Saturday, November 23, 2013

Chennai - 11:20pm,  heavy rain seen all along Chennai coast at around 90 km  from  city. Heavy rain  may  push in by early morning.

RT @densabraham: @weatherofindia Raining in Thiruvalla,Kerala (4:21pm)
"92W" - JTWC issues Cyclone formation ALERT and tracking it as "05B"
RT @SaifArash: Heavy rain now @ Mukkam Bus station #Mukkam #Kozhikode #Kerala #Weather #India (3:01pm)

92W - Now a Well marked LOW over S-E corner of Bay

Analysis at 11:30am show good Wind wrapping over its center.
Pressure around 1003 mb and winds upto 60 kmph.

Present location is plotted here...

As of latest numeric models, IMD GFS and NAVGEM model suggests a N Andhra coast or Odisha coast landfall as Cyclone on 29-Nov.

But COLA GFS suggests same zone as that of Cyclone Helen (central Andhra coast)
At present it has slowly drifted W-N-W during past 12hrs.
The present upper level winds in that zone will guide the system W-N-W and cross Andamans into Bay at around 10N, 92 / 91E in next 36hrs.

Unusual rainfall in Bodinayakanur

It has been raining continuously  from mid night to 0700 hrs IST of date 23.11.2013.  IMD ARG at taluk office reported 117.0mm rainfall,  Flash floods in "Vanjathodai" was reported.. Human life loss and huts damage also reported.

  • The unusual rainfall at Bodinayakanur [Theni district] may be attributed to easterly wave propagation. 
  • Its influence is felt in NW parts of Tirunelveli district and Kanyakumari district too.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 2.20pm, It's pouring in S/East Bangalore...Sudden heavy downpour... 
RT @rajugana: Bangalore 1.55pm, Partially cloudy skies, slight drizzle in some parts of the city. sky

#Chennai - 2pm, WARM afternoon, with good signs of RAIN.
Moderate rain seen over Bay at 55km, E, N-E from city. May push in towards evening.

W.D have now reached Pakistan ... showers seen there and Kahmir is cloudy with scattered rain/snow expected in 24hrs 
1:30pm, Showers seen near central, N Tamilnadu coast from Bay ...

Today as well, showers expected for central, S Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu and W-ghats of Kerala and Tamilnadu, expected to continue till Monday
Scattered showers expected to push into N,central-coast, Interior Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S Andhra coast by evening/night last till 24-Nov.

#Helen vanished, "92W" has pushed into S-E corner of Bay

#Cyclone #Helen has dissipated by crossing only 10km inland ... (something like 100 to 0 in 12 secs) ...
11:30pm, Satellite IR shows "almost nothing left of #Helen along Andhra coast" ... 

Some showers are expected to be along #Helen zone (central, N Andhra coast) during next 18hrs.
Meanwhile an Easterlies is expected to reach Tamilnadu, #Chennai coast by evening of Today, 23-Nov.
From evening of 23-Nov, scattered moderate rain expected ALL along S-E, central,N Taminadu coast and  #Chennai.
Showers along #Chennai, Coastal Tamilnadu is expected till Sunday evening, and the rain is expected to push into interior Tamilnadu.
More heavy T showers expected over S,central Kerala, S tip Tamilnadu and along W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu during next 2 days.

Along #Chennai, at present the low level winds are from East, mid level from N, N-N-W and upper level is from W,S-W.
#Chennai - "Unstable wind directions at various levels of height can lead to unstable weather , Rain."
#Chennai - 12:40am, Showers now seen over N,N-W,W-N-W suburbs of city.
Rain may push into city in next 2 hrs or towards morning.

#Helen has vanished and "92W" has pushed into S-E corner of Bay... with pressure around 1004mb.. 
Numeric models at present suggesting a N-W movement for "92W" intensifying into a Cyclone in next 3 days... 
For "92W", models suggest a central / N Andhra coast (or) Odisha coast on 29/30-Nov
If "92W" intensifies and moves N-W into central Bay... then DRY weather can be expected over MOST of #Tamilnadu from Monday.