Wednesday, December 31, 2014



இனிய புத்தாண்டு நல்வாழ்த்துக்கள் 


95B has weakened to a Low pressure area and drift N-N-W, now pressure at 1006mb, located at 15.4N , 84.7E.. 
95B has started to fizzle out now. It'll continue to drift North towards Odisha coast as Easterlies trough in 24hrs 

4:30pm, very less convective activity seen around 95B, cloudy with drizzle over Odisha, S Bengal, South N-E states 
4:30pm, ... cloudy with light,moderate rain over Madhyapradesh, N,central Maharastra.
T showers over S Tamilnadu.

Before evening of 1-Jan-2015... showers expected along N,central coast Odisha and into S Bengal !
Wet New year's eve, early hrs for N-W,N,W,central,S Maharastra into S,S-W Madhyapradesh... 
New Year day T showers ...
for N,central,S Tamilnadu.
Some may creep into S,W suburbs of Chennai.

Upper-level W.D trough, low-level W.D circulation over N-E Arabian sea and interaction with easterlies will give rain, hails over Maharastra
Present upper-level W.D trough is seen dipping south upto 19N from N Pakistan. 
It'll drift east and weaken in 48hrs
New Year day.. 
Moderate rain/hail over S-E Gujarat, N,W,central, S Maharastra, S,W,central Madhyapradesh, N,N-W Andhra, N,N-E Karnataka.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Weather Instagram at December 30, 2014 at 03:46PM

Bangalore - 3:42pm, Thunder clouds hovering over south Bangalore. #weather

from Instagram

95B - during past 12hrs has drifted North and intensified slightly.
Pressure 1003mb.
Location 12.3N, 83.3E.. 

95B - expected to drift N,N-N-E during next 24 to 48hrs without much intensification.
Weakening possibility is high 

2pm, Visible shows that 95B has started to drift away from Tamilnadu coast ... 

Light rain possible for Chennai, N-coast Tamilnadu, S-coast Andhra during next 24hrs.
T showers for S,S-central, W-ghats Tamilnadu on today evening and on 31-Dec.
In the wake of 95B..
Scattered T showers expected to pop over Maharastra, Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Andhra on 1,2-Jan-2015.
RT @Serene_Meadows:  Snowfall likely in J&K, HP and Uttaranchal in first week of January. More cold weather ahead. 

1:30pm, Dense FOG still seen over parts of S-W,central Punjab and central,w-central Uttarpradesh.. 

Today morning, most of N,N-W,N-central India recorded temps below 10 C.
Delhi-AP = 4 C
Udaipur = 3 C
Varanasi = 4 C (-5)

Due to foggy days, most places in N,N-central India recorded a low day temps as well..
Lucknow = 12C (-11)
Amristar = 12C (-7)
Day time cold temperature in Chennai and rainfall !!
Around 3pm, IWM Polichalur recorded a low temp of 21.3 C ... 
Chennai - Polichalur zone got good steady rain from 4:30pm.
12:25am, during past 24hrs, IWM Polichalure has got 62.4mm of rainfall.

95B is now a Well Marked LOW with pressure around 1003/1004mb. It has drifted North and now at 10.2N , 83E ... 
11pm, Heavy convective activity near center and over N,N-E,S-E quadrants of "95B"... 

In next 24hrs, the 95B is expected to drift North upto 13N and then drift N-N-E on 31-Dec... 
N-N-E movement of 95B is expected due to formation of mid,upper-level W.D trough from N Pakistan dipping South to 20N over N-E Arabian sea

Here's the upper-level chart showing the W.D trough (expected in next 18hrs)... 

On 31-Dec and 1-Jan-2015, the weakened circulation of 95B is expected to reach S Odisha coast... 
On 31-Dec, 1-Jan-2015, Heavy showers may push into central,N Odisha coast and into S coast Bengal, Kolkata ... 
Is it going to be a rainy NEW YEAR eve and new year day for Bhubaneshwar and Kolkata ??
All depends on LOW 95B's movement today !

Today, moderate rain expected to persist over N coast Tamilnadu, Chennai and S coast Andhra.
HEAVY scattered T Showers expected over S,S-tip and W-ghats Tamilnadu on today and 31-Dec... 

Monday, December 29, 2014

Day time cold temperature in Chennai and rainfall

The easterly wave progression is vivid. 
The low in the lower latitude [10 DEG North] is oscillated in the progress of easterly wave. 
Since it is wave type propagation only NON convective clouds are predominant. The movement is tossed by troughs & crusts. [(Alternate) west-east shift of cloud formation and east to west dissipation of cloud band]  This will persist for another 48 hours.

This will enhance the rainfall for Chennai city.

The cold easterly trough brought day time cold in north coastal Tamil Nadu ,especially at Chennai, and the stratus clouds gave moderate to heavy rainfall.
The crest in the west will be moisturized to give [dense] fog in North  western parts of TamilNadu
Chennai - 8:18am, light rain continue over Polichalur zone. So far IWM Polichalur has recorded 13.5mm of rainfall.

S-W Bay LOW "95B" has intensified slightly and drifted North, now positioned at 9.1N , 83.3E ... 

7:30am, visible shot shows, most of convective activity is over N,N-W,N-E from center of 95B... 
8:10am, more rain pushing towards central,N Tamilnadu coast, Chennai ... this time it'll heavier ... 

As of now, In next 2 days, 95B is expected to drift North along Tamilnadu coast as a Well marked LOW..

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Posted Sunday 28th Night:

BB-15 !The sysytem now as a Low at 7.7N and 84E, is around 1006 mb. Seeing the behaviour of the upper level winds, I expect this system to deepen stage wise to depression and track towards the TN coast. BB-15 is then expected, after traking along the coast, to weaken after Monday and fizzle out around 15N in the Bay.

29th December ; Heavy to Moderate Rainfall is expected : Along the North TN Coast. Chennai: Around 40-45 mms 29th Morning- 31st Morning). 
Light rains in Central TN.
30th : Heavy to Moderate Rains in Coastal AP. Moderate Rains in Coastal Odisha, TN and Kerala. Drizzles in Bangalore.

New Year EVE: 31st December: Heavy Rains in Coastal AP/Odisha. Vizag: Around 40 mms 30th morning-1st Morning). 
Moderate Rains in Interior Odisha and Parts of South Chattisgarh (Raipur: Upto 5 mms)).
Light showers in Aurangabad  , AhmednagarJalna and Western Vidarbha (Akola). (Rains in Central India due to an inland trough ). Drizzles in Bangalore.

Very Cilly Night with around freezing temperatures in Punjab/Haryana, parts of NCR and Rajasthan.  
Mumbai will be pleasant and windy in the evening. Low at Santa Cruz around 16c and 19/20c at Colaba. Partly cloudy next few days.
Goa will be partly cloudy with light showers in the night or 1st morning.
Pakistan Northern plains and Sindh to face very cold temperatures from 31st for 2/3 days. Around freezing in Sindh plains and Punjab.

New Year: 1st January 2015: Heavy Rainfall in Coastal West Bengal and adjoining Odisha. 
Moderate to light showers and hails in Marathwada (Aurangabad : Around 20 mms in 2 days. Very cold day)), West Vidarbha (Akola), North Maharashtra (Hails) (Pune/ Nasik), Interior Karnataka (Belgaum) ( Bangalore: Showers on 1st around 15 mms in some parts), Hyderabad, Parts of South Gujarat Coast (Surat: Upto 3 mms), Baroda).
Cold Wave in all of Northern regions continue and intensify from 2nd January. Gujarat and Kutch get cold from 1st January.

From vagaries

Chennai - 6:40pm, Strong drizzle now. First rain due to S-W Bay LOW "95B". More coming up around midnight, early hrs. 

6:30pm, Deep convective activity seen around S-W Bay LOW "95B" and over its Northern band ... 

Karaikal - 2pm, it's been drizzling continuously with an occasional moderate shower.

RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia Delhi all fogged out this morning. Easily the worst fog of this season. 8:22am

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 10.00am.. Foggy, chilly, lazy Sunday..cloudy skies..a pic

From morning, showers seen over Central coast Tamilnadu... Now rain slowly creeping to N coast Tamilnadu.

Chennai - 1:15pm, again a cloudy day and bit humid, warm than yesterday. Rain nearing from SE, drizzle will push in after 4pm.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

95B - S-W Bay Low - What next ??

At present, a low,mid-level circulation is seen over a Sea level LOW pressure system over S-W Bay near to East Srilanka coast.

Present pressure is around 1004mb
And location is 7.5N , 83.3E.

GFS model doesn't expect the system to deepen to Depression (or) move North or N-W before Monday morning. And after that, it'll deepen to a Depression or Well marked LOW and drift into central Tamilnadu coast on 30-Dec.

NAVGEM model almost similar to GFS, expects the system to become Well Marked LOW on Monday and drift into central Tamilnadu coast on 30-Dec.

On Tuesday, 30-Dec... an upper-level W.D trough is expected to drop upto 21N along S Pakistan, W,N-W Gujarat. This is expected to drift East into India in subsequent days, this can make the S-W Bay system to drift North initially and then N-E along S-E coast of India into N Bay.

According to GFS, Showers will reach central,N Tamilnadu coast and even Chennai after morning or noon of Sunday, 28-Dec.
On Monday, HEAVY rain expected along central,S-E,N Tamilnadu coast and moderate rain into Chennai.

Weather Instagram at December 27, 2014 at 07:29PM

Mahabalipuram - 3:38pm, slightly foggy, mild, breezy and cloudy. #weather

from Instagram

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 3.45pm, After a hot and breezy day, now the sky appears partially cloudy with high broken clouds...

Important update regarding SW bay low and circulation 95B, and its impact for Tamilnadu... Coming up at around 9:30pm !

Weather Instagram at December 27, 2014 at 01:20PM

Chennai - 1pm, slight foggy, cloudy. Breezy and temp at 28 C. #weather

from Instagram

Friday, December 26, 2014

Posted Friday Night: BB-15 

A Low has formed in the Southern Bay estimated at around 5.5N and 84.4E. In the 700 hpa trough now, expected to deepen from the current status and embed another Low (BB-15) in the 500 hpa trough by Sunday. 
Upper Jet Streams indicate a core around the TN coast. Meanwhile, in the Pakistan/NW India region, the 200 hpa jet streams are expected to get a Southward dip due to rushing in of Northern cool winds pushing in. 
1a). The core in the jet streams of the Sub Tropical Ridge situated off the TN Coast will "move" Eastwards. The core, or the clockwise winds at 200 hpa, will circulate clockwise off the TN/AP coast. 
2b). The dipping of the jet streams Southwards, will take a "plunge" upto Sindh/Gujarat regions. 

Hence, due to 1a): The Low, BB-15, will strengthen, but will as a depression at around 998 mb, just miss and skirt along the TN coast and AP coast. Rainfall will be more concentrated in the waters. Chennai and TN coast will get rainfall from 30th. 
BB-15 will skirt the coast and move N/NE along the track.
Odisha can expect showers on Tuesday 30th.

2b): Will bring colder conditions in Northern Pakistan, Sindh, NW India and Rajasthan and Gujarat. All this from 30th December. Around freezing night temperatures from 30th in North Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. Similarly, very cold temperatures in Pak Punjab and Sindh.

Meanwhile, Saturday and Sunday will see rains in Southern TN . 

For Mumbai, Partly cloudy Saturday. The current pleasant nights will continue, and Weekend will see day around 32c, but a pleasant night with low around 15/16c. 
Pune will have a cool climate with partly cloudy Saturday and day at 26c. Lows around 9c.

Delhi. Days will be foggy, at around 17c. Sunday night will see a drop to 5c.
Chennai, rains increasing from Tuesday 30th.
Thunder showers expected in Thiruvananthpuram this weekend. Kochi will however be cloudy.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Easterlies continue to affect E,S-E Srilanka ... a mini circulation is seen over S-S-E Bay just above 5N.

On 25-Dec, Christmas day, this circulation is expected to become strong over South bay above 5th parallel.. 
GFS expects this system to become Depression / Cyclone and drift N-W upto central Tamilnadu coast on 28/29-Dec.. 
A mid,upper-level W.D trough travelling East over North India can make the upcoming cyclone to drift N-E on 29-Dec 

NAVGEM suggests, that circulation will pop along S-E srilanka coast, move N-W and cross central Tamilnadu on 27-Dec 

Remember In 2011, Cyclone Thane also started as a circulation on 25-Dec and tracked N-W then W to hit central TN... 

Meanwhile, next 2 days - partly cloudy, dry days and cold morning expected for N,central Tamilnadu and cloudy, warm day for S,S-E Tamilnadu.
Chennai - Morning temp expected to be around 20/21 C for next 2/3 mornings.
Day will be around 28 C, more DRY and partly cloudy.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

1pm, FOGgy conditions over N Rajasthan, S Punjab and N,central Bihar ... 

Again, day temps across most of N,N-W,N-central India remained well below normal...
Lucknow = 13C (-10)
Delhi = 16C (-6)
Amristar = 13C (-7)

Present weak W.D system is expected to vanish in next 12hrs ... 
Next W.D system is expected to reach N-W,N India on Christmas day... that too is expected to be weak... 

RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia Fogged out Delhi colder than Musoorie, Shimla.

RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia Fogged out Delhi colder than Musoorie, Shimla.

Monday, December 22, 2014

RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia Cold freezes North, spreads to south now

RT @SkymetWeather: #NewDelhi city enveloped in Dense #fog, atleast 12 #flights and 50 #trains delayed. 

S-W Bay near S-E Srilanka coast is having a low-level circulation and easterlies is seen upto 11N ... 
During next 2 days... moderate rain will reach, pop along S-E,S coast Tamilnadu due to easterlies and circulation.

GFS models continue to project a consolidation of S-W Bay circulation around 25-Dec and drift N,N-W !! 

Chennai - Expected to have 50% cloudy days with 21 C morning during next 2 days !
Sunday morning it was COLD in Rajasthan, Churu records 5 C.
Jaipur = 5C (-4)
Udaipur = 3C (-5)
On Saturday, the day temp across N,N-W India fell...
Ambala = 10 C (-11)
Chandigarh = 9 C (-12)
Delhi AP = 16 C (-6)
Lucknow = 14 C (-10)

Sunday again there was very dense FOG from central Pakistan to central, E Uttarpradesh...
Day temps were below normal.
Sunday's below normal day temps were...
Patiala = 9.7 C
Delhi = 17.5 C
Lucknow = 16.1 C
Patna = 16.6 C

A moderate W.D is nearing N,N-W India.... The system will affect Kashmir, N Himachal today.. 
Snow, moderate rain, cloudy skies expected over Kashmir, N Himachal on today till noon of Tuesday.

Next, upper,mid-level W.D trough is expected to reach N,N-W India on noon, 24-Dec ... 

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Today [21 Dec] is the shortest day of the year

This Sunday, 21 December, the northern hemisphere will experience the shortest day of its year, marked at 22:03 GMT by an astronomical phenomenon known as the winter solstice - the moment the North Pole is tilted furthest from the sun as the Earth continues on its orbit.
The solstice doesn't always occur on 21 December. Sometimes it nudges into the early hours of 22 December, which will happen again next year. The hour of day also varies. Last year's arrived at 17:11. Next year's will at 04:38.
It would seem logical that after the shortest day has elapsed the mornings would start getting lighter earlier, but this isn't what happens - the mornings continue darkening until early in the new year.
In the southern hemisphere, it's exactly the opposite story. In Sydney, Australia, for example, mornings will start getting darker from the middle of December, while the evenings will continue to get lighter until early January.
So what is behind this peculiarity, which appears to fly in the face of received wisdom about the solstice - surely the shortest day should experience the latest sunrise and earliest sunset?
Well, the primary reason behind it all is that a day - a solar day to be precise - is not always exactly 24 hours.
"In fact, it is 24 hours only four times a year, and never in December," explains astronomer Stephen Hurley, who runs a popular science blog called The Science Geek. "It is at its shortest around 23 hours 59 minutes and 30 seconds, in early September, and at its longest around 24 hours 30 seconds in December."
There are two reasons why the length of the solar day varies, the first being the fact that the axis of the Earth's rotation is tilted - 23.5 degrees from vertical - and second, the Earth's speed varies because it moves in an elliptical orbit around the sun, accelerating when it is closer to the star's gravitational pull and decelerating when it is further away.
The sun therefore in effect lags behind the clock for part of the year, then speeds ahead of it for another.
"As you can imagine, it would be complete chaos if our clocks and watches had to cope with days of different lengths," continues Hurley. "So we use 24 hours, the average over the whole year, for all timekeeping purposes.
"So, as the solar days in December are on average 24 hours and 30 seconds, while our clocks and watches are still assuming that each day is exactly 24 hours, this causes the day to shift about 30 seconds later each day."
This cumulative shifting explains why the evenings draw in towards their earliest sunset a couple of weeks before the shortest day, and why the mornings continue to get darker until a couple of weeks after.

Couttesy: BBC NEWS

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Present easterlies affecting Tamilnadu coast will dry up in next 24hrs.
DRY next 2 days ahead for most of Tamilnadu, except S,S-E coast !

More easterlies pushing into S,S-E Bay... a low-level circulation is expected over S-W Bay along E,S-E Srilanka on 20-Dec.
This circulation is expected to affect S,S-E,central coast Tamilnadu on Monday ... 
This upcoming circulation can bring showers upto N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai on Tuesday !!
Most of the rain will be below 12th parallel.

Followed by this... GFS models suggest more easterlies this time with a Depression over S,S-W Bay on 23/24-Dec.
GFS expects the next LOW / Depression will cross S,S-tip Tamilnadu on Christmas day! Giving HEAVY rain on that day. 

Chennai - Almost NO rain expected from tomorrow noon till Monday.
DRY days ahead with COLD mornings.

Drizzle possible on Friday before 2pm.

Weather Instagram at December 18, 2014 at 03:05PM

Chennai - 3pm, kundrathur zone just got a mini passing shower. #weather

from Instagram

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Present easterlies along Tamilnadu coast is hampered by dry winds from North India ... 
During next 2 days, the easterlies is expected to affect only below 12th parallel. Moderate rain expected for central coast Tamilnadu.

Heavy T showers expected for S,S-E coast Tamilnadu on Thursday and Friday.

On 20-Dec, a low-level circulation is expected over S-W Bay along E,N-E Srilanka coast ! 
This S-W Bay circulation along with easterlies can whip rain upto Chennai on Sunday into Monday 

For Chennai, S-coast Andhra and N-coast Tamilnadu ... Only scattered light / moderate rain expected for next 2 days.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Easterlies has reached Tamilnadu coast ... showers will pick strength as the day progresses... 

Chennai - 11:34am, scattered Drizzles so far. And now moderate/light scattered showers forecast before Wednesday morning.
Reason? coming up!
As of now, moderate rain seen from Marakkanam (100km South from chennai) to  Cuddalore zone only.. 

In the North, the upper level W.D trough has weakened and now over East India... giving way to an anti-cyclone over N-W,central India.
This anti-cyclone has started to drive DRY winds from N-W India to N,N-W Bay and eventually to S-E coast India.. (cont.)
.. this will make N-W,N,central,E-central India COLD
Dry up easterlies moisture near S coast Andhra, N,N-coast Tamilnadu and Chennai...
... So present easterlies may not bring heavy showers for N,N-coast Tamilnadu and Chennai during next 2 days !

Today, tomorrow...
Heavy scattered rain for central, S-E coast Tamilnadu and central,S-central,S Tamilnadu .. 

By Thursday, a LOW / depression is expected to form over S Arabian sea and drift West towards Somali coast !

More easterlies expected to affect Tamilnadu coast before end of December.
Next expected to reach on 22-Dec !
These continuous easterly wave "can" pop a Depression or Cyclone over S,S-central Bay during last week of December.
Remember Cyclone Thane ?
Remember Cyclone Thane ?? check here for more ...

Monday, December 15, 2014

Next Easterlies is very near to Tamilnadu coast, Chennai.
It'll start affecting with rain after midnight today !!.. 

Scattered intermittent showers for central,N coast Tamilnadu and Chennai from early hrs of tomorrow, 16-Dec.. 

Sunday, December 14, 2014

RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia
Raining quite heavily now in Delhi. 9:05pm

For South India, another easterlies is speeding towards Tamilnadu coast... 
A low-level circulation also expected to pop over S-W Bay along Srilanka coast tomorrow... 

Showers expected to start along central,S-E,N coast of Tamilnadu from early hrs of Tuesday.
Easterlies is expected to persist along Tamilnadu coast from Tuesday even till 21-Dec !!

"More heavy rain ahead for interior, coast"
RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia Cold with a mild breeze outside but no rains during the night (Delhi). (5:35am)
RT @Serene_Meadows: @weatherofindia Cold winds, unseasonal rain heralds winter in Capital - Hindustan Times 

RT @SkymetWeather: #Hailstorm in #nashik damages #grape production worth 18 crore. READ FULL REPORT: @weatherofindia 
RT @SkymetWeather: Maximums in #Delhi drop, colder days ahead. #WinterIsComing #Winter @weatherofindia @WeatherDelhi 

Yesterday across N India, the day temps dropped...
Ambala = 15C (-7)
Chandigarh = 15C (-7)
Shimla = 7C (-5)
Lucknow = 19C (-6)

Scattered heavy rain over N,N-central India due to W.D...
Ambala = 39.8mm
Chandigarh = 74.3mm
Bhuntar = 77mm
Shimla = 62.4mm
Patiala= 17.1mm

Now, the upper-level W.D trough is seen along N-W India dipping South upto 21N ... continue to drift East.. 
By morning of 16-Dec, the present W.D trough is expected to drift East and move along north zones of E,N-E India.

Before Monday morning...
Scattered showers over N-E Madhyapradesh, N Chatisgarh, W,central,E Uttarpradesh, W Bihar.. 
Monday, thru the day into midnight..
Scattered rain for N Chatisgarh, E Uttarpradesh, Bihar, N Jharkhand, N Bengal and Sikkim.
Tuesday morning..
Scattered rain for Northern zones of N-E states of India.
That'll be the end of present W.D system !

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Chennai - 1pm, heavy rain now over Polichalur zone. Dark as 6pm.

Weather Instagram at December 13, 2014 at 11:18AM

11:07am, Warm and sultry in Karaikal. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at December 13, 2014 at 11:15AM

Chennai - 11:15am, more sharp showers in Polichalur zone. #weather

from Instagram


[1] The cloudy weather and associated isolated or scattered rains for somewhat 60% of India is unusual for this  period.(except for TN,CAP & parts of Kerala where the rain is seasonal climatologically)
[2] The prevailing wind pattern can be generalized for 13 Dec 2014 / 0530 hrs as given below:

  • ·         East of about 77 Degree E and unto North of about 10 Degree N, the prevailing wind is predominantly NEly.

  • ·         Elsewhere in Arabian Sea & Indian Ocean it is SEly turning to SWly and engulfing the entire India.

[3] The East west trough identified near 5 Degree North which is responsible for rains in down south including parts of Kerala & Karnataka and troughs in easterly wave responsible for rains in North Coastal districts in TN & coastal AP