Saturday, October 11, 2014

HudHud - Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for N-E Andhra coast

During past 12hrs, the system has intensified further and in a rapid pace.
Now winds gusting up to a massive and dangerous 240 kmph .!!
Pressure has dropped from 941 mb at 1:30pm to 926.1 mb at 10pm.

Now it is positioned at 200km S-E of Visakapatnam.
Slowly tracking W-N-W , N-W.
RADAR shows that outer bands of the centre is pushing into N-E Andhra coast and HEAVY rain has started.
The interaction with land has started and in next 12hrs the system will degrade to an extent.

By early morning, morning - HudHud will push into N-E Andhra coast (just South of Visakapatnam) as Very Severe Cyclone.
Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for the people living in these region.
VERY Heavy rain and Winds upto 200 kmph will push across after 4am till 2pm of Sunday.
Sunday - Widespread, HEAVY to VERY HEAVY rain expected for N-E ANdhra coast and scattered over Coastal, interior Odisha.

HUDHUD close to visakapattinam

 [1] HUDHUD bright eyes visible.  The tracking is somewhat similar to exactly last year [11 Oct 2013) PHALIN.

[2] The High wind speed recorder at visiakapattinam recorded maximum 23.5kts winds with Northly direction at 11 Oct 2014 / 1758 hrs IST.

[3] HUDHUD is now within DWR visakapattinam range.

[4] Perhaps it may be crossing close to NORTH of TUNI  or in between TUNI and Visakapattinam.

[5] Northerly wind is indicator of outer periphery landfall.

Alert Issued at 5.30 pm IST Saturday!

Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud has intensified to cat 3 ! Colossal damaging winds speed estimated at 105 - 110 knts ,equivalent to 194- 203 kmph !! Winds estimated on DVORAK 1 minute estimates. core pessure estimated at 950 mbar.

112 knts is the outer limit for Cat3...Hudhud rushing towards a damaging Cat 4 status very fast !

Estimated Location: 16.2N and 85E...Thus having tracked WNW from previous reporting. Now barely 275 kms SE of Vizag...
Expected to cross just North of Vizag or around between Saturday mid night and Sunday 3 am...
from Vagaries

Cyclone HudHud intensifying Rapidly , reaches wind speed of 200 km/h , 941 hpa pressure

Hudhud - 12:30pm, more intensification seen..!
Pressure dropped even more 941.7mb.
Winds almost reaching 200kmph.
NE Andhra take care !

Hudhud - 12:30pm, more intensification seen..!
Pressure dropped even more 941.7mb.
Winds almost reaching 200kmph.
NE Andhra take care !

HudHud - very severe Cyclone now, drifted W-S-W and eyeing N-E Andhra !

Analysis indicate, HudHud is now a VERY severe Cyclone with winds gusting to 180 kmph.
During past 12hrs, the system initially showed some weakening and then towards morning it has peaked again.
In 12hrs, the system has drifted W-S-W in the process.

10:45am, visible shows an EYE with good convective activity around centre.
Radius of centre is around 106km.

Latest RADAR from Visakapatnam shows that the eye is around 300km S-E from city.

Landfall is expected along N-E Andhra coast near Visakapatnam in next 24 to 30hrs as Severe Cyclone (winds upto 150 kmph)

#Chennai - 1am, HEAVY rain seen over North at around 40km from city.
Rain may push into city in next 4hrs..

#Chennai - Less or NO rain expected during the day (11-Oct) and even on 12-Oct.
Overcast skies expected on 11,12-Oct.

HudHud in the News !

" Hudhud may bite " ... 

‘Government taking steps to minimise losses’ ... 

Hudhud Turns Into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm: Met Department ... 

Indian railways cancel 40 trains due to cyclone "Hudhud" ... 

Odisha Government to evacuate 3 lakh people, asked all collectors to remain alert on Cyclone Hudhud ... 

HudHud - Weakening observed and tracked N-W again.

ADT analysis at 11pm suggest a "weakening" trend during past 6 hrs.
Pressure has risen now to 984.8 mb
Winds gusting to 120 kmph.
"Now nearing land" - position 15.35 N , 86.31 E.

11pm, Water vapor satellite shot reveals that the centre is intact with good convective activity and nearing land !

On Sunday, noon, 12-Oct-2014, Severe Cyclone HudHud is expected to make landfall along N-E Andhra coast and S Odisha coast.

The remnant of HudHud may travel upto N-central India after making landfall on 12-Oct.


From early morning today (11-Oct) to midnight of 12-Oct... Sea will be extremely rough, with swells reaching up to 35 ft.

11-Oct, noon... Moderate rain expected along Odisha coast, S Bengal coast due to HudHud's outer band.
11-Oct, evening... HEAVY rain will gradually push into Odisha coast.
Some scattered HEAVY t showers also expected over W,S Karnataka, N,N-W Tamilnadu, N,central Kerala.

12-Oct, early hrs, morning... HEAVY rain, high winds will push into N-E Andhra coast and entire Odisha coast.
12-Oct, from morning ... some heavy rain also expected along S Bengal, S Jharkhand and over most of Odisha.
During next 48hrs, Monsoon rain will be active along S,central Karnataka coast and N,central Kerala.

ALERT :: N-E Andhra and Odisha coast take cover