Sunday, October 15, 2017

October 15, 2017 at 04:51PM

The awaited LOW is here over central Bay. 
The LOW is over central Bay soon it'll be tracked.
Now, its time to check the intensity and track it'll move during next 3 days !

The central,W,NW,N Bay is having above normal Sea Surface Temperature and above 29 C... which is very good for Cyclone growth.
But in upper-level steering winds, there are some surprises.
The HIGH moving East from Middle-east is expected to steer our Bay system.
in this upper-level chart you can see the HIGH is now over middle-east and another over N-central Pacific.
The pacific HIGH is far away from our Bay system, so it may not influence the steering. 
On other hand, the middle-east HIGH is expected to push East up to West India in next 2 days and expected to take control of the steering !!
Here's the upper-level forecast chart for 17th evening, one, can see the HIGH is near West India.

This is the reason WHY, both GFS and ECMWF 's latest model run shows the "expected" bay Cyclone to make landfall along N coast #Andhra !!
Don't be surprised to see a central coast Andhra landfall forecast in next analysis run by both GFS & ECMWF !
Present Bay LOW is expected to grow into Depression in next 36hrs and expected to track WNW !!