Monday, June 09, 2014

Posted Monday Night 9th June:

Arabian Sea Low: Well marked, and soon to be a depression, AS-1 has tracked in a hap hazard manner, but overall has moved parallel to the West Coast in the last 48 hrs. 

The red line in the image shows the last 48 hrs track, and stationed almost off the Goa coast now, it has reached vagaries' point of turn now. We had estimated the system to move along the coast till Goa, and turn West thereafter.

My worry is, being situated at 13.6N and 68E, it is within our "de marked" line of 65E, so, now AS-1 at 996 mb, the worry is about the monsoon clouds getting "sucked in" the system. We must hope for and anticipate a quick movement away from the coast, Westwards.
As-1 quick movement Westwards will help in fast organising of the Monsoon favourite off shore coast.
 From vagaries
Belgaum - 6pm, "Drizzling now".
"More rain ahead tomorrow"

Delhi records 47.8 C

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 4.40pm, Dark Passing clouds with heavy wind..,

#Chennai - ALL thru the day had heavy cloud cover with light rain at some places after 10am till now.
#Chennai - 6:30pm, HEAVY T-showers seen over N-W at around 30 to 200km from city ... 
Rain may push in after 8pm.

#Chennai - RADAR - Rainfall accumulation shows yesterday's heavy rain over S,S-W,W suburbs of city ... 
#Chennai - Rainfall till 8:30am today...
Nungambakkam = 36.2mm
Airport = 51.8mm
IWM station Polichalur = 78.3mm

6:10pm, a weather photo from somewhere near Thiruchirapalli, Tamilnadu ... "cloudy skies" ... 

Super #HOT India on 8-Jun ...
Amristar = 47 C
Ganganagar = 48 C
Bikaner = 47 C
Agra = 46.7 C
Jaipur = 47 C
Gwalior = 46.1 C

Satna = 47.6 C

#Delhi - 8-Jun, "national capital recorded 47.8 degree Celsius highest in 62 years" ... 
A Wrapper for our Vagaries Blog.....Vagaries' App now on Google Play Store.

Weather Instagram at June 09, 2014 at 02:33PM

#chennai - today morning photo. 2:10pm, cloudy and temp at 29C. #weather

from Instagram

95A and Monsoon !! Heavy rain expected for Karnataka coast, Goa

Previous report about 95A and Monsoon, updated on 8-Jun-2014 can be read here ...

As of 11:30am, 95A is still a well marked LOW lying over E-central Arabian sea.
Present position is 12.9N and 67E.
Pressure is around 1000mb as per GFS and 1004mb as per US NAVY analysis.

11:30am, Satellite visible shows ... Heavy convective activity along its W,S,S-W,S-E quadrants.
Satellite also shows the T shower activity over W Bay along N Tamilnadu coast and Andhra coast.
Reduced Rainfall activity over Kerala is also observed.

Forecast for 95A and Monsoon
GFS predicts that during next 48hrs, "95A" will intensify to Deep Depression and move North or N-N-W upto 19 / 20N.
On 11-Jun, after reaching 19N the system is expected to travel West towards Oman coast.
95A is expected to make landfall along Oman coast as Cyclone on 13/14-Jun.

During next 24hrs, Monsoon is expected to push into Karnataka coast and #Goa as well, but most of moisture will be encircling the LOW pressure system 95A.
From today/tomorrow #Monsoon will be weak along Karnataka, Kerala coast and will be till 95A exhausts itself over Oman coast on 14-Jun.

#Chennai - upper level wind profile suggests that S-W Monsoon current is over city from last evening. 
And from now on, evening T-showers will develop over N-E Tamilnadu and travel into Sea (Bay) crossing Chennai city.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs 

Today, till midnight, Showers expected to persist along Kerala, Karnataka coast.
Today, T showers expected along W,S-W,S,S-central Maharastra, S,central Karnataka, S,central Andhra.
Late evening or Midnight T showers again possible over N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai.
Late evening T shower possible over #Bangalore as well.

On 10-Jun, Due to 95A and Monsoon, HEAVY rain expected along Karnataka coast and #Goa.
Afternoon of 10-Jun can witness T showers over W Maharastra and an Odd one may pop into #Mumbai as well.
By evening, late evening - T showers expected over central,E Gujarat, central Maharastra, S,S-central Karnataka, S,central,N-E Andhra and into N,N-E Tamilnadu.

On the eastern front, scattered T showers to continue over N-E states of India, Sikkim, N Bengal and over N,N-E Bihar on today, 10-Jun.
On 10-Jun, T showers expected along S-W Bengal and E Jharkhand.
#Chennai - Early hour Thunder squall and heavy rainfall.
IWM weather station at Polichalur records 78.3mm upto 8:30am today.

#Chennai - 9:30am, Still some Thunder cells are alive over W,W-N-W zones near to city ... 
More on this coming up...