Sunday, October 12, 2014

Posted Sunday Night:
Nagpur and Raipur can get thunder showers on Monday. Cloudy and cooler, the showers may accumulate around 25 mms in the day.Rains decreasing from Tuesday.

A WD approaching from the West will precipitate rains and snow in Northern Pakistan and in Kashmir from Sunday Night. Monday will see rains in Northern Pakistan and North Indian Hill States.
Light rains likely in Punjab/Haryana.
Delhi gets showers in some parts from 13th night or 14th.

Caution: The WD moves with a trough in the 30N , and could inter act with Hudhud (as a Depression or Well Marked Low). Hence, heavy falls likely in Utterakhand and Western Nepal on 14th. Landslides likely in the region.

From Vagaries

wind reversal HUDHUD

HUDHUD imposed over Google Earth gives picture of eye over Vizagapatinam.  The wind reversal will take place soon. Perhaps now the wind will be calm.

HudHud - What next ? N-E Monsoon for Tamilnadu on 15/16-Oct ??


2:30pm, HEAVY rain and HIGH winds over most of N-E Andhra, Odisha and slowly into S Chatisgarh.


In next 24hrs, the Cyclone is expected to degrade to a Depression and continue to move North, N-N-W.
The system is expected to travel across Chatisgarh, E Madhyapradesh and push into S,S-W,central Uttarpradesh by 14-Oct.

Meanwhile, N-E monsoon current (easterlies) is expected to push into Bay and even reach Tamilnadu coast on 15/16-Oct-2014 !

HudHud - some more Instagrams !


HudHud - Crosses thru Visakapatnam / Vizag and now inland !



12:30pm, Visible shot reveals that HudHud's eye is still intact even over land !

Here are some Instagrams from Vizag, N-E Andhra and Odisha !


Cyclone Hudhud making Landfall over Visakahpatnam




The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'HUDHUD' over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a
speed of about 15 kmph during the last 6 hours and  lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 12th October 2014 near
Lat.17.2°N and Long 84.2°E, about 100 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 240 km south­southwest of Gopalpur.   The   system   would   move   northwestwards   and   cross   north   Andhra   Pradesh   coast   close   to
Visakhapatnam around noon of today 12th October 2014
HudHud - 10:30am, EYE of cyclone is almost over Visakapatnam ... http://ow.ly/i/7c1OX ...  http://ow.ly/i/7c1P8

HUDHUD now closing Vizag

 [I] What wind indicates now :
12102014 / 0310 to 0355 hrs UTC

  • The Kolkatta wind is SEly and will become southerly sometimes from now. This indicates the eye is west of Kolkatta longitude.
  • The Visakapatinam wind is NEly and speed is about 90kts and sometimes from now winds will become EASTERLY.  [That is crossing]
  • The Machilipattinam winds are NWly and and will become NORTHERLY sometime from now indicates that system is EAST of Machipattinam longitude .
  • The HWSR at Visakapattinam is reporting surface wind NEly and gusting to Easterly with 80 kts.
  1.  The system is within 60km range of Vizag [S/SE]
  2. There is eastern ghats range at Vizag and moisture ladden winds  blowing over eastern ghats will rise orographically and  rainfall will be extremely heavy [>25.0cm] in those areas.


HudHud - 7am, Landfall is happening !



7am, HudHud is crossing inland "landfall is happening" thru N-E Andhra coast near Visakapatnam.
Eye of cyclone is around 90km S-E from Visakapatnam.
Eye will reach Visakapatnam in next 2/ 3 hrs.
"Heavy rainfall and high winds witnessed in Visakapatnam"

Present pressure is around 931mb and winds will reach up to 200 kmph.
Wind profile over Visakapatnam suggests "HIGH speed winds" at all levels from ground to 5.4km above sea level.

Cyclone HUDHUD , intensifying rapidly , closing on landfall



JTWC latest Bulletin : -warning - 16th 

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED WHILE THE 
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH A 
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEFINED BANDING. RADAR IMAGERY 
FROM VISAKHAPATNAM SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND 
REVEALS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON 
THE RADAR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE 
UNCHANGED STRUCTURE. TC 03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE 
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-
ORIENT AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA.TC 
03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER 
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 115 KNOTS. 
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE 
NEAR TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE FORECAST SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS