#chennai and N.coast Tamilnadu can expect showers from East,S-E .. during early hrs and morning of tomorrow !

RT @jainprav: @ndtv many yrs old tree fell in A. P RD CHOOLAI CHENNAI http://t.co/pVSFXv4T

RT @ians_india: Cyclone Nilam effect: Ship runs aground in Chennai  

Cyclone Nilam - Still raging over N.Tamilnadu and poised to enter S.Karnataka

10pm, Cyclone has slightly weakened and now over North of Vellore.
Still the system packs lots of winds & Rain as the pressure is around 989mb.
The system is expected to rage all night long and enter into S.Karnataka by early morning. And by afternoon tomorrow it's expected to reach W.Karnataka. By that time it'll be a Depression or a LOW.
Showers seen along central, N-E Andhra coast... but till now NO rain in #chennai zone.

RT @Alex_Pandian: It is still raining heavily 8.30pm (non stop since afternoon) Bangalore #Cyclone Nilam @weatherofindia

Cyclone nilam .. JTWC plots the system is inland around 65km S-S-W of Chennai at 5:30pm..  http://ow.ly/i/14SVF

Chennai - 7:05pm still wind gusts persist and NO rain!

@brubalaas - cyclone crossed inland and struck or (moving slowly) along coast and showing less signs of weakening.

RT @Alex_Pandian: Heavy rains in #Bangalore for past fewhours #Cyclone Nilam @weatherofindia 6:45pm

Cyclone Nilam - 6:30pm, struck along Mahabalipuram coast and showing no sign of weakening.

Cyclone Nilam - At around 4:45pm, Made landfall between Mahabalipuram & Pondicherry coast... http://ow.ly/eUkgS 

Cyclone Nilam - Made landfall between Mahabalipuram & Pondicherry coast

At 4:45pm, Cyclone Nilam - Made landfall between Mahabalipuram & Pondicherry coast.
Visible satellite shot shows almost FULL core is moving inland.
Heavy showers seen along center of the core cloud mass.
Now the weakening will start.
#chennai - Gradually the wind speed will go down from now.
Chennai will receive rains towards midnight and into early morning.

5pm, Cyclone Nilam is now making landfall near Kalpakkam and Mahabalipuram coast.

Chennai - 5:05pm, high winds continue surprisingly NO rain for the past 3hrs

Cyclone Nilam - No landfall yet, now N-E of Pondicherry

4pm, Cyclone Nilam - No landfall yet, now aound 75km N-E of Pondicherry.
Still maintaining same pressure, core cloud mass and winds.
Now very near to coast.
Nearing Mahabalipuram and Kalpakkam coast.

3:15pm, RADAR image suggests that landfall is happening along Pondicherry coast ... http://ow.ly/i/14Q54 

RT @jai_shankarr: @weatherofindia At 2.00 pm #cuddalore , wind picking up speed can feel what #thane does a year back . Cyclone nilam

RT @aasheerv: @weatherofindia Heavy Winds now at Puducherry (2:04pm)

RT @senthilvijay: Tree is falling near #theradi #Tiruvottiyur #Chennai #CycloneNilam @weatherofindia http://t.co/f1P9zzBT (3:05pm)

Cyclone Nilam - Landfall expected in another 1hr

2:30pm, Latest satellite IR.. shows the massive cloud mass of Nilam.
Landfall expected in another 1hr North of Pondicherry

IMD warning at 2pm
---------------------------------

Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’ over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts—Red Message
The Cyclonic Storm ‘NILAM’, moved north-northwestwards during past six hours and lay centred at

1130 hours IST of today, the 31

st

 October 2012 near latitude 11.5

0

N and longitude 81.0

0

E, about 180 km 

south-southeast  of  Chennai  and  140  km  east-southeast  of  Cuddalore.  The  system  would  move 

northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu & adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast close to Chennai by 31

st 

October, 2012 evening.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm

--------------------------------------

1pm, FNMOC plot suggests the position (12.0,81.1) is parallel to Pondicherry.. but going by visible sat.pic it shows it's S-E of Pondicherry

Cyclone Nilam - 1pm, Striking distance from Cuddalore, Pondicherry

1pm, Visible satellite shot shows that the cloud mass around core is now over N-Central Tamilnadu coast.
It's now at a Striking distance from Cuddalore, Pondicherry.
More importantly it has further intensified ... now the 
Pressure  :::  982mb
Wind  ::  100 km/hr
Warning for people living in these zones !

RT @joesat: #nilam Tree uprooted in Teachers colony adayar, #chennai while driving by . Effects of wind gusts @weatherofindia 

RT @joesat: #nilam Tree uprooted in Teachers colony adayar, #chennai while driving by . Effects of wind gusts @weatherofindia 

12:30pm, Cyclone Nilam is closing in on Cuddalore & Pondicherry .. here's the latest visible satellite pic... http://ow.ly/i/14P2h 

Warning :: Heavy rain and High winds coming up for Cuddalore & Pondicherry ... Take care !

#chennai - 12:48pm, showers taking a break but winds are strong.. Atmosphere Pressure is dropping over city ! Sign of Cyclone closing in!

RT @imdaniel48: @weatherofindia Kancheepuram, SRM UNIVERSITY, Rain seems to have stopped, but looks like some heavy rain this after noon.

RT @m_krishna: @weatherofindia Overcast skies in Mylapore #Chennai... http://t.co/b5ml86DW (12:42pm)

RT @deepak_eshwar: @weatherofindia #royapettah #chennai #cyclonenilam http://t.co/1lbSaZPQ (12:25pm)

Till 8:30am today, Vedaranyam records 135 mm of Rainfall.

@sarakumar1 >> #chennai - Rainfall till 8:30am today, Nungambakkam = 93.4mm and Airport = 79.8mm

RT @fabwrite: RT @ibnlive: #Nilam Control room helpline numbers in Tamil Nadu:  
Cuddalore 1077 
Chennai 1913. 

12pm, Cyclone is nearing Pondicherry, Cuddalore coast .. latest Sat. visible shows heavy rain nearing this zone.. http://ow.ly/i/14OQY 

RT @ranganaathan: RT @sridharkswamy: The view from my office seat - #chennaicyclone http://t.co/sQP6Z0qu @weatherofindia 11am

RT @ranganaathan: Heavy winds blowing in T-Nagar Chennai now @weatherofindia (12pm)

RT @joesat: #nilam #palavakkam Gusts picked up speed with intermittent drizzle. Looks like the lull before the actual thing hits (11:55am)

Cyclone Nilam - Core is carrying lots of Rain & wind. towards Cuddalore, Pondicherry

11am, Latest satellite visible shot reveals the core.
Pressure & Wind speed remains the same for the past 3hrs.
Position at 8:30am is almost parallel to Karaikal and tracking N-W towards Cuddalore & Pondicherry. See map below...

IMD warning at 10:30am IST

------------------------------------------------------

Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’ over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu, 

Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts—Red Message

The Cyclonic Storm ‘NILAM’, moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the

31

st

  October 2012 near latitude 11.0

0

N and longitude 81.0

0

E, about 260 km south-southeast of Chennai and 

300 km north of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system would intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and 

move  northwestwards  and  cross  north  Tamil  Nadu  &  adjoining  south  Andhra  Pradesh coast  between 

Puducherry and Nellore, close to Chennai by 31

st

 October, 2012 evening.

9:35am, Cyclone has not entered into IMD chennai's Radar range of upto 250km... http://ow.ly/i/14Oe5 

@jai_shankarr >> Cyclone Nilam seems to be heading your way.. #Cuddalore #Pondicherry .Please provide hourly updates if you live there!

RT @mv_bn: No rains and wind is normal to moderate in @Sholinganallur @medavakkam -9.50 AM.Will try to gv hourly updates Cyclone Nilam

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 9.40am, Continuous drizzling since last night, overcast sky and intermittent showers.

RT @senthilvijay: Very disappointing to see the sun is peaking through clouds at #ambattur #chennai @weatherofindia (9:35am)

RT @jai_shankarr: Time 9.00 #Cuddalore - Slight drizzle , but slowly can feel the increase in speed of wind .. Its getting closer #Nilam 

RT @alex_pandian: Drizzling since night; raining heavily now - South Bangalore @weatherofindia #cycloneNilam (8:34am)

Cyclone Nilam - Moving N-W towards Cuddalore, Pondicherry

Cyclone Nilam, Moving N-W towards Cuddalore, Pondicherry.
9:30am, Satellite visible shot shows .. it has moved N-W and still maintaining a strong core.
Pressure  ::  985mb
Wind  ::  upto 90km/hr
Position  ::  See the map image below.

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST

----------------------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 10.6N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE 
MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHICH IS IN 
LINE WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE 
LLCC REMAINS ON A STEADY TRACK AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR IS CREATING 
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM, AND IS ALSO LEADING TO 
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOT). THE 
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE 
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 
SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF INDIA AND WEAKENING IN 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING LAND INTERACTION. THERE 
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LLCC COULD 
APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA IN LATER TAUS, BUT THERE DOES 
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ARABIAN SEA. 
BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THERE 
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 17 FEET.

IMD warning at 7:30am IST

-------------------------------------------

Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’ over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts—Orange Message
The Cyclonic Storm ‘NILAM’, moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the
31th October 2012 near latitude 10.50N and longitude 81.50E, about 320 km south-southeast of Chennai and 220 km north of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system would move north-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu & adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore, near Chennai by 31stOctober, 2012 evening.

#chennai - moderate showers to continue till noon with wind gusts then and there.

#chennai - #cyclone .. After 12pm, High winds and Heavy rains are expected if Cyclone persists with predicted direction.

RT @pmichennai: @weatherofindia 6:00 am Steady drizzle @ #palavakkam #chennai. planning hourly updates thru the day until #Nilam landfall

RT @thisismmk: @weatherofindia 5.45 am. It has started to drizzle again @ Velachery #chennai

Cyclone "Nilam" - drifting N-W and intensifying !

6:30am, Latest satellite IR shows a huge core and showing signs of intensifying even more.
Position  ::   As of 2:30am IST (Map image below)
Pressure  ::   985mb
Wind   ::    upto 90 km/hr
WARNING :: High winds and Heavy rain ahead along central, North Tamilnadu coast and into South Andhra coast from noon.

JTWC warning at 2:30am IST

-------------------------------------------------

IMD warning at 5am IST

-----------------------------------------

Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’ over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts—Orange Message
The Cyclonic Storm ‘NILAM’, remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0230 hours IST of
today, the 30th October 2012 near latitude 10.00N and longitude 82.00E, about 400 km south-southeast of
Chennai  and  180  km  north-northeast  of  Trincomalee  (Sri  Lanka).  The  system  would  move  northnorthwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu & adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore, near Chennai by 31st October, 2012 evening.

Chennai - 4:47am, experiencing sharp showers with high winds now

11:30pm, JTWC warning says that Nilam has moved N-W and expects a south of Chennai hit by evening today.. http://ow.ly/i/14KzX

"NILAM" now

[1] "NILAM" at 15Z/301012 was at 9.4 N / 81.9 E i.e exactly 217 km East of Savakacheri near Jafnna, in Srilanka .

[2] At 18Z it moved slightly to North.

[3] CIMSS indicates the shift of low wind shear location to further north at about  13 Deg N

11pm, cyclone Nilam has strengthened and having a good core.. looks serious and slowly drifting N-W.. http://ow.ly/i/14Hr0

7:30pm, Cyclone Nilam, Pressure has deepened in last 2 hrs to 989mb and wind speed is now upto 80km/hr... http://ow.ly/i/14EeT 

More showers approaching Central Tamilnadu coast.. #chennai, N.Tamilnadu coast to have lull for next 3 / 4hrs.

Hurricane Sandy "Dawn to Dusk" on 29-Oct .. http://youtu.be/t9XAAw5nFes

Cyclone Nilam - Small drift seen towards N-W in past 6hrs

5:30pm, Latest Satellite IR image .. shows that the Core is intact and Heavy convective activity seen again.
Pressure & Wind speed remains the same.
JTWC continues to predict a Central/North Tamilnadu landfall on evening of 31-Oct.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST

----------------------------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 9.3N 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 300357Z 
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED 
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE AREA OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI 
ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A 
LARGE SPREAD BUT ALL CONTINUALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST IS 
POSITIONED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 
36 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 48 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. LOW 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z 
IS 18 FEET.

RT @shaambalaji: RT @ReutersIndia: Cyclone warning halts port operations in Chennai http://t.co/US3JDg79 

RT @onemangoadmi: Rains reduced but this is the condition in #tiruvottiyur @chennaiweather @weatherofindia http://t.co/frcSXjsn (5:24pm)

RT @rangats: Heavy rains started again @weatherofindia koyambedu area #Chennai (3:47pm)

Cyclone Nilam - 3:30pm, persists and NO sign of movement.

Here's the latest Satellite Visible shot at 3:30pm IST.

Pressure & Wind situation remains the same.

NO sign of movement for the past 6hrs.

Heavy convective activity seen around the core and over N,N-W quadrant of the Cyclone.

Present continuing showers along N.Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is due to the Northern outer Band of Cyclone .. Core is around 500 km away

Rainfall till 8:30am today, VEDARANYAM = 120.4mm, PUDUCHERRY = 70.9mm, NAGAPATTINAM = 82.7mm, KARAIKAL = 99.4mm, Chennai AP = 11.7mm.

Position of Cyclone Nilam as of 8:30am is ... http://ow.ly/i/14Ab6 

Now its Cyclone Nilam - Showing signs of moving N-W

1pm, Latest satellite visible shot shows that the core is still near N-E Srilanka coast.
Now it's named as Cyclone Nilam.
Pressure  ::  993mb
Wind  ::   Upto 75 km/hr

IMD warning at 11am IST

---------------------------------------------

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified

into Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’.It lay centred at  0830 hours IST of today, the 30

th

 October 2012 near latitude 

9.0

0

N  and  longitude  82.0

0

E,  about  500  km  south-southeast  of  Chennai  and  100  km  east-northeast  of 

Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system would move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining 

south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31

st 

 October, 2012 afternoon/evening.

NOGAPS model predicts a central & North Tamilnadu coast landfall on evening of 31-Oct

RT @iamkarthikd: RT @crvgalatta: Cyclone #nilam creates mega traffic jam in #chennai  http://t.co/cPiEtGUw 

"02B" - Almost a Cyclone to be named !

9am, Latest Satellite visible shot..
Situated around 500km S-E of Chennai
Pressure ::  993mb
Wind  ::   upto 75 km/hr

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST

---------------------------------------------

JTWC has relocated the present location of Cyclone / Deep depression.
And expects it to move N-W towards central & North Tamilnadu coast in next 24hrs.

IMD warning at 9am IST

--------------------------------------------

Position of Deep Depression / Cyclone as by IMD at 5:30am IST

Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu,

Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at

0530 hours IST of today, the 30th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.0

0N and longitude 82.00E, about 500 km south-southeast of Chennai and 100 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (SriLanka). The system would intensify further into a  cyclonic storm and move northwestwards for some moretime and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31st October, 2012 afternoon/evening.

Cyclone "02B" is not yet named as "Nilam" .. some news agencies are reporting it as Cyclone Nilam

@sarakumar1 >> Cyclone is still around N-N-E of Srilanka and it's expected to move N-W from now on according to most models.

#chennai - 9:25am, steady heavy rain continues even now... #cyclone

RT @rangats: Heavy rains in chennai started it looks like evening 7.40 - @weatherofindia koyambedu area

#chennai - 7:58am, Raining steady and becoming heavy now over Polichalur Zone.

RT @shivakumar: #chennairains schools close today due to rain @weatherofindia

Schools & Colleges along central & North Tamilnadu coast to remain closed today !

Cyclone "02B" - Will be named as Nilam

6:30am, Here's the latest Satellite visible shot of the System.
Position  ::  8.8N-83.4E (still near N-E Srilanka)
Pressure ::  993mb
Wind  ::   around 75 km/hr

JTWC warning at 2:30am IST

-------------------------------------------

Predicts that the system will start to move N-W by morning and cross S-E,central Tamilnadu coast on noon of 31-Oct.

11pm, 02B is almost having an eye.. now JTWC also predicts a central Tamilnadu landfall on 31st.. http://ow.ly/i/14sig

93 west & 02 B (NRLMRY)

[1] 93 west & 02 B are one and the same.  It has slightly drifted south westward and lay centered 100km E-NE (056 Degree) of Trincomalee.

[2] Clouds are seen packed in SW sector only.

[3] Core wind speed are yet to attain cyclonic speed

[4] Sri Lankan weather office animates it to cross near Nagapattinam / Karaikal  below Parengipettai

8:45pm, Showers pushing into S-E,central Tamilnadu coast now.!

IMD's latest warning at 7:30pm states that "02B" will move N-W from the present position .. here's the present position http://ow.ly/i/14pwj 

"93W" is now "02B" - Almost a Cyclone now!

"93W" is now "02B" - Almost a Cyclone now!
If this continues to strengthen then it'll be named as "Nilam" by morning of 30-Oct.

Position  ::  8.8N , 82E
Pressure  ::  996mb
Winds  ::  65 km/hr

Here's the latest 6:30pm Satellite IR image.

#chennai - showers approaching N.Tamilnadu coast , chennai city from S-E ... http://ow.ly/i/14nCN

Moderate showers & Gusts forecast for N.Tamilnadu coast & #Chennai till tomorrow morning !

While widespread and heavy rains with high winds forecast for central,S-E Tamilnadu coast till tomorrow morning.

Heavy rains are possible only after tomorrow noon along N.Tamilnadu coast & #Chennai ..  http://ow.ly/i/14nGd 

"93W" - NOGAPS favors a Central Tamilnadu coast landfall

Latest NOGAPS model also suggests a N-W movement from now on and make landfall along central Tamilnadu coast on afternoon of 31-Oct.

COLA model also suggests a Central Tamilnadu coast landfall on noon of 31-Oct.

"93W" - Depression is almost over N-N-E Srilanka

4:30pm, Visible satellite shows HUGE T.showers along N-N-E Srilanka
Pressure is still around 1000mb and NO weakening seen.

And here's the latest 6pm, Satellite IR image.

Heavy rain along N,N-E Srilanka continues !

Winds at Upper levels (200hpa Jet or the steering winds) is favoring a West and N-W movement.

3pm, Depression over Bay "93W" is nearing N,N-E Srilanka.. Color satellite IR image attached here .. http://ow.ly/i/14lP1 

Heavy rain with wind to start along S-E,central, North Tamilnadu coast & #chennai from early hrs / morning of 30-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/14lpj 

#chennai - 2:10pm, High cloud cover continues (due to the outer band of Depression). Wind gusts continue !

"93W" - Intensifying into a Deep Depression and drifting West

1pm, Slow moving Depression now and Showing signs of intensifying into a Deep Depression in next 6hrs.
May become as a Number tropical storm by Midnight today.
Here's the latest Satellite IR image at 1pm

IMD model suggests a central & North Tamilnadu coast hit on 31-Oct.

NOGAPS model suggests a hit around S-E & Central Tamilnadu coast on afternoon of 31-Oct.

IMD warning at 11:30am IST
------------------------------------------------

Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at
0830 hrs IST of today, the 29

th

 October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.5

0

N and 

longitude  83.5

0

E,  about  530  km  southeast  of  Chennai  (Tamilnadu)  and  270  km  northeast  of 

Trincomalee  (Srilanka).  The  system  would  intensify  further  into  a  cyclonic  storm  and  move 

westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and 

adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31

st

 October, 2012 

evening/night.

JTWC warning at 9am IST

--------------------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 84.7E TO 11.1N 79.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290300Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 83.7E.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 
84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHEAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 282354Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE 
LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE 
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL 
MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM TO 
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 06-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING 
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

RT @toichennainews: Wet week ahead as clouds move towards Chennai http://t.co/sZtmlI8W

#chennai - Cloudy with high cloud cover now 8:20am, Showers expected after 12pm. Can expect wind gusts then and there thru the day! 

"93W" is now a Depression.. Expected to move West

7:30am, "93W" is now a Depression.
Latest position ...
Position  ::  9.6N , 83.7E
Wind   ::    Around 45 km/hr
Pressure ::  1000mb.
Here's the latest visible satellite pic...

Almost NO movement for the past 6hrs, but good consolidation seen. Heavy convective activity seen all around the core.

IMD warning at 2am IST

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Sub:  Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal:
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs
IST of today, the 28th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.5N and longitude
84.5E, about 600 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 350 km east-northeast of Trincomalee
(Srilanka). The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently
into a marginal cyclonic storm. The system would move westwards towards north Sri Lanka and
Tamil Nadu coast.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy
rainfall would commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from today onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph would commence along and off north Tamil Nadu
and Puducherry coasts from today i.e 29th
 October 2012 afternoon onwards. Sea condition will be
rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from that period.
Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts, who are out at sea are advised to return
to the coast.
The system is under constant surveillance.


JTWC warning at 11:30pm, 28-Oct-2012
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A SLIGHTLY 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD 
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

The LOPAR and the Cloud mass in BoB

 

To day [28 Oct 2012 / 1500 hrs GMT] the cloud mass over the  LOPAR or WML is spread over Northern parts of Srilanka to Rameswaram. Located roughly 225km East of Rameswaram.  [9.1 Deg N / 81.1 Deg E].  Rainfall may be moderate 2-4cm in the coast between Kodiyakarai in the North and Thoothukudi in the south. Earlier cloud mass was located East of Northern Srilanka and cloud mass passed through Northern Srilanka and spreads over Mannar Bay.

S.Arabian sea circulation "96A" persists .. expected to become a Depression on 31-Oct and move N-W.. http://ow.ly/i/14eEy

Next moderate W.D will reach W.Kashmir on 31-Oct..! 

Going by latest conditions.. COLA's prediction of LOW hitting central Tamilnadu coast may come true on 30-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/14eDW 

@sashank98 >> As per latest model data. #chennai is expected to get heavy rain on 30,31-Oct.

@im_vicky7 >> #chennai will get showers tomorrow , Not heavy ! Rainfall will be heavy on 30-Oct as per the latest available data.

Bay LOW.. IMD-GFS predicts a S-E Tamilnadu coast & N.Srilanka landfall on 31-Oct... http://ow.ly/i/14eAv

Bay LOW, COLA model suggests that the LOW will come near to N-E Srilanka and then move N-W & land over central TN coast http://ow.ly/i/14eB5

RT @reghunadhapuram: Super horrible rain at south Kerala (6:34pm)

6:30pm, Bay Low "93W" is almost stagnant & NO strengthening seen, Only a mild drift to W-S-W during the past 6hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/14ewp

1:30pm, "93W" is almost a depression now.. and expected to track west .. http://ow.ly/i/14dxD

#chennai - 1:45pm, Sharp showers continue over zones South of city at around 40km from city.. Mahabalipuram zone.

BB-10, now as a depression is currently at 10N and 84E, with a core pressure of 1002 mb. 
As the system is just South of the favourable ridge (mentioned earlier), it will track West, and due to adjacent wind shear at 20 knts, it will deepen more, and develop a stronger wind force in the Northern semi circle. This semi circle will have winds upto 30 knts, and Chennai will get gusty NE winds of the same speed from Sunday night  itself.

BB-10 will move into central coastal TN around Monday night, with centre at Nagapattinum/Karaikal. Heavy falls in Puddukotai and Thanjavur districts. But, rainfall will be increasing throughout the TN regions from Sunday evening, with heavier falls in the Northern coastal regions.
After crossing land, the system weakens.

See Chart and details in vagaries

"93W" - now a cyclone alert is issued

JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation alert for "93W".
11:30am, Latest satellite pic of "93W"...

JTWC warning at 9am IST
----------------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 86.1E TO 8.8N 80.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
84.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 
86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A 
CLOUD-COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280007Z SSMIS 
IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALED 25-30 
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER (10-15 KNOT) 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS  
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS 
THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING 
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.

NOGAPS model suggestion
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NOGAPS model suggests that "93W" will develop as a Depression and cross into Central,S-E Tamilnadu coast touching N.Srilanka on 30-Oct.

Showers seen along Central Tamilnadu coast and even into N.Tamilnadu coast.
11:30am, Sharp showers seen over S,S-E of Chennai city.

"93W" and "96A" - update

7:30am, "93W" is showing good signs of strengthening.
From Yesterday evening the system is maintaining a core.
Crawled W-S-W in last 6 hrs.
Pressure is at 1004mb.
Showers has started along Central Tamilnadu coast.
Now, Showers seen along Mahabalipuram coast as well near Chennai.
Just 15 min back even Chennai had a drizzle !

Meanwhile S-E Arabian sea LOW is also marked for tracking.
Marked as "96A"

28 Oct 2012 cloud mass

This is the latest cloud imagery.  Cloud have entered Coramandal coast [i.e between Kodiyakarai and Cuddalore] It will batter the coast.  The other cloud mass is at about 550km east of this coast.  As the 200hPa ridge is just above 13 Deg N latitude it can be presumed that cloud mass will move due WEST only and hit this coast

"93W" is now having "Almost a core"

10:30pm, "93W" over S-central Bay now have "Almost a core" ... still pressure is near 1006mb and tracking West.
Showers seen very near to Central Tamilnadu coast.
If the track continues to be West, then showers may break over central Tamilnadu coast during early hours of Sunday.