Friday, July 16, 2010

Getting reports of heavy thunder storm sweeping tindivanam & villupuram (tamilnadu) zones now 9pm
Chennai - With the sea breeze.. as expected we have good low cloud formation from S-W.. Chance of shower is increased to 85% after 5 pm
Chennai - touched a max of 35.9 C (1:42pm) and now 3:20pm, with a High cloud cover & good Sea breeze.. its 31.4 C
2:30pm, scattered Thunder showers popping up over.. Maharastra, N & E Karnataka, N & N-E Andhra, S. Tamilnadu...
2:30pm, Entire Uttar Pradesh is under heavy showers...
Fresh spell for north-west from next week ...
rainfall is expected to be stronger on the eastern and southeastern coast according to forecasts valid until July 24..
12:30pm, Heavy showers again over Entire Uttar pradesh and Himalayan foot hills ...

Fresh spell for north-west from next week

India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects an increase in rainfall activity over the north-west region, along with east and north-east India, from July 20 onwards. Large parts of Rajasthan, except eastern flanks of the State, have remained without rain over the past week or two.
The Global Forecast System model of the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services indicates that rains may manage to penetrate the desert State during this phase.

While northern parts of the State are expected to receive the rains during the week ending July 22, the week that follows (July 23 to 29) would see the wet cover being extended to the rest of the State, the CPC outlook says.
The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy seemed to concur with this view, with easterlies beginning to fill the northern plains around this time to scare away invading northwesterlies.
The FNMOC forecasts showed a blob of heavy rain sitting over west Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan border and aiming to venture further west-northwest into Rajasthan during this period.
Meanwhile, away in the north-west Pacific, contrary to forecasts, Tropical Storm Conson is now expected to turn north-west and enter the South China Sea aiming to hit southwest China coast.
The London-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Group had expected Conson to move in a linear fashion after leaving the Philippine archipelago and head straight towards the southeast coast of China.

But this does not mean a major change in the landfall schedule, the TSR Group seemed to suggest, which is fixed around Saturday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) also agrees with this schedule, which could just give the go-ahead for monsoon flows to revive over Arabian Sea two days hence.
The flows were instead being diverted to feed the Pacific storm system, before a bulk could make it to the Arabian Sea.
A deep westerly trough is shown dipping into Rajasthan as the Arabian Sea flows revive, forcing an incumbent high-pressure cell over the region to step back to the west and beyond the international border.

Meanwhile on Thursday, the IMD located the previous day's upper air cyclonic circulation (in lieu of the low-pressure area that did not materialise) over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood.
The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting quoted model predictions to suggest that the monsoon may lie along near-normal axis during the next three days.
But it may once again shift back to the foothills of the Himalayas. The back and forth swing of the trough would bring variously heavy rainfall over east-central, east and eastern parts of North-West India.
The IMD has said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over the west coast, East Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, the Northeastern States, West Madhya Pradesh and Lakshadweep during this period.
Scattered rainfall has been indicated over Uttarkhand, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and south Interior Karnataka.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over west Uttar Pradesh on Friday and increase thereafter, the IMD said.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days.
Isolated heavy rainfall has also been forecast over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during this period.

Arabian Sea flows to revive early next week

The revival of monsoon flows over the Arabian Sea would be delayed until early next week (by July 19-20), according to international model forecasts.
The delay is mainly attributed to the Northwest Pacific cyclone (typhoon) named Conson, which has been siphoning off a chunk of India-bound flows away from the equatorial seas.
Conson is expected to weaken after a second landfall over southeast China over the next two to three days.

On Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) apparently withdrew the previous day's forecast for a low-pressure area to spring up in the northwest Bay of Bengal.
Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed the monsoon flows being guided away from equatorial Indian Ocean to feed tropical storm Conson.
In return, the Bay has had to content itself with an upper air cyclonic circulation that lay parked over Gangetic West Bengal and neighbourhood.
This circulation is forecast to spin its way northwest over east India, which promises to bring more heavy rains over east India and along the foothills of the Himalayas.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) saw monsoon flows making a smart turnaround by early next week. Most of the monsoon activity is shown to be concentrated over peninsular India, aided by likely low-pressure areas over the seas on either side.

The rainfall is expected to be stronger on the eastern and southeastern coast according to forecasts valid until July 24.
On Wednesday, strong southwesterly winds continued to prevail over Gujarat and Rajasthan in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
But the western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood was in the process of moving away eastwards.
This is expected to let the monsoon trough jettison itself from the Himalayan foothills where it is locked into.
The IMD quoted numerical weather prediction models to suggest that the axis of the monsoon trough may indeed shift to the southwards during the two days.

Forecasts until Saturday indicated that widespread rain or thundershowers would continue to lash East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
Heavy to very heavy rains during the last few days have improved the overall rainfall scenario in east and northeast India, bringing the deficit down to 21 per cent, the most among the four homogenous regions.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
Isolated heavy rainfall activity is likely over east Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Vidarbha during this period.
As for the rest of the week, fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, the Northeastern States, West Madhya Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
The rains would be scattered over Uttarakhand, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Saurashtra and Kutch.
Towards the west and central India, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over west coast and scattered over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and South Interior Karnataka and isolated over Uttar Pradesh before scaling up from Thursday.
Muggy weather as rains elude Delhi ...
South West Monsoon Rainfall from 1-June-2010 to 14-July-2010 .. FULL Report ...
RT @rohitghule: @weatherofindia this weak monsoon is going to kill water in dams around Pune. Wht r the reasons of this weak phase on monsoon?
RT @shimishah: monsoon in mumbai is crazy! Soaked again!
Chennai - now 12:22pm we have cold winds from W-S-W... After 4pm & with Sea breeze.. we'll have thunder cells developing from W-S-W
Chennai - Temp. now 12:10pm is 34.0 C and rising.. will touch 36 C around 1:30pm and then go down along with Sea breeze
RT @sansankar: Weak monsoon not yet a worry for India: Pawar: ...
RT @mandaliyavishal: Today's Monsoon Alert, Hightide (4.7M) today at 3.40pm MUMBAI
@rohitghule >> Saturday & Sunday only passing showers after that till Wednesday, 21-Jul.. moderate to heavy showers possible.
Entire west coast will get widespread heavy monsoon showers from Today evening till Wednesday, 21-Jul.
@juxhotdude >> Delhi will get its share of Monsoon showers from Tuesday, 20-Jul... follow us for more, visit
RT @juxhotdude: people say monsoon is here in delhi............. show me the
Today & Tomorrow, very heavy showers forecast for S. Andhra coast and N. Tamilnadu coast.. including Chennai ...
@rohitghule >> More chances of rain for Pune around coming week mid.
@rohitghule > Yes, as the west coast will get heavy showers from today evening.. there's every chance of Showers for Pune from Saturday.
11am, As expected the W.central Bay along Andhra coast is very active.. heavy showers along S. Andhra coast...
RT @rajesh26: @weatherofindia Cats and dogs in Mumbai today morning...kittens and pups in lakes :) (9:21am)
11am, Arabian sea wing of monsoon is setting itself for a next round of West coast Deluge starting from today evening,,
RT @EcoSeed: Solar Laptops