Saturday, June 12, 2010

Saturday,12th, June:
Highest in Asia: Basrah(Iraq): 49c
Highest in Pakistan: Sukkar: 46c
Highest in India: Brahmapur (Maharashtra) 46.1c

 Due to the formation of a good off shore trough along the west coast, very heavy rains are possible over north Kerala and adjoining coastal and south interior Karnataka....more here.
RT @sijojamesjohn: RT @binoyxj: RT @karmadude: MG Road flooded monsoon kochi
RT @svenketeswaran: Rain lasing across Kerala. I came for shopping and got held up at home. (1:36pm)
RT @hashkochi: RT @nommypaul : My timeline is full of stories about rain n monsoon kochi kerala
RT @kumarvimal: Anyone who wanna play and dance in rain like a child? Join me :-) *monsoon on the pick in kerala* rain
RT @piyush_veere: - A Huge cloud chunk covering the Patna. @WeatherOfIndia
RT @devswonderland: It's raining in Bangalore Indiranagar now 3.38pm IST @weatherofindia
On 11-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 44.7°C was recorded at Deesa, Idar (Gujarat) and Akola (Maharashtra).
Heat wave conditions are prevailing over parts of Vidarbha, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat region and Bihar.
FULL rainfall data for 10-Jun... PDF...
The northern limit of S-W monsoon as on 12-Jun... MAP....
IRI :: Flood warning for most of the southern peninsular over the six-day-period ending 17-Jun-10...

US forecaster puts South India on flood alert

The monsoon has beat forecasts to advance into Mumbai on Friday, which means the seasonal rains have cut down the ‘onset phase lag' to just one day.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon has since covered more parts of central Arabian Sea, most parts of Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra including Pune, parts of Marathwada, most of Karnataka and entire Rayalaseema.

The rains have also marched into parts of Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, most parts of west-central Bay of Bengal and parts of the north Bay.
The northern limit of monsoon passed through Mumbai, Pune, Osmanabad, Hyderabad, Visakhapatnam, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok on Friday.
The IMD said conditions are favourable for further advance into remaining parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh and southern parts of Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Orissa during the next four days.
The strong revival of the monsoon over the past couple of days is being attributed to the low-pressure area staying put over the west-central Bay. The longer it stay in the waters, the stronger the flows would be.
The department said the monsoon flow over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal would further intensify during the next three days.

The International Research Institute (IRI) of Climate and Society at Columbia University has issued a flood warning for most of the southern peninsular over the six-day-period ending mid-week next week.
A related outlook from IMD valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over the North-East, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The IRI warning said that floods associated with heavy to very heavy rainfall ‘anytime during this period.'
North Kerala and adjoining coastal Karnataka could turn the ‘wettest spots' with some exceptionally heavy rainfall being forecast over these regions.
The US-based forecaster said that floods are possible over the north Kerala and coastal Karnataka coasts; south Konkan; north and south interior Karnataka; contiguous north and coastal Tamil Nadu; and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Heavy to very heavy rains are possible over north Kerala and adjoining south interior Karnataka; eastern parts of north interior Karnataka; and west Rayalaseema.
In this manner, wetter than normal conditions are forecast over entire southern peninsula, becoming less wet to the north; head Bay of Bengal and the Kolkata region but tapering off in intensity into adjoining east-central and central India.

Meanwhile, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) said that the Bay ‘low' would cross the south coastal Andhra Pradesh-north Tamil Nadu coast on Saturday.
It is shown to immediately trigger the formation of a counterpart system across the peninsula in the Arabian Sea off the Konkan coast.
The strong Arabian Sea flows would put the system on a track to the north; the NCEP said on Friday that this track would take it directly over Mumbai-Gujarat by June 15.
From here, the system would keep tracking further to the north into northwest India after traversing entire Gujarat, southwest Rajasthan before turning northeast to sit over east Rajasthan by June 17 up to which forecasts were available.
An IMD outlook until Sunday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over south interior Karnataka, south Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-East and Rayalaseema.
In its short-to-medium term outlook valid until June 15, the IMD said that the rainfall activity would further along west coast, south Gujarat and over the North-East

Arabian Sea put under watch for renewed churn

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has once again put the north Arabian Sea under watch for ‘tropical cyclogenesis' (likely formation of a monsoon depression) during the week ending June 14.
In its outlook, the CPC said that numerical weather forecast guidance and above average sea-surface temperatures support the potential development of a system over the region during this period.

On a scale of three (high to moderate to weak), the CPC assessed as ‘moderate' the chance of development of the system. Other leading forecast agencies too have been indicating the possibility of an existing ‘low' in the west-central Bay of Bengal crossing the peninsula and emerging into the Arabian Sea to trigger a chain of events leading to the formation of the system.
The system is forecast to cut a path to the north, intensify and lie parked off the Gujarat coast for sometime, according to latest outlook by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Around this time, some churning would take place in the head Bay where a counterpart system would likely be thrown up, an outlook that the ECMWF maintained on Thursday as well.
This would set up the ‘twin engines' on which the monsoon would propel itself into central India and adjoining northwest of India.
In fact, the ECMWF indicated that the Bay system would get a move to the west and park itself over Madhya Pradesh around June 20.

The CPC also enhanced (‘moderate') chances of increased rainfall for peninsular India and the west coast, including Mumbai and south Gujarat, during the week June 8 to 14.
The following week (June 15 to 21) could also likely see extended rains for south peninsular India even as numerical weather forecast guidance suggested enhanced monsoon circulation in the region.
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) generally supported the outlook saying that the west coast and the head Bay would witness enhanced activity during June 11 to 17.
The following week (June 18 to 24) may see deep convection sitting over the Mumbai-Gujarat region and the head Bay.
Meanwhile on Thursday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that the monsoon has advanced into parts of Konkan, Goa, south Madhya Maharashtra and north interior Karnataka, coastal and south interior Karnataka and more parts of Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The northern limit of monsoon passed through Ratnagiri, Sangli, Bijapur, Gadag, Anantpur, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been warned of over the Northeastern States, the west coast, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Wednesday's ‘low' over west-central Bay persisted. Under its pull effect, the monsoon flow over Arabian Sea is expected to intensify during the next three days.
The outlook until June 13 spoke of the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Lakshadweep, south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States and Rayalaseema.
According to the Chennai Met Centre, rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and Lakshadweep during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala and coastal Karnataka; at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep; and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema.
Isolated heavy rain has been warned of over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
2:30pm, Due to LOW pressure & circulation over W. Bay.. showers all along Coastal Andhra, Orissa and S. Bengal...
2:30pm, Heavy showers over central Kerala up to S. coastal Karnataka continues..
On 11-Jun, Southwest monsoon has been vigorous over Coastal Andhra, Kerala, Rayalaseema & N. Interior Karnataka.. PDF..
In 72 hrs a D.Depression will form in Arabian sea just W-S-W of Mumbai... ... This'll bring Monsoon to Gujarat & Mahar
At present we have a LOW over W. Bay just off S. Andhra..
In next 48hrs there'll be a LOW pressure system along S.Maharastra coast just S-W of Mumbai and this will intensify..
Low & high level circulation over Bay just off S.Andhra coast and another one along S-W Maharastra coast...
Low level Wind analysis shows good S-W winds moving over Kerala from Arabian sea ...
@bijumly >> 100% good and long monsoon expected for Kerala this Year - 2010
RT @chennaiweather: Rain in coimbatore as monsoon is very active in kerla
Low pressure and Circulation associated with it up to High level still persists over W.central Bay along S. Andhra and N. Tamilnadu coast.
10am, Heavy showers again over entire S. and N. andhra coast,...
10am, Monsoon showers can be seen over Karnataka and W. Maharastra ...
Nagercoil - S-W monsoon is vigorous over Kanyakumari district with sharp intermittent showers continue..!...
Nagercoil - Intermittent sharp showers continue from 11am, 11-Jun.. showers continued all thru night and into early morning of 12-Jun-10
10am, Heavy monsoon showers all over Kerala ..