Monday, November 03, 2008

More on MJO...

More on MJO and it seems it still holds the rains away from South-Asia.

Here is an abstract abt MJO from blog..

The top panel shows the analysis (as of 0000 UTC Oct. 28). The green marks the "wet phase" and is centered over SE Asia and the "Island Continent" (the area of Indonesia). Dry phase is mostly over the Americas but is building over Africa, too.

Forecast is for a reversal within about two weeks, which would put the dry phase squarely over SE Asia through Australia. Shortly thereafter, the wet phase is forecast to return to the Indian Ocean.

What does all of this mean? Well, given what little I know about the MJO, it looks to me as though the broad-scale upward motion (tropical and sub-tropical) promoting wet weather over the western North Pacific is set to yield to broad-scale sinking and drying during the first half of November. And the dry weather that has set in over the Indian Subcontinent may hold until the latter half of the month. In the Americas, maybe the stubborn drought and heat over much of Brasil will break and the yearly summer rain at last get in fully under way (early to mid-November).