Tuesday, December 03, 2013

92B update

5:30pm, Wind analysis show that present location of circulation is around N-E Srilanka coast, NO intensification .. http://ow.ly/i/3UoYG 
Wind analysis also show above 20kt Wind concentration along N,central Tamilnadu coast... this will push in more showers along coast in 15hrs
As per the latest analysis by NRLMRY of 92B has shown "Signs of Weakening" and located at "6.1N, 82.2E", Pressure still around "1007 mb"
Cold wave conditions return to Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/roCeo 

#COLD morning for N India .. Ludhiana = 9 C, Jodhpur = 11 C, Lucknow = 6 C, New Delhi = 9 C

Why "92B" can move N,N-E ?

At present the upper level (above 500hpa) wind direction above 10th parallel is towards N-N-E and N-E ... http://ow.ly/i/3Uhx5 
These upper level winds can act as steering winds for "92B" and if the system moves above 10th parallel then there is a good possibility for it to drift N,N-E away from Tamilnadu coast.
At present (2pm), 92B is located at 8.3 N, 82.6 E as a LOW pressure system.

92B is still a LOW and almost over same location.

#Chennai - rainfall till 8:30am today, Nungambakkam = 52.5mm, Airport = 55.8mm and Polichalur (IWM station @iwmpolichalur ) = 28.2mm
#Chennai - 1:58pm, partly cloudy and warm with less signs of rain till evening.

Heavy rainfall along most of Tamilnadu coast till morning, Pamban = 98.1mm, Cuddalore = 43.4mm, Puducherry = 32mm, Nagapattinam = 54.3mm

1:30pm, mini showers popping again over central coast and adjoining interior central Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3UeRq
 1:30pm, "92B" is still a LOW and almost NO intensification seen.
Pressure around 1007mb.
Located E-coast Srilanka .. http://ow.ly/i/3UeRq

NAVGEM model expects 92B to become as D.Depression on 5-Dec and drift N-E away from Srilanka coast ... http://ow.ly/i/3Uf4v 
GFS also expects 92B to become as Cyclone / D.Depression on 5-Dec after drifting N-E away from Srilanka coast .. http://ow.ly/i/3Uf8N 
But, WRF model suggests that 92B will drift West into S Srilanka and into mouth of Gulf Mannar on 5-Dec ... http://ow.ly/i/3UfcR 

During next 24hrs, moderate rain expected along central,S-E Tamilnadu coast and over adjoining interior zones.
Showers also expected over W-ghats Tamilnadu and over S tamilnadu in next 24hrs.
#Chennai - can expect only light / moderate rain till morning of Wednesday.

" IF " after 24hrs, 92B concentrates into a Depression and drifts N-E... then LESS showers expected over most of Tamilnadu, #Chennai.
" IF ", 92B drifts North or N-W after 24hrs... then more HEAVY rain expected for S-E,central,N Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.