Tuesday, November 27, 2012

7:30pm, Satellite IR shows almost NO rain over entire India .. showers seen over Gulf Mannar .. http://ow.ly/i/1aP4a

Showers may creep into S.Tamilnadu coast from Gulf Mannar around early hours / morning of 28-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/1aP5Z

From tomorrow, showers / snow forecast only for Kashmir, Himachal and even for N.Punjab.. And NO rain for Peninsula.
Latest Sea surface temperature analysis suggests that its around 27 degC over S-W,West Bay.. this may have an effect on Bay LOW.

Here's the latest Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis ... http://ow.ly/i/1aONt

Note that a minimum SST temp. of 26.5 degC is required to sustain a Cyclone over Sea.
Central Maharastra Ant-cyclone is strong, sweeping dry winds from N-W India into N,W,central Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/1aOdI

IMD GFS expects the circulation over S-E Bay to move N-W into Bay and vanish over central Bay around 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOfI

But NOGAPS still persists with a D.Depression formation and movement towards Tamilnadu coast by 2-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOht

Whichever way the LOW moves in next 3 days.. most of Tamilnadu, #chennai will be DRY till 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1aOES 
Today the expected circulation has entered into Andaman seas.. http://ow.ly/i/1aN5s

Present circulation over S-E Bay extends upto upper levels .. http://ow.ly/i/1aN9I 
W.D is nearing Kashmir and N.Pakistan .. will reach W,S-W Kashmir by mid-morning of 28-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/1aN3F

During next 2 days, rain or snow forecast for Kashmir and Himachal due to W.D .. http://ow.ly/i/1aN80 
#chennai - 4pm, having a dry day with medium high cloud cover. No sunlight for most of the day today. Mild breeze from N-N-E. Temp. now 29 C