Thursday, October 17, 2013

Davangere - "a HOT day wind No wind"

NE monsoon is near for Tamilnadu coast ! When ? Sunday, 20-Oct ?

Today, the low,mid level circulation over S,S-W Bay persists ... presently an elongated one ... 
The strong Anti-cyclone over S Rajasthan zone persists and will do so during next 3 days ...

GFS suggests, present S Bay circulation is expected to consolidate and track W-N-W towards Central Tamilnadu in 2days 

GFS models suggest a central Tamilnadu coast landfall as a Depression on Monday, 21-Oct.. 
NCMRWF model suggests a near #Chennai landfall as Depression on Monday, 21-Oct ... 
All together, N-E Monsoon is expected to start with a BanG over #Chennai and most of Tamilnadu coast on Sunday / Monday.
Due to this S Bay circulation, Heavy rain expected for W-Ghats of Kerala, W,N-W,S Tamilnadu during next 24hrs .. 
From tomorrow, 18-Oct, scattered "Monsoon type" showers expected to push into land from Sea along #Chennai, N,central Tamilnadu coast.

If the present S Bay circulation materializes as a Depression by Saturday, then HEAVY rain ahead for Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai from Sunday !
HEAVY widespread rain expected to push into central,S-E,N coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai and S Andhra coast on 21-Oct.. 

Rain expected for Kashmir for next 36hrs

Upper level W.D trough seen over N,N-W Pakistan, in next 12hrs, it'll start affecting Kashmir, Himachal and Punjab. 
3pm, Satellite IR shows cloudiness over N Pakistan and into Kashmir ...

The present W.D trough is expected to move away East in next 36hrs... expected to give some rain for Kashmir, N Punjab, N Himachal.

Signs of NE Monsoon over #Chennai !!

As of today, SW Monsoon is withdrawing in a hurry now, while N-E monsoon for Tamilnadu, S Andhra is getting into shape !

#Chennai - 3:40pm, Humid and warm so far with some zones getting strong drizzles around 10am to 12pm.
#Chennai - 3:40pm, now the upper and lower level winds are from N-E. This shift is due to low,mid level circulation present over S,S-W Bay.
#Chennai - mid morning the conditions are "like" N-E Monsoon. 
Easterlies has not picked strength, so NO  monsoon showers from Sea so far.

3pm, S,S-W Bay, Srilanka is very active due to an elongated low,mid level circulation present over S,S-W Bay... 
3pm, Rain seen over S, N Tamilnadu, S-coast Andhra and over S Kerala ...