Monday, April 16, 2012

July rains could fail India, says Japanese model

In our archive, Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we predicted July the month of extreme uncertainty for the monsoon because of a negative IOD. More so as it is the month that accounts for nearly 33% of the SW Monsoon.  Our model assumed a weak IOD maybe upto 4% deficiency for July.

But the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo forecast now say that things could go much worse - almost total failure of the monsoon during July.  If so, this is really bad news as next year we can expect another lean monsoon due to the weak El NiƱo event expected. 

Rule on monsoon forecasts to be eased

This is proving embarrassing. There actually exists a law prohibiting private agencies from forecasting the monsoon. This means that people like Rajesh Kapadia and me are law breakers as we published our monsoon forecasts! But there is good news. A change in a decade-old rule will allow private organizations in the country— and not just the India Meteorological Department (IMD)— to issue monsoon forecasts. Phew!

chennai - 4:10pm, temp. 34.0°C ... Sea breeze has set in from S-E ... temp. will go down in another 30 min
RT @saifarash: Clear skies nw Kozhikode 2pm,increasing clouds,chance for T shower at evening LIVE pic from my house
Some one asked, HOW "feels like" temperature is calculated?? Here it is... >>>
Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Wild Card ...
Mumbai - 11:10am, temp. 31.0°C and feels like 40.7°C... WoW
chennai - 11:10am, 34.0°C and feels like 38 deg C
chennai - going to have 37 / 38 deg C for next 3 days with moderate humidity !
@bheemaupadhyaya >> bangalore - can expect 1 T.shower in next 3 days.. as isolated T.showers forecast for S, central. Karnataka till 19-Apr
RT @bheemaupadhyaya: @weatherofindia Bangalore is really hotter, any rain predictions for Bangalore? (11:34am)
Places which gets 5000 mm rainfall in a year & Wettest place in each state of India ... MUST read ..
As a pre-cursor to next W.D .. T.showers will spread into W. India on 18-Apr and then will reach W.Kashmir on 20/21-Apr.
T.showers to move into Rajasthan, Gujarat, W. MP, W.Maharastra and mumbai ...from 18/19-Apr..
More T.showers forecast for N,N-W India till Wednesday ..
On 15-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 42.5°C was recorded at Bramhapuri (Maharashtra)
Both N.Arabian sea & N.Bay Anti-cyclones to become strong and persist till 22-Apr and beyond..
On 19-Apr, a weak circulation is expected over area Along Kanyakumari and S.Gulf Mannar .. more T.showers forecast..
Like yesterday, Today also heavy moisture is lingering over Kerala & adjoining S.Tamilnadu ... More T.showers forecast.
10:30am, Sat. shot shows the clouds associated with E-S-E Bay circulation .. expected to move West .
RT @prudhvk: Raining here in kottayam thellakom. Enjoying smell of kerala rain in window :-) (9:50am)
RT @indianewsbot: Pleasant morning in Delhi, warm day ahead:
Today, a strong circulation has popped over E-S-E Bay near S.Andaman islands ... this is expected to move West..
RT @rajugana: Baroda 11.05am, Slight drop in temp yestday 38C. Today, Clear skies, Sunny, hot n humid. a pic
RT @saifarash: Hot, Humid and Sunny here Kozhikode Malappuram 34°C FL40°C Kerala, view from my house 1.45pm,15-Apr
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Clear skies, no winds, looks like summer (normal) weather is back. Will another WD interrupt this? YES