Wednesday, June 30, 2010
4pm, Almost full of west coast is taking a break.. spotted with isolated showers along coastline... http://ow.ly/i/2kYG
4pm, Heavy showers over N and N-E Andhra, S. central, S-E Maharastra, central & S-E Madhyapradesh... http://ow.ly/i/2kYG
4pm, W. central and N-W Bay is very active ... already we have a LOW just along S. Orissa coast... http://ow.ly/i/2kYG
RT @EcoSeed: African countries doing their part for a greener future http://bit.ly/d9Crni africanministerial africanrenewable green
June 2010 is over and done with. The story of the Monsoon till end June is vague and haphazard. A stunted progress, and a completely distorted movement.
The monsoon set in over Kerala on May 31 and reached Mumbai on 11 June. A day early, and a date late to the normal dates.
It covered the northeastern states slightly earlier than the normal time, but reached Kolkata only on June 13, about a week later than normal.
As of Tuesday, the monsoon has reached up to central and east India, as per the Monsoon limit line in the IMD map.
Rainfall activity being reported from most of the areas covered are not too uniform, and are sporadic and scanty in the Gujarat region. (Shall put up the monsoon performance map/report till end June as soon as it is published by IMD).
Maharashtra is still on the "pre-monsoon " stage, with thundershowers developing, specially over North Mah. region, every afternoon,but pouring heavy rains in very isolated pockets, and clearing by the the morning.
Else, the rain accumalation map shows some precipitation along west coast, and in patches elsewhere.
But things do not differ much than what has been mentioned in my blog dated 22nd. June, from which I reproduce - "If, after this week, the axis of the monsoon shifts further north towards the Himalayas, and deepens,then the entire peninsula region is in for an unwanted "break". This may delay the monsoon progress into the Northern regions and subsequently into the North-West corner". Mentioned also in my footnote of the blog of 20th.
"The "interfering" monsoon axis has always been my main concern of worry, and has proved that it can create a sort of break monsoon.
My worst fears were that the monsoon would halt, and it sure did ! From the18th, its been stationary, there has not been any advance of the monsoon over new areas since then.
There were many forecasts and "hopes" of the monsoon advancing, but as mentioned in "Vagaries", the MJO has been consistently negative for further advance since the last 12 days.Readers must have checked this point on the link provided in my blog dated the 22nd.
The 200 level jet streams are still stuck at 20N, and will allow the monsoon to progress only when it shifts Northwards.
Now, any further progress will be halted till the formation of a monsoon low pressure area/depressions over the Bay of Bengal.
Interestingly, the COLA has estimated an UAC to form over NorthMaharashtra/South M.P.by 2nd, and the circulation is projected to move west. If so, then good and much needed rains could commence in Saurashtra on the weekend, as COLA estimates rainfall upto 100 mms in the region.
I will cautiously monitor the forming of the UAC.
Strong westerly flows, due to the axix position, over most parts of northwest/ central India and frequent western disturbances have disturbed the monsoon's smooth advance. And the W.D's are making "hay" due to the total absence of any systems from the bay. These are the days for the bay to dominate, not the W.D's.
Now, IMD has said in a special bulletin on Tuesday "that monsoon is unlikely to advance into the remaining parts of east and central India during the next four days.the remaining parts of central and east India are expected to be covered by the end of first week of July and the entire country by the middle of July".
Like i mentioned, nothing on the horizon till 5th. July at least. We preview and monitor again for any good developments each day.
Mumbai June report tomorrow.
The monsoon set in over Kerala on May 31 and reached Mumbai on 11 June. A day early, and a date late to the normal dates.
It covered the northeastern states slightly earlier than the normal time, but reached Kolkata only on June 13, about a week later than normal.
As of Tuesday, the monsoon has reached up to central and east India, as per the Monsoon limit line in the IMD map.
Rainfall activity being reported from most of the areas covered are not too uniform, and are sporadic and scanty in the Gujarat region. (Shall put up the monsoon performance map/report till end June as soon as it is published by IMD).
Maharashtra is still on the "pre-monsoon " stage, with thundershowers developing, specially over North Mah. region, every afternoon,but pouring heavy rains in very isolated pockets, and clearing by the the morning.
Else, the rain accumalation map shows some precipitation along west coast, and in patches elsewhere.
But things do not differ much than what has been mentioned in my blog dated 22nd. June, from which I reproduce - "If, after this week, the axis of the monsoon shifts further north towards the Himalayas, and deepens,then the entire peninsula region is in for an unwanted "break". This may delay the monsoon progress into the Northern regions and subsequently into the North-West corner". Mentioned also in my footnote of the blog of 20th.
"The "interfering" monsoon axis has always been my main concern of worry, and has proved that it can create a sort of break monsoon.
My worst fears were that the monsoon would halt, and it sure did ! From the18th, its been stationary, there has not been any advance of the monsoon over new areas since then.
There were many forecasts and "hopes" of the monsoon advancing, but as mentioned in "Vagaries", the MJO has been consistently negative for further advance since the last 12 days.Readers must have checked this point on the link provided in my blog dated the 22nd.
The 200 level jet streams are still stuck at 20N, and will allow the monsoon to progress only when it shifts Northwards.
Now, any further progress will be halted till the formation of a monsoon low pressure area/depressions over the Bay of Bengal.
Interestingly, the COLA has estimated an UAC to form over NorthMaharashtra/South M.P.by 2nd, and the circulation is projected to move west. If so, then good and much needed rains could commence in Saurashtra on the weekend, as COLA estimates rainfall upto 100 mms in the region.
I will cautiously monitor the forming of the UAC.
Strong westerly flows, due to the axix position, over most parts of northwest/ central India and frequent western disturbances have disturbed the monsoon's smooth advance. And the W.D's are making "hay" due to the total absence of any systems from the bay. These are the days for the bay to dominate, not the W.D's.
Now, IMD has said in a special bulletin on Tuesday "that monsoon is unlikely to advance into the remaining parts of east and central India during the next four days.the remaining parts of central and east India are expected to be covered by the end of first week of July and the entire country by the middle of July".
Like i mentioned, nothing on the horizon till 5th. July at least. We preview and monitor again for any good developments each day.
Mumbai June report tomorrow.
RT @propbestdeals: Best Property Deals: Neev Infra to launch rain water harvesting projects in Mumbai http://bit.ly/ceTjJb
Another N-W Bay low is predicted around 1-Jul... and this'll push the Monsoon into N-W India starting from 4-Jul... http://ow.ly/i/2kKQ
Monsoon hold-up in parts of east, central India may last until Sunday
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in a special bulletin on Tuesday that monsoon is unlikely to advance into the remaining parts of east and central India during the next four days.
But some weather models predict that the monsoon flow will strengthen thereafter, likely leading to its advancement up to northwest India.
LATE IN KOLKATA
In this manner, the remaining parts of central and east India are expected to be covered by the end of first week of July and the entire country by the middle of July.
Tracing back the progress of the rains, the IMD said the monsoon set in over Kerala on May 31 and reached Mumbai on 11 June, both very near to the normal dates.
It managed to cover the northeastern states slightly earlier than the normal time, but reached Kolkata only on June 13, about a week later than normal.
As of Tuesday, the monsoon has reached up to central and east India. Good rainfall activity is being reported from most of the areas covered, too, but there has not been any advance of the monsoon over new areas since June 18.
Further progress is halted mainly due to non-formation of a monsoon low pressure area/depressions over the Bay of Bengal.
Strong northwesterly flows prevailing over most parts of northwest and adjoining central India and frequent western disturbances have upset the monsoon rhythm, inhibiting its advance over the remaining parts of the country.
WESTERN DISTURBANCE
On Tuesday, an inbound western disturbance persisted over north Pakistan and neighbourhood on Tuesday.
It is expected to affect the western Himalayas and plains of northwest India during next 2-3 days.
Due to the weak Bay of Bengal branch of monsoon, there is some delay in advance over northern parts of Madhya Pradesh, western parts of Bihar and most parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkhand, the IMD said.
Meanwhile, a few international models predicted the formation of a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal around Thursday.
While this may not help the cause of monsoon progress into areas not covered as on date, another round of peninsular rains may be in the offing.
A ‘low' taking shape near the head Bay of Bengal is the most ideal scenario that can help drive the monsoon current west-northwest into northwest India.
The 24 hours ending Tuesday morning saw widespread rainfall being reported from Assam and Meghalaya in the northeast and fairly widespread over the west coast.
NORTHERN LIMIT
The northern limit of monsoon continued to pass through Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Indore, Seoni, Pendra, Ambikapur, Daltonganj, Gaya, Muzaffarpur and Raxaul, an alignment reached more than a week ago. Satellite imagery showed convective (rain-generating) clouds over parts of Assam, Meghalaya, southeast Arabian Sea, southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
The IMD has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during the next two days.
An outlook until Sunday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall activity over east and northeast India and along west coast. Isolated heavy falls are also likely at these places during this period, the IMD said.
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