Sunday, May 31, 2015

Tele connection and SWM on set

{a} The Power House is strong with 1032 hPa.

{b} Its effect will be felt in TN & SE coast immediately.

{c} This will pave way for the strengthening of SWM monsoon in Bay.

{4}The North Eastern states soon be getting rainfall.

Descriptive 10 days forecast for North coast of TANZANIA.

[This tele connection is giving more insight over the onset of SWM in the west coast of India.]

During dekad 15 of 2015, the southern high pressure systems are expected to intensify significantly, while their counterparts to the north are expected to relax. Thus the ITCZ is expected to continue moving northwards from its current position. This movement will influence weather over unimodal and bimodal areas of the country, especially over Western, South-western highlands, Southern, Southern coast and central regions where seasonal rains has ended, while in the northern coast, north-eastern highland and Lake Victoria basin of the country seasonal rains are expected to recede. Warm SSTs are expected to be observed over Atlantic Ocean closer to Angola coast.
Neutral to slightly warm sea surface temperatures are expected to be observed East Africa coast while warm SSTs are expected over the Somali coast in the West Indian Ocean and in the Central Indian Ocean. Low level wind speed is likely to start rising over some parts of the country (Tanzania) and are expected to be characterized by southerly winds over the eastern sector of the country turning to south-easterly over remaining parts of the country

Courtesy : Tanzania Meteorological Agency.


May 31, 2015 at 05:44PM

Srinagar - 5:44pm, Overcast since afternoon but no rain yet, fresh light snowfall on nearby hills. #iwm

May 31, 2015 at 05:33PM

RT @SaifArash: its raining here at Areekode, Malappuram, Kerala #Weather #India @weatherofindia 3:18pm, #iwm

Weather at May 31, 2015 at 05:28PM

4:20pm, Bangalore - just before heavy rains. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 31, 2015 at 05:22PM

3:49pm, Heavy raining started at Belgaum city. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 31, 2015 at 05:19PM

3:10pm, Rain near Hosur. 3:35pm, reports of heavy rain in Hosur. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 31, 2015 at 05:15PM

2:20pm, Dohnavur - Thundershowers in S tip Ghats and also in Eastern plains. #weather

from Instagram

May 31, 2015 at 01:37PM

Chennai - 1:30pm, temp now is 37 C, feels like 44 C and humidity on higher side at 61%. #iwm

May 31, 2015 at 01:28PM

Nagercoil - 1:25pm, heavy rain for past 30min. Showers coming in from SSW. #iwm

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Vagaries' maintains its earlier view, that Monsoon will move into Kerala on 4th/5th June..and progress North towards Coastal Karntaka around 6th June....
Northern Pakistan Punjab, North Indian Plains likely to see cooling down and days getting better at around 40c. As announced earlier, Western Disturbance M-5 will be covering North Pakistan and NW India and Northern Hill States from 31st May, and strengthening over the entire region on June 1st.

Rains will cover Southwards upto Central and Upper Sindh, adjoining Rajasthan and parts of MP. on 2nd/3rd June.

UAC has formed in the Southern Bay..East of TN coast...rains likely in TN on Sunday 31st...UAC likely to move Northwards along the Coast to Coastal AP. Coastal AP will get major relief from heat from Monday 1st as rains will cool down the region.

From Vagaries

SWM onset

 Even the the POWER HOUSE is close to normal position it is tilly-tallying in East -West direction.

The very SOUTHERLY winds expected to be at Somalia Coast has NOT picked up.

However Winds are strong SOUTHERLY / 30 KMPH at Tanzania coast. [Cities like Daree Salam, Zanzibar reported those winds]

Southerly winds are taking SWly direction just above 5 Deg North.

Weather at May 30, 2015 at 08:22AM

This was Bangalore, evening of 29-May. Recorded 18mm, and more rain ahead today. #weather

from Instagram

Friday, May 29, 2015

Monsoon onset and complicated 1st week of June

Today, the low-level N-S LWD is seen from E-central, East India to N,N-W Tamilnadu ... 
Today, the HEAT along S-E coast of India is slightly lower, due to low-level winds from S, S-S-E that is from Bay.

Chennai - Airport records 40.3 C while Nungambakkam records 38.6 C.
In rest of India, especially N,central,E-central India the #HOT conditions continued and will continue !
#HOT conditions to continue over central, E-central, S-E coast upto N-E,central Tamilnadu on 30,31-May... 

Today, HEAVY rain occurred along W,N-W,S Karnataka due to slightly Westward drift of seasonal N-S trough over India.
Something like April.
Westward drift of N-S trough can be attributed to the S central Bay's mid,upper-level circulation and West movement 
Today, the upper-level circulation is also seen over same S-central Bay and seen drifting West... 

By 1-Jun, both the mid, upper-level S-central Bay circulation is expected to drift near to N-coast Tamilnadu... 
This is expected to launch the SW Monsoon along S-coast Kerala on 2-Jun as a weak current ! 
To make things worse, a mid, low-level circulation is expected on 2/3-Jun over S,S-E Arabian sea and models suggest a strengthening !
@MODIfiedLiv >> With NO LOW in North or central Bay .. the Monsoon start is expected to be weak atleast for 3/5 days along Kerala coast.

On 30-May...
HEAVY T showers again for W-ghats Kerala, N,N-W,S-W,S Karnataka and N,N-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu ... 
On Sunday, 31-May...
More T showers for W,S-W,S,S-central Karnataka and this time some heavy along Karnataka coast as well.
On Sunday into Monday... Monsoon style showers possible along Kerala coast, S-coast Karnataka and S-tip Tamilnadu 
More rain for N,N-W,w-ghats,N-central Tamilnadu on Sunday, 31-May.

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 10:40PM

Dharwad - aftermath of today evening's heavy T shower. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 07:59PM

6:30pm, visible shows the T showers over S,W,NW Karnataka. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 05:30PM

5:20pm, Bangalore - a T shower is approaching city from East. Raining now 5:30. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 04:17PM

3:43pm, Tumkur - Thunder clouds approaching from north, north east. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 03:21PM

3pm, a heavy T shower line seen from 80km west of Chennai to 230km. Drifting South. #weather

from Instagram

May 29, 2015 at 02:55PM

Belgaum - 2:52pm, Rain started here in sambra airport. #iwm

May 29, 2015 at 02:54PM

Srinagar - 2:50pm, Rain started in srinagar. #iwm

Weather at May 29, 2015 at 02:42PM

2:39pm, Thunderclouds seen over south east from belgaum. #weather

from Instagram

May 29, 2015 at 01:07PM

Chennai - 1pm, temp now is 36.1 C and touched a max of 38.1 C. Now sea breeze has set in so less chance of temp going up. #iwm

May 29, 2015 at 01:05PM

Mahape, Navi Mumbai - current temp 36.8c with 62% humidity. Real feel 52c Badlapur - 36c with 56% humidity. Real feel 46c - 1 pm. #iwm

The temporary "Burst effect" of monsoonal winds in AS

 My meteorological Guru told about the WEAK establishment of 'MASCERE HIGH" in its normal position.  Further the strength of the other ensemble "High" near 90 Deg East is prominent.
This will give (pseudo) wind penetration in Arabian Sea.

It is clear SWM is dominant along 4 Deg North. [Mali] and in Andamans.

This sort of weather will enhance day time temperature further in the 'TEMPERATURE HOT BED "  locations in TN & Telengana and AP.  This is mainly due to continental-DRY westerly or HOT DRY north westerly winds from deserts in NW locations.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

More T showers ahead for S,S-W Karnataka, N,N-W Tamilnadu

Today, the low-level N-S LWD is seen from Bihar,central Bengal to N-E Tamilnadu all along S-E coast of India ... 

Today, the E-W 700hpa wind shear zone seen from E-central Bay to N Maldives passing thru N,central Srilanka ... 
The weak upper-level circulation over S-central Bay persists and expected to drift West near to TN in 2/3 days !... 
On 31-May, both upper,mid-level circulation over Bay is expected to come near to N Tamilnadu coast ... 

Conditions and models still suggest a 1/2-Jun monsoon onset over S-coast Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu.
On 1-Jun, the present mid,upper-level circulation is expected to be over N-coastTamilnadu and S-coast Andhra .. 

On 31-May, 1-Jun.. a mid,upper-level WD trough is also expected to affect N,central Pakistan and N,N-W India.. 

Rainfall forecast
Before early hrs of 29-May...
HEAVY T showers again for S,S-W,S-E Karnataka, Bangalore into N,N-W,N-E Tamilnadu... 
Today, some T showers also for S,N-E Andhra and S Telegana.

On 29-May... HEAVY T showers for S,S-W,W,E Karnataka into N,N-W,N-central Tamilnadu and W-ghats Kerala.. 

More Nor'westers forecast for N,W,central Bengal on today !
T showers to continue over many zones of N-E states !

Weather at May 28, 2015 at 11:39AM

Chennai - 11:30am, getting hot after a mild cloudy morning. Now at 35.3 C. #weather

from Instagram

May 28, 2015 at 07:33AM

@fabwrite -- Chennai - Present high cloud cover will clear to a hot day. A T shower possible for W,SW,NW suburbs in evening / late. #iwm

May 28, 2015 at 07:11AM

Chennai - 6:30am, Ennore and some northern suburbs got a moderate shower. High cloud cover continue over city. #iwm

Weather at May 28, 2015 at 06:43AM

12am, Bangalore - T shower. It rained in Mysore too with thunder. #weather

from Instagram

May 28, 2015 at 12:43AM

RT @thisismmk: @weatherofindia 10pm rain started in Erode, Tamilnadu. Heavy drizzle getting heavier by minute. 10:20pm, heavy rain. #iwm

May 28, 2015 at 12:41AM

9pm, 27-May, Its raining in Pudukottai, Tamilnadu. #iwm

Weather at May 28, 2015 at 12:38AM

5:36pm, 27-May - Vellore, T showers for 3 hrs. #weather

from Instagram

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Why is Chennai " COLD " today? 30 C at 4:30pm

Today, Chennai recorded a max of 37.6 C at around 11am and now, 4:45pm it is 29.9 C.
IWM Polichalur is 30.3 C.

Thanks to heavy HIGH cloud cover. This cloud cover came into land from a Thunderstorm over Bay very near to Chennai coast.

The T shower over Bay is due to the upper-level (500hpa) circulation over central Bay.

4:30pm, Now, HEAVY T showers seen over W,S-W from Chennai at 60 to 100km.

Parameters getting right for Monsoon onset over Kerala on 1-Jun-2015

1-Jun, the famous SW monsoon date is nearing... and the parameters are getting right for onset over Kerala coast on 1-Jun-2015.

Today as well, the N-S low-level trough from Bihar is seen upto N-E Andhra and will persist for next 2 days... 

Today, an upper-level (500hpa) weak circulation seen over central Bay and expected to drift W-S-W in 2 days... 

On the day of Monsoon onset over Kerala, E-W mid-level (700hpa) wind shear zone will / should run thru 13/14N !
At present this mid-level wind shear zone is running from central Andaman to central Maldives... 
Today's upper-level (500hpa) circulation over central Bay will drop a mid-level (700hpa) circulation in same location in next 36hrs.
And this mid-level circulation is expected to drift West towards Tamilnadu coast on 30,31-May... 
Gradually moving the mid-level E-W wind shear zone to North.
So, monsoon for S-E Srilanka, Colombo expected on 31-May.

Latest GFS model, the Monsoon will reach S-coast Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu on its designated date " 1-Jun-2015 " .. 
GFS forecast for Trivandrum shows...
700hpa winds change to Westerlies on 31-May / 1-Jun ... 

Meanwhile T shower activity over Kerala, N,N-W,central Tamilnadu to increase from today !
27-May... T showers for N,central,N-W,W-ghats of Tamilnadu and N,central,W-ghats of Kerala... 
T showers again for N,central,N-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu and scattered all over Kerala.
S-coast Kerala, S-tip coast Tamilnadu can get early morning rain on 28-May.
27,28-May... some T showers are expected to pop into S,S-E Karnataka as well.

Nor'westers again for N,central Bengal and E Bihar on 27,28-May.
More HEAVY rain to continue over many zones of N-E states of India.
On evening, late-evening of 28-May... T showers, dust storm possible for N,N-W Rajasthan and even into S Punjab.

Above 45 C days ahead for Uttarpradesh, Andhra

Super #HOT days to continue for next 3 days over N,N-W,central,E-central,East, S-E and N,central Peninsula India.. 
Next 3 days, Above 45 C #HOT temps expected over Uttarpradesh, E Madhyapradesh, Jharkhand, Chatisgarh, W,central Odisha, Andhra, Telegana

#Chennai - 10:50am, Temp is 37.6 C and expected to touch 41/42 C today before 2:30pm.
During next 3 days, Vellore can touch a 44 C. And 43 / 44 C possible even for #Chennai.

#HOT #Delhi - the temp is expected to be around 45 C for the city during next 3 days ! 
RT @ShrivantR: @weatherofindia #Delhi morning today was cooler than past few days. 27c vs 30-31c. 

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Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Weather at May 26, 2015 at 05:16PM

4:40pm, massive Nor'wester seen along Jharkhand and Bengal border. Will push E-S-E. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 26, 2015 at 05:12PM

5:05pm, Vellore - moderate showers after a #hot day. #weather

from Instagram

HOT days and T showers ahead for N Tamilnadu, S Andhra

SUPER #HOT days to persist over N-W,N,W,central,East,S-E coast, N,central Peninsular India for next 3 days.. 
Towns, cities in Andhra, Telegana continue to top the #HOT temperature list... On 25-May.
Kakinada 46.7 C
Rentachintala 46.6 C
Here's the top #HOT 40s list of 25-May ... 

Heat Wave Kills More Than 700 in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Last Few Days Were Worst ... 

Chennai - Airport #HOT..
20-May 39.6 C
21-May 40 C
22-May 40 C
23-May 39.7 C
24-May 42.3 C
25-May 42.4 C
Today, high cloud cover, 39 C.


Today evening - T showers possible over N,N-central Tamilnadu and into S,S-E Karnataka, S Andhra .. 
HEAVY nor'westers possible for N,central,W Bengal and over N,E Bihar, N-E Odisha today, 25-May.

Monsoon like conditions with moderate/light rain to prevail along S coast Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.

On 27-May, Moderate T showers for N,central,W-ghats Kerala and over n,N-central,N-W Tamilnadu, S,S-E Karnataka, S Andhra.
Today and 27-May... Some T showers can reach upto 50/30km to #Chennai W,S-W suburbs... 

Weather at May 26, 2015 at 12:03PM

Chennai - 12pm, having a thin high cloud cover, keeping temp down at 37.4 C. #weather

from Instagram

Monday, May 25, 2015

Hottest Centres on Monday 25th (Major and Small Stations) Of India, Pakistan & Nepal (46 C and above)
Dadu 49.c  Moen jo Daro, Nawabshah 48.5c, Larkana, Jacobabad 47.5c  Sukkur, Rohri 47c   Sibbi 46c
(Non IMD Stations)
Bhattiprolu (AP)  48.1c
Dwaraka Tirumala  47.8c (AP)
Nelivada (AP) 47.7c

IMD Stations
Angul  47.0c
JANGAMAHESWARAPURAM 46.8c ..full list on

Weather at May 25, 2015 at 02:47PM

Chennai - 2:40pm, strong sea breeze has set in. Nungambakkam 38.1 C after reaching 42.2 C. #weather

from Instagram

More HOT HOT days ahead for most of India

A low-level N-S trough (Heat induced) seen from Bihar to N-E Andhra coast, S Odisha coast ... 
Due to this , strong, dry and hot Westerlies will persist over most of Andhra, upto N,N-central Tamilnadu.
More HOT and HOT days to come for N,W,central,East,S-E India... 

Chennai - 12pm, Nungambakkam has touched 40.5 C and may reach 43 C today !

Chennai - 12pm, At surface,low-levels the westerlies is pretty strong now and this'll hinder the Sea breeze onset.

Monsoon for Maldives in next 2 days

Today, the S-E coast N-S trough from Bihar can be seen upto S-W Bay.
N-W India heat low is at 996mb... 

Monsoon for Maldives expected in next 36 or 48hrs.
This is a LIVE web cam shot from Maldives.. 
By Wednesday the monsoon will be over most Islands of Maldives... 
Click here for LIVE web cam from Maldives

Latest 700hpa wind analysis and GFS model suggest that Monsoon for S Kerala can be expected on 2/3-Jun ! .. 

Meanwhile, upper,mid-level trough, weak circulation persist over E Bay along Andamans .. 
This upper-level circulation is expected to persist and drift West into E-central Bay during next 2 days... 
During next 36hrs, Heavy rain to persist for N,central Andamans.
For past 5 days, Port Blair has recorded 252mm.

An upper-level WD trough is expected to skirt along (while moving East) over N Pakistan and Kashmir in next 36hrs... 

During next 36hrs, T showers due to heat is expected to pop over N,N-W,N-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu and W-ghats Kerala.
Moderate rain to persist over S coast Kerala for next 36hrs ... 
T showers also for S-W,W Karnataka, central,N Bengal and at many places over N-E states during next 36hrs.
More rain ahead for Kashmir into N Himachal and upper-reaches of Uttarakhand as well during next 36hrs.

Weather at May 25, 2015 at 08:49AM

Yesterday night T shower over kanyakumari dist, as seen from behind W-ghats. Nagercoil 25mm. #weather

from Instagram

Sunday, May 24, 2015

May 24, 2015 at 10:00PM

Nagercoil - 9:42pm, heavy electric shower for past 40min. #iwm

Weather at May 24, 2015 at 10:04PM

Bhubaneshwar - 4:54pm, T showers after recording 45.6c at 3:30pm. #weather

from Instagram

May 24, 2015 at 09:25PM

#Chennai - super #hot day! Airport records 42.3 C. Now 9:16pm it is 33.3 C. #iwm

Weather at May 24, 2015 at 05:34PM

Chennai - 5:30pm, hot. A T shower seen over SW at 30 and 70km from city. #weather

from Instagram

Weather at May 24, 2015 at 09:48AM

Hyderabad 43.6 C, Vijayawada 47.2 C. Death toll in Andhra & Telegana rises to 223 #weather

from Instagram

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Moen jo Daro, Pakistan reaches 50c, Nawabshah saw 49.2c....and Sibbi (Pakistan) records a max of 48c and  a minimum of 35.0c on Saturday Morning...!! That's Hot ! Very Hot and sizzling !!

Hottest in India On Saturday was Vijaywada which measured 47.3c

More on

Friday, May 22, 2015

Upwelling near Somalia

 The Power House is positioning itself in its NORMAL place. The Wyopming 1000 hPa  Indian Ocean plot as well as Mauritius Meteorological Service 1600 hrs  LT chart depicts the same.

The upwelling near Somalia Coast [i,e interaction in sea] is to take place to bring the SST down by 23 Deg Celsius.  The ocean+ atmospheric reaction is to take place near Somalia Coast to trigger Somali Jet.

This will enhance Arabian Sea (AS) SWM to enter Indian land. But still westerlies are NOT prominent in AS.  There forms a trough in        Eastely in AS which may some times inhibit the SWM wind in AS further.

Thai 220515 12Z

Mauritius Met Service
In Indian SE coast the winds are SWly with 18-25 knots at 0.3 1.2 ams. This prevents convective clouds formations amidst hot and humid condition prevailing [especially Chennai] at coasts.