oct.. and it'll be a weak current to start with.
Present heavy rain along S-W peninsula will reduce from today, but it may prolong till 18-Oct as scattered T.showers..
On 17-Oct, Present S-E Arabian sea circulation will move W-N-W and E.central Bay will have a strong circulation..
COLA model expects the the Tamilnadu coast circulation to persist for another 2 days..
Yesterday's circulation along central Tamilnadu coast still persists, meanwhile S-E Arabian sea has an UAC as well.
RT @1prad: @weatherofindia intense rain with heavy thunderstorms in madurai yesterday(13-Oct) weather.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.50am, Surprise! overcast sky.. but clouds are not intense.. will it rain????
Maximum temperatures were above normal by 2 to ­5 deg C over many parts of northeastern states
Chennai - polichalur.pammal zones just now 10:50am got a small sharp shower
Chennai - isolated sharp shower over s-s-w suburbs of city 10:50am

Thursday, October 13, 2011

RT @aditya_ug: @weatherofindia light rain and thunder in Goa now. Was the same yesterday too. Do rains follow a pattern? (5:31pm)
RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia Khatarnak weather in Mumbai though not like yday! Temp droped atleast 4 degree. Enjoy.
chennai - S-S-W outskirt of city is having a strong Thunder cell now 4:26pm
Coimbatore - On evening of 12-Oct-2011, "Heavens open up; city turns hell" ...
PSLV-C18 puts four satellites in orbit on 12-Oct-2011 ...
Low pressure over West end of S-E Bay "93B" ...
chennai - 1:26pm, S,W,S-W suburbs are having good cloud activity and a sharp shower possible in these zones now
chennai - 1:23pm, having wind from E-N-E almost upto 3km height.
North East monsoon will set in over Tamilnadu coast around 21/22-Oct-2011
A strong circulation may pop over E.Bay on 17-Oct, but it's predicted to move North...
Rain rate will go down over entire S. Peninsula from 15/16-Oct.
As the circulation move West crossing S.Peninsula, heavy rain for Western ghats Kerala and N-W,W Tamilnadu till 15-Oct.
Today a strong circulation can be seen along central Tamilnadu coast and over Lakshadweep ..

Brewing 93 B


93 B

13.10.2011 / 0500 hrs IST


  AT 13 October 2011/ 0500 hrs IST --- NEAR 10.0 Deg N  / 85.5 Deg E


Wednesday, October 12, 2011

RT @dkcbe: @akaasi ஹோப் காலேஜ். சரியான மழை. - Coimbatore (4:32pm)
Fresh T.showers possible for N,central Coastal Tamilnadu, S.coastal Andhra after 4am (morning of 13-Oct)
7:30pm, Good T.showers over W,central. Maharastra, N-W. Karnataka, Goa, N-W,W,S. Tamilnadu and central Kerala..
RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia Loks lke Gods are happy clicking photos frm up above. Unexpectd T showers in Mumbai. Roads r slippery.(7:04pm)
RT @akaasi: @DKCBE intense rain in Eachanari too. Coimbatore gets rain finally. @weatherofindia (5:02pm)
Heavy rain forecast for N.Kerala, N-W. Tamilnadu, S, coastal Karnataka till 15-Oct... till the circulation moves into Arabian sea
Latest IMD model forecasts that N-E monsoon current will emerge into S-E corner Bay on 18-Oct and Onset over Tamilnadu coast is on 21-Oct
By 14-Oct, a circulation will pop over Lakshadweep seas and will become strong on 15-Oct and continue to move W-N-W..
Tomorrow, the Bay circulation will vanish and Land circulation will be formed over W.Tamilnadu, Kerala and S.Karnataka.
Today, the S.central Bay circulation persists ...
chennai - 3:30pm, Major cloud formations over City has cleared up. May return after 5pm !
chennai - 3:29pm, Heavy cloud formation seen over S-S-W of Chennai and NO great rain reported from there yet!!
chennai - Having high humidity and very good Cloud formations now 1:44pm... wind from N-E.. City getting ready to host a T.shower


Final monsoon leg over lonavala
Indo-French Weather Satellite-the 1000kg "Megha Tropique", sucessfully put in Orbit 20 minutes ago from Sri HariKota.--Satellite boon for Tropical Countries.

12.10.2011 / 0000 Z cloud imagery

12.10.2011:: 0000 Z upper wind
The upper wind easterlies becoming westerlies and penetrating deep into 70 DEG E longitude. This induces Thundry weather system beneath.  From cloud imagery one can notice cloud formation in Arabian sea guided by these upper winds. These are small vortex thunder cloud clusters. AT lower levels this will give rainfall from NW to SE or NORTH to South direction
chennai - present 6:31am, wind is from West, this may not support the cloud formation for now !
chennai - present dead T.cell over S-W and N-W of city may invoke a Thunder shower over the city itself in another 1 or 2 hrs
chennai - steady drizzles continuing over S-W suburbs for the past 30 min (6:29am)
chennai - Heavy rain can be seen over North of city at around 60km ... 6am
chennai - Heavy rain can be seen over North of city at around 60km ... 6am
5am, Huge thunder cloud activity can be seen N,N-W of Chennai ... now 6:18am it's almost dead..

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

5:30pm, As expected entire S.Peninsula, S-W,West. Bay and even Maharastra is under heavy T.shower activity...
Massive thunder storms now 3:45pm brewing over N-W of Chennai at around 100km
chennai - As expected, Wind and cloud movement has changed to North East from yesterday (10-Oct)
chennai - After South chennai got a masive T.shower now 3:27pm, most of city is cloudy now
Heavy rain for Kerala western ghats to continue till 16-Oct...
In next 24hrs, heavy t.showers forecast for entire S. peninsula ... from N.karnataka to S. Tamilnadu.
The present circulation is expected to move West and cross into Tamilnadu on 14-Oct.. and then pop over Arabian sea... long term forecast
Today, a strong low level circulation can be seen over S.central Bay ... and it's expected to move West..
RT @_hakr: I wished for a rain, He blessed the whole land with a rain... Thy Mercy... cherthala kerala (10:59am)
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 12.50pm, Hot days... Sunny, hot and humid - 38C yesterday.

Invitation to International Climate Change Conference


   9.30 am to 10 am         :           Registration

10 am to 11.30 am        :           Session 1: Climate science

Chair: Dr. R. A. Mashelkar,* former DG, CSIR
Inauguration: Dr. Welkar,* VC, University of Mumbai
Prof. R. R. Kelkar: India's Climate Change Concerns and the Need for Better Climate Models
Dr. Madhav Khandekar: Indian Monsoon Variability in the context of Global Warming Debate

11.30 am to 11.45 am :              Tea

11.45 am to 1.15 pm    :             Session 2: Changing sea level

                                                  Prof. Nils-Axel Morner: Sea Level Changes in the Indian Ocean: 
                                                  Observational facts
                                                  Dr. Nils Finn Munch-Petersen: Marketing atoll dynamics as sea rise in 
                                                  the Maldives
                                                  Dr. Yuanzhi Zhang: Impact of sea level change on coastal erosion and 
                                                  flooding: A case in Hong Kong
                                                  Dr. A.S. Gaur: (Changes in sea level in west coast of India)

1.15 pm to 2 pm           :             Lunch

2 pm to 3.30 pm           :             Session 3: Monsoon and its impact

                                                    Dr. Ramesh H. Kriplani: Summer Monsoon Variability over India: 
                                                    Coupled Climate Model Simulations and Projections
                                                    Dr Willie Soon: A closer look into the computer-projections of Indian 
                                                    Monsoonal Rainfalls in the 21st
                                                    Dr. Rajesh Agnihotri: Total Solar Irradiance and SW Indian monsoon
                                                    Prof. B. K. Bala: Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

3.45 pm to 4 pm           :               Tea

4 pm to 5.30 pm           :               Session 4: Geological evidence

                                                    Prof. Arun Deep Ahluwalia: Climate Change or Global Warming: 
                                                    Man Made or Natural or Both?
                                                    Prof. Rajinder K. Ganjoo: Glacial Response to Environmental 
                                                    Changes in Nubra Valley (Ladakh)
                                                    Dr. Rohinton Avasia: Sea level changes through geological time
                                                    Dr Kurush F. Dalal (Sea level change and archaeological evidence)

5. 30 pm to 7 pm          :               Conclusion: Policy implications

                                                     Chairman: Mr. Suresh Prabhu*
                                                     Dr. Bjarne Lembke: Climate Change and Health
                                                     Mr. Chetan Pandit: (Managing water)
                                                     Ms Pooja Kotiyal: Evolution of the Energy-Environment Policies in 
                                                    the context of NAPCC in India
                                                     Mr Barun Mitra: Decarbonisation of the Economy