Tuesday, October 30, 2012

11pm, cyclone Nilam has strengthened and having a good core.. looks serious and slowly drifting N-W.. http://ow.ly/i/14Hr0

7:30pm, Cyclone Nilam, Pressure has deepened in last 2 hrs to 989mb and wind speed is now upto 80km/hr... http://ow.ly/i/14EeT 
More showers approaching Central Tamilnadu coast.. #chennai, N.Tamilnadu coast to have lull for next 3 / 4hrs.
Hurricane Sandy "Dawn to Dusk" on 29-Oct .. http://youtu.be/t9XAAw5nFes

Cyclone Nilam - Small drift seen towards N-W in past 6hrs

5:30pm, Latest Satellite IR image .. shows that the Core is intact and Heavy convective activity seen again.
Pressure & Wind speed remains the same.
JTWC continues to predict a Central/North Tamilnadu landfall on evening of 31-Oct.
JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST
----------------------------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 9.3N 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 300357Z 
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED 
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE AREA OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI 
ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A 
LARGE SPREAD BUT ALL CONTINUALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST IS 
POSITIONED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 
36 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 48 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. LOW 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z 
IS 18 FEET.

RT @shaambalaji: RT @ReutersIndia: Cyclone warning halts port operations in Chennai http://t.co/US3JDg79 
RT @onemangoadmi: Rains reduced but this is the condition in #tiruvottiyur @chennaiweather @weatherofindia http://t.co/frcSXjsn (5:24pm)
RT @rangats: Heavy rains started again @weatherofindia koyambedu area #Chennai (3:47pm)

Cyclone Nilam - 3:30pm, persists and NO sign of movement.

Here's the latest Satellite Visible shot at 3:30pm IST.
Pressure & Wind situation remains the same.
NO sign of movement for the past 6hrs.
Heavy convective activity seen around the core and over N,N-W quadrant of the Cyclone.

Present continuing showers along N.Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is due to the Northern outer Band of Cyclone .. Core is around 500 km away

Rainfall till 8:30am today, VEDARANYAM = 120.4mm, PUDUCHERRY = 70.9mm, NAGAPATTINAM = 82.7mm, KARAIKAL = 99.4mm, Chennai AP = 11.7mm.
Position of Cyclone Nilam as of 8:30am is ... http://ow.ly/i/14Ab6 

Now its Cyclone Nilam - Showing signs of moving N-W

1pm, Latest satellite visible shot shows that the core is still near N-E Srilanka coast.
Now it's named as Cyclone Nilam.
Pressure  ::  993mb
Wind  ::   Upto 75 km/hr
IMD warning at 11am IST
---------------------------------------------

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified
into Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’.It lay centred at  0830 hours IST of today, the 30

th
 October 2012 near latitude 
9.0
0
N  and  longitude  82.0
0
E,  about  500  km  south-southeast  of  Chennai  and  100  km  east-northeast  of 
Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system would move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining 
south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31
st 
 October, 2012 afternoon/evening.



NOGAPS model predicts a central & North Tamilnadu coast landfall on evening of 31-Oct

RT @iamkarthikd: RT @crvgalatta: Cyclone #nilam creates mega traffic jam in #chennai  http://t.co/cPiEtGUw 

"02B" - Almost a Cyclone to be named !

9am, Latest Satellite visible shot..
Situated around 500km S-E of Chennai
Pressure ::  993mb
Wind  ::   upto 75 km/hr
JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
---------------------------------------------
JTWC has relocated the present location of Cyclone / Deep depression.
And expects it to move N-W towards central & North Tamilnadu coast in next 24hrs.

IMD warning at 9am IST
--------------------------------------------
Position of Deep Depression / Cyclone as by IMD at 5:30am IST
Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at
0530 hours IST of today, the 30th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.0
0N and longitude 82.00E, about 500 km south-southeast of Chennai and 100 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (SriLanka). The system would intensify further into a  cyclonic storm and move northwestwards for some moretime and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31st October, 2012 afternoon/evening.
Cyclone "02B" is not yet named as "Nilam" .. some news agencies are reporting it as Cyclone Nilam
@sarakumar1 >> Cyclone is still around N-N-E of Srilanka and it's expected to move N-W from now on according to most models.
#chennai - 9:25am, steady heavy rain continues even now... #cyclone
RT @rangats: Heavy rains in chennai started it looks like evening 7.40 - @weatherofindia koyambedu area

#chennai - 7:58am, Raining steady and becoming heavy now over Polichalur Zone.
RT @shivakumar: #chennairains schools close today due to rain @weatherofindia

Schools & Colleges along central & North Tamilnadu coast to remain closed today !

Cyclone "02B" - Will be named as Nilam

6:30am, Here's the latest Satellite visible shot of the System.
Position  ::  8.8N-83.4E (still near N-E Srilanka)
Pressure ::  993mb
Wind  ::   around 75 km/hr

JTWC warning at 2:30am IST
-------------------------------------------
Predicts that the system will start to move N-W by morning and cross S-E,central Tamilnadu coast on noon of 31-Oct.