Sunday, November 02, 2014

Typhoon Nuri intensifies into "Super Typhoon"

The new Low in the Bay, BB-20, scheduled to form on 3rd November as mentioned in Vagaries and likely around the same predicted spot..West of The Andaman Islands.

Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula. 

Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said theat the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.

City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.

Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.
Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....
Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better  at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.

N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday. 
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)
Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning. 

from vagaries

How South Bay will shape up in next 3/4 days ??

An E-W elongated circulation is seen covering over S-W to S-E Bay ... 
During next 36hrs, the circulation over S-W-central Bay is expected to persist with a elongated nature.. 

Now we have 2 scenarios forecast for 2 models...
GFS expects a Depression to form over E Bay on 5-Nov... 
If GFS model comes out true, then the RAIN over Tamilnadu will vanish from Tuesday !!

NAVGEM model suggests the same like GFS for mid-week ... the present elongated circulation to tilt from N-E to S-W from E-Bay to S-W Bay.
After that NAVGEM suggests a depression to take shape over S-W-central Bay itself on 6-Nov... 

ECMWF model like GFS... suggests a E Bay depression on Thursday ... 
CMC / GEM and WRF model is going with NAVGEM model ... suggests a Depression along 10N over S-W-central Bay, 4/5-Nov 

During next 36hrs...

HEAVY T showers for S,S-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S,central Kerala.
For N,central,S-E coast Tamilnadu, Chennai ...

Moderate showers expected on today midnight into morning of Monday.. 
From Monday evening, less showers expected for N,central coast Tamilnadu and Chennai.

We'll monitor S-W-central Bay on 3,4-Nov.

Weather Instagram at November 02, 2014 at 10:50AM

#chennai - 10:49am, light rain now over Polichalur zone. Moderate rain inside city. #weather

from Instagram