Friday, June 05, 2015

AS-1 prevails as a low in the Arabian Sea, at 11N and 67.6E and is expected to track N/NW next 24-36 hrs, and deepen from the current estimated core of 1002/1004 mb to 1000 mb. 
Currently in warm waters at 31c, after crossing 15N, it may run into competitively cooler waters at 29c, and then again NW into waters at 28c. Consequently, it may stagger at Well Marked Low or Depression Stage around North Arabian Sea and dissipate as a system by the 9th before hitting Land.

From vagaries

HOT central,N-W India

During next 2 days, HOT day and nights will continue over N,N-W, central, E-central, N,central Peninsula India... 

At present an upper,mid-level trough seen over N,N-W India and expected to fizzle out in next 36hrs... 

4:20pm, HEAVY T showers seen over S Andhra from around 100km N-W from Chennai city ... 

Monsoon late again due to Arabian sea LOW

Monsoon onset along Kerala coast is late again due to S-central Arabian sea LOW ... 
Present LOW over S-central Arabian sea "95A" is slowly organizing itself and drifting North. It's circulation seen upto Upper-levels.
Due to 95A, the monsoon current and moisture is getting encircled around the LOW and seen weak along Kerala coast.. 

This 95A is expected to drift North and intensify during next 2 days. GFS suggests a rapid intensification to Cyclone By Monday.
GFS expects 95A to move North and become a Cyclone by Monday, 8-Jun and reach near to S-W Gujarat coast, S Pakistan 
At present the Arabian sea LOW 95A is located at 10.3N, 66.9E.. and pressure is around 1003mb.

At this same time, N-central Bay is having a mid-level trough extending from Bihar ... 
The central,w-central Bay is expected to drop weak low-level and strong mid,upper-level circulation by 7-Jun... 
This Bay circulation is expected to drift W-S-W and come close to S-coast Andhra on evening of 7-Jun.

IMD declares Monsoon onset over Kerala "but" less rain seen over Kerala now. Rain not pushing into coast, 3:30pm.. 
Monsoon hits Kerala, confirms IMD ... 

" Less rain ahead for next 36hrs for Kerala "

Rainfall forecast
Due to 95A over Arabian sea, LESS rain forecast for Kerala, except along W-ghats till Morning of 7-Jun.. 
Due to W-central Bay circulation

HEAVY T showers expected over S,central,N-E Andhra, some into Telegana, S,S-E,central Karnataka in 36hrs
During next 36hrs, Some scattered T showers also for N,N-E,N-W Tamilnadu and over S,central Odisha.
Saturday afternoon... scattered T showers expected along W-ghats,W,S-W Maharastra, and N-W Karnataka ... 

June 05, 2015 at 10:25AM

9:40am, the monsoon push is happening. A view from Ghats near Kasaragod. #weather

from Instagram

June 05, 2015 at 07:34AM

RT @sounddappans: @weatherofindia its raining here in pune since early morning 4 ,not heavy showers though but drizzling continuously #iwm

June 05, 2015 at 03:57AM

4-Jun, 9pm - Raining since midnight in srinagar, almost 18 hours. Its Cold now. #iwm

June 05, 2015 at 03:56AM

4-Jun, 12:30pm, heavy rain somewhere near Kasaragod. It was raining till 6:30pm. #weather

from Instagram

June 05, 2015 at 03:51AM

4-Jun, 6:30pm - Heavy rain in Bangalore. #weather

from Instagram

June 05, 2015 at 03:44AM

4-Jun, 3pm - Tumkur heavy rain from SE. #weather

from Instagram