Saturday, September 12, 2015

Heavy rain ahead for S Odisha and N Andhra

Today, low,mid-level circulation seen over N-W central Bay, its upper-level circulation seen near central coast Andhra ..
N-W central Bay also hosts a sea level LOW at 1004mb.
West coast offshore trough seen from S coast Maharastra to central coast Kerala

GFS expects this Bay LOW to persist along N-coast Andhra and even deepen to a depression in next 3 days ...
On 14/15-Sep, the expected depression / WML is expected to cross into N coast Andhra...

From today till Tuesday... Karnataka coast and Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu  will continue to get scattered moderate / heavy rain.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
Before morning of 13-Sep...
Scattered T showers over N-E,central,S Andhra, S Odisha, Telegana, N-W,N,N-E Karnataka.
More Scattered T showers expected over W,S,S-central Maharastra on today and Sunday...

Today, scattered T showers also possible for S,S-central Gujarat.

More HEAVY T showers ahead for N Andhra on today, 13,14-Sep.

For N,N-E Tamilnadu and Chennai... isolated T showers possible on today and before Sunday evening.

NO significant rainfall activities

Some of my Blogger friends refused to accept Mascarene High position and its relation with SWM.  I strongly believe that this tele-connection is playing a vital role in SWM rainfall (especially) over south India.  The strength and drift of western Planck of this STM to 85 Deg East, says that there will be lull or nearly NO significant rainfall activities in west coast barring Kanyakumari district for another 48-72 hours.  No GFS nor MME or other model output,  BUT SIMPLE interpretation.

SWM2015 SIGNATURE is unique as any other SWM.  But (1) spatial distribution (2) temporal variations (3) NO monsoon depression but only UACs (4) Lesser strength monsoon current at 850hPa and aloft are unique.

Tibetan High influence [apart from EL NINO or IOD or MJO etc] is less marked even though NE and adjoining places experienced good rainfall.

One must infer the actual rainfall in {a} chinna kallar {2} Hulikal {3} Agumbe etc to come to conclusion of SWM rainfall distribution in Karnataka and to some extend in Tamil Nadu too.

The SUN is heading towards Equator in its south bound journey.  SWM withdrawal in upper latitude will commence soon.