Friday, November 12, 2010

A lot was expected from Cyclone Jal for a good revival, or should I say commencemnt, of the NEM. 
But, short of hitting the East coast of India, Jal started its anomalous behaviour.
Short of striking the east coast, on the 4th. of November, it met with wind shear resistance, and started weakening, and struck the coast as a DD on the 7th.
A dryish DD ! The rain precipitation was nothing much, and lasted just for barely 12 hrs. Within 10 hrs of landfall, we were searching for Jal !
On re emerging in the Arabian Sea, on the 9th, its performance was again "unworthy" of the season. It did justice with fairly good rains along the west coast ! Karwar with 207 mms in 24 hrs was the highest. And several places in Goa and Konkan had 80- 150 mms.
Then it entered Saurashtra, where actually the people are looking to dry weather, lest their winter crops get damaged. But, on the 11th, it rained 60-70 mms in the desert region of Kutch and Jaisalmer.Central India too received heavy thundershowers.
Not to mention Mumbai, which has been receiving frequent rains from Diwali day. Today, 12th.Friday, there was drizzling in Mumbai.

And, the clouding, spreading north, has practically thrown the winter in the region for a toss.High day and night temperatures, up to +10c above normal are recorded in the NW.
No W.D. seen for NW soon.

And, the south, T.N. and interior Karnataka, are still awaiting a proper commencement of the NEM. All hopes on another system from the Bay.
Nothing in sight as on today, and no system formation seen till Monday, at least. I only hope the expectations of a good system doesnt fizzle out.
I mention this, as I see an Easterly wave. a mild one, coming towards the T.N. coast by Monday (15th.) . This would only mean a longer wait for a regular system.


RT @pauldatta: Took this picture in and the rain
RT @ecoseed: Grass found as better biofuel crop than corn
Jal and remnant off spring upsets the current  weather all over central and NW India..
Major rise in night temperatures last 2 nights in Mah. central India and NW India.All due to moisture incursion all over this region from remnant of Jal and UAC.Lows in Jeur in Madhya Mah. +10c above normal, and Aurangabad +9c.above. Mostly all between +3c - +6c.
Today, Rajasthan cities also +10c above normal, and Delhi +5c at 17c ! All NW +5c - +8c above !

Rainfall heavy with thunder in Central India and Vidharbha on Thursday. 60 mms in Indore, 41mms in Bhopal. 48 mms in Chandrapur and 40 mms in Nagpur ! These are amongst the heaviest on Thursday.
On Thursday again, Heavy downpours in Saurashtra/Kutch. Nakhtrana-70 mms, Bhuj-60 mms, Kalyanpur-50 mms Ranawav-40 mms.

Heavy widespread showers for entire Tamilnadu from 16-Nov till 20-Nov is forecast.
12pm, still some showers linger over W. Gujarat due to the remnant of Jal ..

LESS CONFIDENCE over upcoming cyclone / depression

A well-marked low-pressure area, remnant of erstwhile cyclone ‘Jal', has been holding on gamely to its perch over North-East Arabian Sea off Saurashtra and Kachchh.
The southerly-to-southeasterly winds associated with the system have helped sustain widespread to fairly widespread rain over the western parts of the country.

Moisture incursion has been taking place over Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh from the Arabian Sea, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
A weather update by IMD for the 24 hours ending Thursday said that widespread rainfall occurred over South Peninsular India.
Widespread rainfall was also reported from Andaman and Nicobar Islands from a persisting cyclonic circulation in the region, while it was scattered over Gujarat and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Convective clouds
Insat cloud imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Saurashtra, Kachchh, North-East and South-East Arabian Sea, South-East Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep on Friday.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast for Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday and Saturday.
Meanwhile, an extended weather outlook valid until Tuesday by the IMD said that the persisting upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea would get a move to the west-northwest.
Under the influence of the system, a low-pressure area is likely to form over central parts of South Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood.
A few international models still maintain the outlook for the ‘low' to intensify as it tracks west-northwest from the South Bay and reach minimal cyclonic strength.

Leading them is the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services, but a notable dissenter is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The dynamic prediction model of the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau, too, seems to have lately scaled down its expectation of storm intensity.
An IMD weather outlook valid until Sunday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu.
It would be scattered over Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also take place over Gujarat, Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh on Friday and Saturday before relenting. Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh during this period.
Extended outlook until Tuesday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over South Peninsular India with isolated heavy falls over the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Latest COLA-GFS also predicts a LOW system crossing central Tamilnadu coast on 17-Nov..
Chennai - very less showers predicted for entire Tamilnadu coast from today till evening of 15-Nov-2010
Mystery over upcoming cyclone / depression still remains, latest IMD-GFS predicts a low pressure system to cross central Tamilnadu on 17-Nov
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, baroda 10.45am, partly cloudy sky with slight drizzle in the morning.