Thursday, June 10, 2010

If we have a look at the rain fall distribution map of 10th. morning (IMD), we see some fairly good amounts of rain in Kerala and the North-East on Wednesday.The NRL rain accumalation map for the day of 10th. June shows some rainfall in South Konkan and Goa, and some parts of coastal Gujarat.
What I am coming to is still there is very sparse rainfall north of the Karnataka coast. I would justify an advance (of the Monsoon) North of Karnataka  only after the predicted Low comes into effect off the Goa coast.

The formation of a trough off the Goa coast (see map), still in the initial stage seen as an upper air low,and forming, may have inspired the announcement of the advance into South Konkan. In the MSLP map, a weak ridge is still visible in the Arabian Sea. (The reason for the North-West winds). This needs to be eliminated, to ensure a full fledged monsoon along the west coast, and for further progress into the interiors thence.
Progress in the sequence forecasted in yesterday's write up: The low in the Bay seems to be creeping inland, and is now a "pulse", which is expected to track westwards through Karnataka. All pieces must fall in place and the low must re-emerge in the Arabian Sea for the monsoon to move north from Monday as estimated.
Shall keep this space updated on the progress.

Hottest in Asia: Dammam Airport (Saudi Arabia)       47c
Hottest in Sub-Continent: Jacobabad (Pakistan):      44c
Hottest in India: Akola (Maharashtra) ;                        45.4c
Hottest Night: Chandrapur (Maharashtra):                 32.8c

Nagercoil - now 7:30pm ,having good Low cloud formation from west and light drizzle. will receive good showers from tomorrow evening.
5pm, Showers all over Karnataka, Andhra, N.central Tamilnadu and central Tamilnadu ...
RT @Noorudeen_VK: its monsoon in kerala. enjoying rain!!! (2:32pm)
RT @epispider: Kerala stands top in the H1N1 deaths :: Health ministry (
On 9-Jun, highest maximum temperatures of 44.2°C were recorded at Chandrapur (Maharashtra).
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 2-3 °C over northwest India, Tamilnadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of northeast states
Conditions are favourable for advance of monsoon into more parts of Maharashtra, n. interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs
FULL Rainfall data of 8-Jun-10 ... PDF....
Rain map of 9-Jun...
3pm, Showers over S. Chatisgarh, All over central Orissa, S. Bengal ...
3pm, lots of thunder showers breaking out along S-w coastal Maharastra, S.central Karnataka, N-E andhra ...
RT @EcoSeed: Organic Cotton Umbrellas From Stromberg
Chennai - temp. now 2:12pm is 31.6°C and fully cloudy. No sign of rain.
Monsoon to peak from Weekend, powered by "TWIN engines" ... !!! ....

Monsoon may peak next week

The South-West monsoon may ratchet up to peak strength next week with “twin engines” firing away at vanguard points in the seas across the peninsula.
The prognosis has lead to one model, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to suggest that seasonal rains could even manage to cover the entire country just ahead of the June 30 time line.


This is saying much, according to experts, given that the system had stalled for a week in the onset phase with Super Cyclone Phet upending the rhythm.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees monsoon winds roaring across the farming heartland powered by the ‘twin engines' on either side of the peninsula.
By mentioning twin engines, the reference is to concurrent ‘low'/depression spearheading rains respectively from the Gujarat coast and the head Bay of Bengal.
The latter is considered the monsoon ‘sweet spot' for low's ensuring orderly march of the rains to northwest India across the Gangetic plains.


This would provide for the most ideal setting, not seen for a long time now, showing monsoon in full flow across the landmass.
According to the NCEP, the west coast would be active during the current week ending June 16. Crucially enough, the Bay of Bengal is forecast to continue to be active in the following week ending June 25, helping bring rains into northwest India.
North-West India has already had its fair share of heavy to very heavy but non-seasonal rains from surplus moisture fanned in by erstwhile tropical cyclone ‘Phet.'
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that the rains had caused temperatures to plunge by a massive 19 deg Celsius in the region due to overcast skies and rains.


On the flip side, though, this would briefly unsettle the ‘heat low' sitting in the region with a major say on pulling in the monsoon winds.
‘Top heat,' in this manner, has now shifted to central and east India.
But an IMD outlook for the next two days said that maximum temperature would start rising by 6 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of northwest India.
On Wednesday, the previous day's upper air cyclonic circulation descended to the lower levels and set up a ‘low' over west-central Bay.
Global Forecasting System (GFS) model outputs by the NCEP continued to suggest that the system may track west across the peninsula and emerge into the Arabian Sea.
The IMD saw intensification of monsoon flow over Arabian Sea, south peninsular India and Bay of Bengal during the next four days.
NCEP outlooks suggested that the system in the Arabian Sea may track north and take the monsoon with it into Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15.
But it showed the system parked away from the Gujarat coast that day up to which forecasts were available on Wednesday.
The ECMWF in its short-to-medium forecast said that the system would wash ashore along the Gujarat coast and oversee the progress of rains in tandem with a ‘low' shaping up concurrently over the head Bay.
The IMD has warned of isolated heavy rainfall over the Northeastern States, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.
Forecasts until Saturday said that fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over Rayalaseema and Telangana during the next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
Forecasts until Monday suggested that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, the Northeastern States and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Monsoon regains ground, heads towards Konkan-Mumbai

The monsoon has covered good ground to make up for most of the delayed onset forced by tropical cyclone Phet, reaching Karwar on the west coast on Monday.


Conditions are favourable for its further advance over some parts of Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next three days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Tuesday.
The system had not advanced beyond the northern limit aligned southwest to northeast along Karwar, Agumbe, Hassan, Bangalore, Cuddapah, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok reached on Monday, the IMD said.
The northward progress from here into Mumbai would be watched carefully. Indications are that the arrival over Mumbai could get delayed beyond the scheduled June-10 timeline. According to international model prognosis, this would be more than made up by a monsoon surge to follow with the Bay of Bengal too getting into the act.
The monsoon flows are shown to strengthen from Thursday with the likely formation of a full-blown offshore trough along the west coast.
The Bay of Bengal has spun up a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday, which is forecast to intensify as a “low”.
This would track west and cross close to the Chennai coast.
The system would continue to track to the west and emerge into the Arabian Sea where the strengthening flows would help intensify the system and push it northward along the coast, according to international model outlook.


According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the intensified system would be appropriated by a westerly trough dipping into the south and pulled up towards Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15. In fact, the ECMWF sees the westerly trough making a “double dip” – into the Arabian Sea as explained above and even into the Bay of Bengal across the peninsula – to drive the monsoon to peak activity.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) too sees the Arabian Sea system heading towards the Mumbai-south Gujarat coast.
However, Global Forecasting System model of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy has a slightly different take on this.
According to this model, the northward-moving weather system may split, with one sibling spinning away into the outer seas towards the Oman coast. The other one would track India's west coast and wheel towards the Mumbai-Gujarat coast.
What is apparently becoming a foregone conclusion is the possibility for heavy rains over the Mumbai-south Gujarat-west Madhya Pradesh region from June 15.
On Tuesday, the remnant “low” from erstwhile super cyclone Phet lay over northwest Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarkhand.
During the last 24 to 48 hours since Phet washed ashore and crossed into northwest India, widespread rainfall has been reported from many parts in the region.
While the system had interacted with a prevailing western disturbance, the IMD sees another westerly system drifting into the region over the next three days.
The ongoing rainfall in the northwest had driven away “top heat” further south and southeast to over pockets of east Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The highest maximum temperature of 44.7 deg Celsius was recorded at Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
An IMD forecast has warned of isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and over the Northeastern States during the next two days.
Thunder squalls may occur at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
Chennai - Will remain cloudy thru the day with some drizzles expected at 3pm and more showers expected after 5pm.
This is why Chennai is cloudy ..
Chennai - is cloudy from yesterday morning .. till now 12:40pm.. presently this is due to Showers over S.Andhra coast from Bay.
Mumbai - Typical monsoonish flooding weather from Tuesday,15th, June ....
RT @sa_lil: @weatherofindia What's your forecast for Mumbai. Monsoon by Tuesday? ..YES ... check this ...
@sa_lil >> Monsoon for Mumbai around 15-Jun... check this update from our web ...
Very heavy and widespread monsoon showers for Karnataka coast and Kerala from Saturday, 12-Jun ...
Heavy monsoon showers to start along S.Karnataka coast and Kerala from evening of 10-Jun ...
Satellite shows Showers over S. Andhra coast and this is due to the M.High level circulation over W.central Bay...
A medium high level circulation is still over W.central Bay just East of Chennai ..
Two LOW level circulations, one over Arabian sea W. of Goa and another over Central Bay .. both are in same parallel..
RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda, 9.20 am, overcast sky.. yet to get pre-monsoon showers!!