Tuesday, November 02, 2010

RT @alertnet: Haiti scrambles to prepare for feared hurricane hit http://ow.ly/331ji Hurricane "Tomas"
US to help India better its monsoon forecast ... http://ow.ly/3309v
IMD :: Alert for fresh cyclone formation in Bay of Bengal ... http://ow.ly/32Yzy

Alert for fresh cyclone formation in Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal is being put under watch for cyclone formation as an existing depression in the Gulf of Thailand sails into South Andaman Sea where enabling conditions are building up.
A Thai Met Department update on Monday said that the tropical depression in the lower Gulf of Thailand was centred about 160 km east of the nearest Southern Thailand coast with sustained winds speeding up to 50 km/hr.

THAILAND LANDFALL
The system has been moving in a northwest direction at a speed of 15 km/hr and is expected to make landfall over the southern provinces during the night itself.
Both sides of the Thai Gulf would remain cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and heavy to very heavy rain. Northeasterly winds are expected to clock 28 to 50 km/hr.
As for the Andaman Sea, the Thai Met Department has forecast cloudy weather with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain in the lower Andaman Sea and Malacca Strait with wind speeds touching 50 km/hr.

IMD JOINS WATCH
India Meteorological Department (IMD) joined a number of international weather models in mounting the watch for the possible cyclone, materialising close on the heels of Super Cyclone Giri that hit the Myanmar coast last week.
The brewing cyclone could be racing towards the Tamil Nadu-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast for a landfall, say consensus predictions.
But the US Navy model saw the storm progressing west from the South Andaman Sea in a linear fashion and hitting Sri Lanka.

LANDFALL OVER TN
The landfall could take place by the weekend and the weakened storm is expected to head north-northwest into Western Maharashtra before being guided north-northeast by possible westerly winds into West Madhya Pradesh.
Two dedicated cyclone tracking models, Roundy-Albany and the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, too seemed to signal the North Tamil Nadu (including Chennai)-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh for a landfall for the building storm.

WIDESPREAD RAIN
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and south Karnataka during the next two days.
It would be isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Kerala on Tuesday.
During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, widespread rainfall has occurred over coastal Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh, an IMD update said.
It was fairly widespread over interior Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Kerala and scattered over Chhattisgarh and interior Orissa.

CLOUD IMAGERY
Satellite cloud imagery showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of West-central and south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, southeast Arabian Sea, South Orissa, south Chhattisgarh, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation over West-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Coastal Andhra Pradesh persisted.
Forecast until Thursday spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over coastal Andhra Pradesh.
It will be fairly widespread over Tamil Nadu, the rest of Andhra Pradesh, South Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over north Karnataka on Tuesday and may increase thereafter.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh on Tuesday.
Chennai - central zones got 20.6 mm in past 24 hrs.. while S-W suburbs got more than 5 cm of rain.
FNMOC NOGAPS model also suggests a Central Tamilnadu landfall on 7-Nov for upcoming cyclone .. http://ow.ly/i/57hT

Update on the S-E Bay low .. upcoming cyclone "JAL" ??

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 100.6E, 
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION, 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), PERSISTING OVER THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HAT YAI INTERNATIONAL 
(VTSS) HAVE INDICATED VARIABLE WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 6 MB'S (OBSERVATION 
OF 1003 MB AT 01/16Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
FNMOC EFS model is the only model which suggests a cyclone / depression landfall on 7-Nov over Central Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/57ht
11:30am, central Andhra coast receiving sharp showers, while the cloud mass related to S-E bay low can be seen.. http://ow.ly/i/57hj
Chennai - Diwali day will have one or 2 moderate sharp showers.. as the cylcone / depression is expected to come near on 6-Nov.
IMD-GFS predicts the upcoming cyclone to come very near to Chennai on 6-Nov before moving in N-W direction and crossing S. Andhra coast.
A marked low pressure system will be seen over S-E corner Bay on afternoon of 3-Nov.
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RT @tessydotty: chennai + rain + bus + share auto... frustrated to the core...
A low circulation is slowly coming out of Malacca strait .. this is the Seed for upcoming cyclone over in next 2 days. http://ow.ly/i/57gP
Yesterday's low circulation over N>Tamilnadu is now over S. karnataka and slowly moving west.. it'll cross into Arabian sea on 3-Nov
Chennai - Cloud movement & wind is from S-S-E... this is due to a low circulation over S. Karnataka .. and it's moving west.
RT @balajisanjeev: Rains during the early hours today in the Meenambakkam area... Chennai @weatherofindia