Thursday, October 10, 2013

Cyclone Phailin - Odisha take cover !

RT @gsarkar: @weatherofindia Eye of Phailin. Its beauty and the beast. Looks amazing.

Cyclone Phailin is striding towards Odisha coast.
Latest analysis show that the system has intensified further during past 6hrs and tracked N-W.
Pressure at core is amazingly low at 948mb.
Winds gusting up to a massive 185 kmph.
Latest, 9:30pm satellite IR shows, huge core, good eye and with heavy convective activity all along its quadrants.

12-Oct-2013, Saturday is going to be "HELL over Odisha" ... especially from mid-morning to midnight for the Odisha coast.
Phailin is constantly obeying most of the weather models. Going by this, it is expected to make landfall near Andhra and Odisha Border coast at around 4/5pm on 12-Oct-2013.

From the News ::
Cyclone Phailin: Heavy rains lash Andhra; Odisha seeks Army’s help ... 
Cyclone Phailin to lash Odisha, AP, orange alert issued...
As cyclone nears, Seemandhra power employees call off strike ...  
Severe Cyclone "Phailin"  Cat 3: (10.30 pm IST)

"Phailin", getting stronger by the hour, has reached a stage of Rapid Intensification. The Intensity which was 4.0 at 0000Z has rsen to 6.0 by 1200Z. 
And that is tremendous !
With an well formed eye, 15 kms in diameter, it is but obvious that the central uprising warm air is turbulent, and at the "warm eye" the cloud temperatures in the centre of the system has risen to 0c, while the outer cloud top temperatures are imaged at -80c.

Wind speeds and core pressure indicate a Cat 3 status...Winds around the eye are estimated  at 185 kmph (though DVORAK calculates at 212 kmph). Core pressure is sliding down at astounding speed, is currently estimated at 949 mb.

Now, with core winds of 185 kmph, if the upward warm current mentioned is strong, an outer eye , a circle of severe thunder storms, can form, and "choke " the original eye. In this phase, the cyclone weakens. But, generally, an outer ring can form if the original eye is less than 10 kms in diameter.
Can only re -strengthen if the inner wall is completely wiped out by the stronger outer eye.
But all this can be superbly observed  by a reconnaissance aircraft. 

Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted.

Cyclone Phailin with an eye tracking towards Odisha

Cyclone Phailin - packing a punch with winds upto 120 kmph... with pressures at around 974 mb and constantly tracking towards Odisha.
The intensity of Cyclone Phailin is expected to become even more severe in next 24hrs ... now it's a "very severe cyclone".
Cyclone Phailin landfall is expected to be along S Odisha coast on evening of Saturday, 12-Oct.
Latest satellite IR at 6pm shows super good core with an Eye ...

Chennai 2:30pm, heavy T shower now over Polichalur zone..

"90W" is "02B" and will be Cyclone Phailin in 12hrs.

Latest analysis show that "02B" is nearing Cyclone intensity, and  has crossed Andaman Islands.
Soon it'll be named as "Phailin". 
Pressures around 993mb.
Winds reaching upto 75 kmph
Here's the latest position taken from GFS analysis at 5:30pm today.
Latest satellite IR at 11:30pm shows Heavy convective activity along it's core and the circulation is getting very well organized.

Almost ALL weather models NOW agree to the N-E Andhra coast and Odisha coast landfall on evening of Saturday, 12-Oct as "severe Cyclone".
During next 3 days, there's NO Western disturbance systems affecting the N,N-W India.
An anti-cyclone is expected to persist over Pakistan and adjoining N-W India till 13-Oct.
The upper level 200hpa JET is from East to West... this can steer the Cyclone to track West or W-N-W during next 3 days.

From today, N-E Andhra and Odisha coast should get ready to face this massive storm. !