Sunday, December 02, 2012

Peculiar movement

02 Dec 2012 / 1200 UTC imagery

[1] The cloud mass is drifting in South-SWly direction to enter into Delta and adjoining districts to night [02.12.2012] and may give rainfall.

[2] It is peculiar that the drift is in South-SWly direction.

#chennai - 8pm, Strong showers seen around 150km East,S-E and E-N-E from city.. and showers slowly nearing N,central Tamilnadu coast. 
Next W.D is expected to be weak and will reach W.Kashmir by 6/7-Dec.
On 4-Dec, a strong anti-cyclone is expected to move into N.Bay .. By 5-Dec, this'll system will clear all the moisture pushed in by "99B".

Showers from "99B" can be expected along Tamilnadu, S.Andhra coast till evening of 5-Dec.! Interior Tamilnadu may get rain till 6-Dec.

Due to this "99B", some showers may push into #Bangalore, S,S-central Karnataka, S,S-central Andhra as well till 5-Dec.

 On Sunday evening, BB-12,  the Bay Low is located at 11N and 85E, with pressure at 1006 mb. Core winds are less than 20 knts, but outer NE winds along North TN coast likely to be 25 knts bt Monday.
System will track West, and maybe deepen to 1004 mb, before crossing North TN coast on Monday evening.
Chennai gets its expected showers from Monday thru Tuesday. Rain slips into Bangalore from Monday evening.

Around 4th/5th December, the pulse enters the Arabian Sea off Kerala. It will sustain as a low at around 1006 mb off Kerala. System will move a bit North upto South Karnatak/Kerala coast on the 5th and dissolve. 
Rest details on
Now almost all models suggest that "99B" will drift S-W towards N.Srilanka and S-E Tamilnadu coast in next 36hrs .. 

"99B" - moved West, now having good convective activity

3pm, "99B" - moved West, now having good convective activity.
Latest visible satellite shot, reveals good convective activity around the center, and seen nearing central Tamilnadu coast. 
Showers expected to reach central, North Tamilnadu coast, Chennai and even S.Andhra coast around early hours OR by morning of 3-Dec.

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"99B" - Nearing Tamilnadu coast with less convective activity

"99B" - Nearing Tamilnadu coast with less convective activity.
Latest analysis show that the circulation persists over S-Central Bay and it has drifted W-S-W.
Pressure still around 1004mb.

12:30pm, Satellite IR shows very less convective activity. And activity seen along its N, N-W quadrant.
COLA model suggests a more S-W drift for the circulation and push into N.Srilanka and Central,S-E Tamilnadu coast in next 48hrs.
Scattered sharp showers expected along central,N.Tamilnadu coast and S.Andhra coast from morning of 3-Dec (Tomorrow). Showers are expected to continue for next 2 / 3 days along coast and will push into Interior,S. Tamilnadu as well.
#chennai - records a low of 21.2 deg C today.. Now 1pm its cloudy with medium and low clouds. Chance of a drizzle!