Hotter June in city than in the past two years

July is usually a month of pleasant weather, with normal day temperature not exceeding 35. 2 degrees Celsius. However, on Monday, the Nungambakkam observatory recorded 38 degrees C, nearly three degrees above normal. Although weather experts attribute it to the delayed progression of the southwest monsoon, the last two months in the city have been perceived as unusually hot.

Many Chennaiites felt they had experienced a delayed Khatri' (the hottest period of the year, in May) in June, with the days seemingly hotter than the normal average of 36.9 degrees C for the month. And statistics proved them right - day temperature exceeded 40 degrees C on not less than ten days in June this year.

"The average day temperature in June is around 37 degrees C, but it was hotter this year compared to the past three years, " said Y E A Raj, deputy director general, meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai. "We expected a cooler July, but due to the weak monsoon we are receiving north-westerly winds, resulting in warmer temperatures. Coupled with the lack of clouds, the day temperatures have really shot up," added Raj. Although rains are not forecast for Tamil Nadu during the southwest monsoon, many districts in the state receive rain from June till September, which brings down day temperatures, according to him.

Data made available by the Met department reveals that between 2001 and 2008, mercury touched 40 degrees C and beyond on 10 days in 2003 and 11 days in 2005. However, temperature remained well below the 40-degrees mark in 2002, 2004 and 2006. In 2005, 40 degrees C was recorded only on five days while in 2007, only one day was as hot and in 2008 there were two days when temperature touched 40 degrees C.

"This June, the sea breeze set in after 2pm on most days, and did not set in at all for a few days due to the westerlies.When sea breeze is delayed, the heat experienced is more acute," said Raj. "Traditionally, the temperature reduces progressively over the month of the July, and if the southwest monsoon continues to hold, we can look forward to pleasant days," he added.

The normal weather for July is 35. 2 degrees C, but in the week gone by the lowest recorded was 34.5 on July 5.

Days in June 2009 when maximum temperature crossed 40 degree Celsius in Nungambakkam

June 2 : 40. 6

June 3: 40.3

June 4: 40.8

June 5: 40.1

June9 : 40.1

June 10: 40.2

June15: 40.1

June 23: 40.3

June 24: 40.1

June25 : 40.6



The month showed a 2. 3 degree departure from normal. The normal temperature is 36. 9 degree Celsius, based data from 1969 to 2008.

Day temperatures in July in Nungambakkam

July 6 : 38

July 5 : 34. 5

July 4: 36. 4

July 3 : 36. 6

July 2 : 37. 1

July 1 : 38. 8

The normal temperature during July is 35. 2 degree Celsius.

Days in the last nine years when day temperature exceeded 40 degree C in June in Nungambakkam:

2008 : 2

2007: 1

2006: 0

2005:11

2004 :0

2003: 10

2002: 0

2001 :5

Lightning kills 18, including six kids

AT least 18 people including six children were killed after they were struck by lightning in the east Indian state of Bihar, officials say.
Around 30 people were struck overnight by bolts of lightning across Bihar, and those that were injured were receiving treatment in hospital, State Disaster Management Minister Devesh Chand Thakur said today.
"The children were playing in the pre-monsoon showers when lightning struck them,'' Mr Thakur said from the state capital Patna.
Torrential rains accompanied by strong winds uprooted trees, damaged houses and brought down power cables across the impoverished state last night, he said.

Chennai continues to witness weather of May in mid-June

The city has been witnessing maximum temperatures that are higher by around three to four degrees than the normal for the past one week. On an average, the maximum temperature has been in the range of around 34-36 degrees which resembles the temperature usually recorded in the second half of May.

According to IMD officials, this is happening due to the delay in arrival of monsoon. Normally, the maximum temperature in mid-June ranges between 30 to 32 degrees.

"Weather changes like decline in day and night temperatures, reduction in humidity and increase in moisture that normally take place due to the arrival of monsoon, are not visible right now," said P C S Rao, director (Weather Central), India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune.

"Usually, during the last fortnight of May, a reduction in temperature is witnessed which continues till the first week of June when the monsoon arrives. After that there is further decrease in temperature," Rao said, adding that this year such reduction took place towards the end of May, but after that subsequent reduction in temperature has not taken place.

According to IMD figures, on Tuesday the city witnessed 36.5 degrees maximum temperature, which was higher by 5 degrees than normal temperature. Before that the city has been witnessing temperature between 34 to 36 degrees which were higher by 3 to 4 degrees than normal.

When asked about any change in the progress of monsoon, A B Mazumdar, deputy director general, meteorology, IMD, added that conditions are not favourable for the arrival of monsoon during the next 24 hours. Till then, hot weather conditions are likely to prevail.

IMD officials have pointed out that many areas in Vidarbha and Marthawada region have been witnessing temperatures around 40 degrees or above. "In some neighbouring states, conditions are even hotter. Parts of Andra Pradesh, Orrisa, Jharkhand and near by areas are witnessing heat wave conditions," the IMD officials said.

Meanwhile, monsoon which last registered a progress on June 7, has halted in Ratnagiri since then. It continued to halt there even on Thursday. It may be noted that south-west monsoon had set in over Andaman sea around its normal date on May 20

Key to monsoon revival now lies in Bay of Bengal

June 14 The monsoon has been stuck for exactly a week after it revived from the shock administered by Cyclone Aila, and is expected to stay as such for another three to four days.

This would delay its advance into major farming regions in the east, southeast and peninsular India, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
TROUGH OF LOW

The only redeeming feature as on date was the presence of a trough of low pressure over north Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees some activity brewing here within the next five days.

The IMD said that increase in rainfall is likely along the west coast and over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from Wednesday apparently as a prelude to the churn in the Bay.

To the peninsular west, a persisting offshore trough linking south Karnataka coast to Kerala coast would continue to cause fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in its update that rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka also.
MORE RAINS

Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala and Lakshadweep, and at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Tamil Nadu for two more days.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka and Telangana.

Delay in monsoon over Bihar, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining peninsular India has allowed heat wave conditions to develop.

On Saturday, the highest maximum temperature of 44.6 deg Celsius was recorded at Ganganagar. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed at isolated places in Vidarbha.

Meanwhile, Dr Karumuri Ashok, Senior Research Scientist at the Asia-Pacific Climate Centre, Busan, South Korea, has clarified that the forecast for a weak El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over the next months was ‘experimental’ in nature.
MODEL DIFFERENCE

The APCC predictions for El Nino and IOD are only in research mode, produced once a season for the next six-months with collaboration from several research centres to arrive at a consensual coupled model prediction.

The APCC’s ‘operational’ prediction (based on mathematical models of atmospheric motions alone) is different from this ‘coupled’ (ocean-atmosphere) prediction, Dr Ashok informed Business Line.

“As per our operational prediction, rainfall signals for India for June-July-August are positive to near normal everywhere, unlike the coupled prediction,” he said.

The equatorial Pacific would still need to be constantly watched before any final word could be said about the development of any major weather-altering event.
‘NEUTRAL’, FOR NOW

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said in its June-8 update said that ‘neutral’ conditions were present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

But current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicated that conditions were favourable for a transition to El Nino conditions during June-August.

Since the beginning of May 2009, positive sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been observed across the equatorial Pacific.

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest positive anomalies evident in the eastern and western Pacific, it said.

Original:: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/06/15/stories/2009061550490300.htm

Another Monsoon lull period from today

The monsoon has once again run into a brief lull after winds erred in direction and speed, but numerical weather prediction models indicated that the rains would revive from Wednesday.

The offshore trough from south Konkan-Goa persisted but the westerly to southwesterlies tended to become westerly to northwesterlies on approach except over the southern tip of the peninsula.
STRAYING WINDS

A prevailing western disturbance and its band of northwesterlies seemed to have entrenched itself down to central India and beyond, forcing the southwesterlies to stray.

But this would trigger isolated rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated dust storm or thunderstorm has been forecast over Rajasthan.

Convective clouds were seen over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea, besides over north Andaman Sea and north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal across the peninsula, the IMD update said.

The Chennai Met Centre said that the monsoon was vigorous over north interior Karnataka and active over Kerala during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

Forecast for the next two days, however, indicated the possibility of thundershowers at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka, and at a few places over interior Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh.

A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy rain is likely over Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
WAIT FOR MUMBAI

The northern limit of monsoon remained unchanged from Sunday’s alignment along Ratnagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.

Latest forecast from the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University suggests that the monsoon may not enter Mumbai until sometime after the June-10 normal.

The erratic rains are now expected to enter the metropolis around June 13 only, although occasional pre-monsoon showers are likely to occur during the run-up to this.

In fact, the IMD has said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Konkan and Goa, while being isolated over south Madhya Maharashtra over the next few days.
BAY ACTIVITY

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has assessed that the Bay of Bengal may be readying itself to host a typical monsoon ‘low’ from June 15 onwards.

The system might show up to northwest of Andaman and Nicobar Islands and might get embedded in a larger trough of low-pressure area during the next two to three days.

This is more or less corroborated by precipitation forecasts made by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) showing gains for the west coast and the rest of the peninsula from June 16 to 24.

Convection is shown to spread from southeast to northeast Arabian Sea during this phase when rains would have covered the entire west coast. The Bay ‘low’ might spearhead rains into the peninsulas and set up an interaction with a counterpart to the west.

Now 2 LOW systems on both sides...

After yesterday's "90B" over the central Bay, now we are joined with another LOW system over the South-east Arabian sea "91A".
Here's the latest satellite pic.

Latest GFS models did not predict any formation of cyclone or even a depression with the present 2 systems "91A" and "90B".

Chennai:
We'll experience wind gusts thru the day from South-west.
Temperature will be around 39 deg.
And at around 5 pm we will see some thunder cells over the West-south-west and 60% chance we might get a shower or two.
This is the weather forecast for Chennai for next 2 days.

Low pressure "90B"

Bay is active again after 15 days from Cyclone Aila.
Now it's a Low pressure system "90B" and this is also a potential Cyclone system, because it's got good monsoon air current and having a huge cloud mass.
Here's the latest satellite pic... which shows the cloud mass and some signs of circulation.
This system will surely revive the Arabian wing of the south west monsoon.

LOW in north Bay of Bengal

There's a possibility of a LOW pressure formation over the Northern extreme of Bay of Bengal... these kind of formations are typical during the South-west monsoon season.
These lows will trigger more monsoon rains for Northern Bay region and to the western ghats region.
Latest GFS also predicts a LOW to the extreme north of Bay.

And latest satellite shot also shows some sign of it.

Monsoon:
Monsoon will revive over the western coast in next 2 or 3 days along with the LOW formation over the northern Bay.
Chennai:
Chennai was so hot for the past 2 weeks from 20-May-09.
City is experiencing temperature of around and over 40 deg Celsius for the past 13 days. Today we had signs of a GOOD thunder cell formation and then fading away.
We'll have a share of late evening thunder shower in next 2 or 3 days.
Today also the temperature was near 40 deg Celsius.

IMD watch for fresh Bay ‘low’ even as lull persists

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the vigil for what likely is a brewing ‘low’ in North Bay of Bengal later this week (June 4, Thursday).

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is already on record with its projection of a churn in North Bay but had little found little support from peer models.

WESTERLY TRIGGER

The ECMWF says that the system would be triggered as an itinerant westerly trough dips into the Head Bay.

The causative western disturbance moved into Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday with a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The entourage is predicted to get a move to east India during the course of the week.

The ECMWF sees the system locking itself to a slot over the Head Bay and staying there for a while.

Proximity to land grants it hardly any elbowroom to move around the waters to intensify.

But the system may beat odds to intensify before making a landfall, yet again, over West Bengal.

This is the track chosen by predecessor Cyclone Aila as it crossed land earlier last week.

LIKELY STORM

Given that there is no much room for lateral movement, what could likely fuel the growth of the Bay system is its staying power over waters (June 4 to a likely landfall date of June 9 according to ECMWF) and the low vertical wind shear from a still poorly developed monsoon.

Early monsoon and end monsoon stages offer themselves as windows of opportunities for cyclone formation thanks to low vertical wind shear.

High wind shear during peak monsoon lops off towering heads of building storms and prevents cyclogenesis.

ECMWF projections also indicate the monsoon getting a leg-up over the southeast coast as also parts of east-central India (parts of interior Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra) as the Bay system gets anchored.

The IMD update on Sunday also noted that there has been no progress in the monsoon from its May-25 bearing.

Numerical models suggest that further advance is not likely during next three to four days.

WEST COAST RAINS


The activity is likely to remain subdued over south peninsula except west coast where rainfall activity is likely to increase during the next two days.

A persistent trough/wind discontinuity along the ‘trunk’ of the mainland amplified the poorly endowed monsoon features obtaining on Sunday.

The trough ran down from Jharkhand to north coastal Andhra Pradesh through Chhattisgarh headed by cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand.

It featured the confluence of opposing wind streams and resultant unstable weather.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala and Lakshadweep and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

A warning spoke about the possibility of isolated heavy rain over Kerala and Lakshadweep.

June likely to be less hot for Chennai

Original from:: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/June-likely-to-be-less-hot/articleshow/4598694.cms
posted on 31-May-09

CHENNAI: The hot, stuffy weather prevailing over the past few days may not last long. "It is still summer, but in June the mercury is unlikely to
cross 40 degrees Celsius on consecutive days as it did in May, or touch 42 degrees C," said Y E A Raj, deputy director general, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC). Day temperatures may not go beyond 38 or 39 degree C. "Whether it will lead to better comfort level depends on the revival of the southwest monsoon, which has been dormant after setting in early," he added.

The formation of heavy clouds over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday is an encouraging sign and there are indications that the southwest monsoon may revive in the coming few days. "Already many districts received rainfall on Saturday and the weather is likely to improve," said Raj. Chennai, too, fared better, with the mercury recording 39 degrees C on Friday and Saturday, with the forecast for Sunday being 39 degrees C.

In the past decade, barring 1994 and 2004, day temperatures in May crossed 41 degree C. The highest ever - 45 degree C - was recorded on May 31, 1910 and in 2003. However, with the Met department forecasting 39 degree C for Sunday, it could mark the the beginning of better weather.

monsoon seen stagnant for next 5 days

India's annual monsoon rains are expected to remain stagnant for up to five days, the weather department said on its website on Friday afternoon.

The department revised its earlier forecast on Friday morning that the monsoon was not likely to advance in coming 3-4 days. "Numerical weather prediction models indicate that further advance of monsoon is not likely during next 4-5 days," the weather department said in an updated note on its website.

Monsoon rains, which hit the country's mainland on Saturday ahead of normal schedule of June 1, had lost pace after May 25 and there has been no advancement for the previous three days.

India's June-September monsoon rains are a major influence on the farm-dependent economy as two-thirds of Indians dependant on agriculture and related businesses for a living.

Mild Chennai summer till 20-May-09

As the khatri veyyil' ends, Chennaiites can heave a sigh of relief. May, traditionally the hottest month, has been comparatively pleasant.

Reason? The sea breeze blew in early enough to contain the heat radiation. Unlike in the previous two years, the mercury touched 40 degrees Celsius only on four days this year. In 2007, it climbed over 40 C on 12 days, and last year it touched 40 and above on 16 days. The pleasanter weather

has come in a year when summer showers have been deficient. According to the Met department, Nungambakkam recorded 17 mm of rain between March and May while Meenambakkam was deficient by 42 mm, as against the normal 79 mm.

"The timely onset of the sea breeze has kept the temperature under control, since clear skies and sea breeze control heat radiation," said Y E A Raj, deputy director-general of meteorology, Regional Meteorological

Centre (RMC). "When the sea breeze sets in, the day temperature will drop by two or three degrees in one hour, and since they blow for 12 hours a day in May, the weather will be pleasanter," he added. According to him, strong westerly winds will impede the onset of sea breeze, and make the temperature warmer. Barring on May 13, 14, 23, and 25, the arrival of sea breeze has been close to normal. In May 1910 and in May 2003, Chennai recorded 45 degrees Celsius.

According to RMC director S R Ramanan, "A low pressure blocked a good part of the solar radiation and aided in maintaining comfortable levels this May."

A Ramachandran, director, Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, Anna University, pointed to a 0.2 degree rise in the mean value of day temperatures during the khatri over the last two decades. According to him, man-made causes are likely to impact radiation levels in future

Cyclone Aila and Bangladesh

Millions of people have been left homeless after large tidal waves struck the two countries

Cyclone Aila is causing widespread damage along the coast. Rising flood waters there are forcing thousands of residents from their homes.

Floods ravaged coastal parts of Bangladesh Monday the 25th, leaving thousands of families homeless.

Those fortunate enough to escape the rising flood waters walked to temporary shelters, while others were left stranded.

[Mosheleuddin, Villager]:
"The water from the sea entered our village and flooded our homes. All our houses were flooded. No dry place remains."

The storm surge from Aila washed away dozens of shrimp farms and flooded rice fields.

With Aila tracking towards the coast the Bangladesh Weather Bureau has kept storm warning in place for the ports at Chittagong, Mongla and Cox's Bazar.

Almost 40 have perished in Bangladesh.

This poor south Asian country is battered by storms every year.

A cyclone in November 2007 ravaged a large part of the country's coast, killing nearly 3,500 people and displacing around two million.

Cyclone Aila and Kolkata

The cyclonic storm Aila hit the Indian city of Calcutta and nearby areas, killing more than 30 people, before weakening and heading north.

Watch this video ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMF3UXKCYsg

and

India monsoon loses pace

India's annual monsoon rains, which hit the country's mainland on Saturday, has lost pace and there has been no advancement for the last two days, the weather deparment said on its website on Wednesday.

Till May 25, the southwest monsoon advanced over entire Kerala and Tamil Nadu, parts of coastal Karnataka, entire northeastern states, and most parts of West Bengal, the Indian Meteorological Department said.

"There is no further advance of monsoon till today, i.e. 27th May 2009," the department said.

Monsoon reached the south-western state of Kerala on May 23, ahead of the scheduled June 1.

Here's the northern limit of monsoon..

The northern limit of monsoon as on 25^th May 2009, passed through Lat. 13.0ºN/Long 60.0ºE, Lat. 13.0ºN/Long 70.0ºE, Mangalore, Dharmapuri, Chennai, Lat. 15.0ºN/Long 83.0ºE, Lat. 17.0ºN/Long 85.0ºE, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.

Kolkata getting ready for cyclone "Aila"

Kolkata getting ready to face cyclone "Aila".
Here's the latest satellite pic

and JTWC warning text and projected path.

************************************
250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 88.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (AILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE CONSOLIDATED AROUND A MORE
SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A
242023Z 85H TRMM PASS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. TC 02B IS
BEING STEERED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BY A MID-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 KNOTS ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA
BEFORE TAU 12. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20
FEET.
************************************
South west monsoon is moving into area upto northern Kerala.
Nagercoil - Is very windy with sprinkles of rain over night. Now 7:40am, it's very windy with high cloud cover.
Latest GFS predicts more rain for southern Kerala.

cyclone "02B" gaining strength, Monsoon will pick up.!

Cyclone "02B" is gaining strength and moving in a north-east direction as expected.
Now it has gathered a huge cloud mass.
Here's the latest satellite pic and JTWC warning.


JTWC warning text:
************************************
240300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP AND EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE SOUTH AND FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A VERY BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232119Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE IS DRIFTING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF
28 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM, WHICH DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
SURGE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL, IS DIRECTLY UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST
OVER NORTHWESTERN MYANMAR. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE
AND TRACK NORTHWARD THEN MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 42 ALONG THE INDIA-
BANGLADESH BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 230521Z MAY 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 230530). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
17 FEET.
************************************
meanwhile the south-west monsoon over the southern tip will gain strength in another 24 hrs.

Breaking News: South west monsoon is here.

At last the south west monsoon is over southern tip of Indian mainland.
One day after the earlier predicted date of 21-May-09, the monsoon air current picked up strength at around midnight of 22-May-09.
Rain picked up at around 1 AM of 23-May-09.
Take a look at the latest (23-May-09, 6:30 am)

Thanks to the potential circulation "98B" over the central bay and it's north ward movement, the southern tip of mainland has got the Monsoon air current.
Latest GFS also suggests a Deep low over the central bay and the southern tip is in for more heavy rains.

Now it's "96B"

95B has died down over south Bay itself... now it's "96B" perfect at the central Bay.

This circulation is not predicted to become big... this will move in a north direction.

Here is the latest satellite pic

and the latest MM5 forecast model also suggests a circulation.

If this system develops into a depression and moves in a Northerly direction then the Monsoon will set in over the Southern Mainland.

Monsoon - will it land on 20-May-09

IMD is predicting that monsoon for mainland will arrive on 26-May-09.

We have predicted the date as 20/21-may-09. Here's a GFS that still supports our prediction.

It's another 4 days for that!... we'll keep it updated.

Meanwhile the Andaman wing of monsoon is just 24 hrs away.

Take a look at the latest water vapor shot, shows a lot of activity over the 5th parallel South of Bay.