Thursday, November 09, 2017

Today, the big elongated circulation and LPA is seen over S-central Bay, the circulation's NW quadrant can be seen along N coast tamilnadu.
According to models, the LPA and its circulation is expected to "drift" West during next 72hrs and come close to NE Srilanka on Sunday.

Today, most of Tamilnadu had a dry day... but this can get disturbed on Friday, especially over N,central coast.
"Some rain ahead"
By Saturday into Monday, present circulation can give showers along S coast Andhra, Chennai , N,central coast Tamilnadu.

Some detail about the expected "Cyclone over central Bay"

At present the potential energy for a Cyclone to build is high over central,S-central Bay, that's why models are forecasting a Cyclone !

"IF" a cyclone pops out from the present circulation then "can" take a North movement due to upper-level wind steer and 30W's NW movement.

"At present Wind shear above central Bay is high" .. a Cyclone will get weak or get dismantled if it moves into that zone.

"Present central,N Bay is having a good Sea surface temperature. Above normal at this of year".. which will support the growth of a Cyclone.

First let the circulation become a Cyclone / Depression as suggested by GFS, ECMWF.
Till then "rain ahead" for N,central coast Tamilnadu !

November 09, 2017 at 01:30PM