Monday, October 26, 2015

94A slowly intensifying, NE monsoon showers are near for Tamilnadu, S-coast Andhra

3pm, 94A over S Arabian sea is slowly getting a shape, while 93B over SW Bay remains as circulation ...

Present location of 94A is 7.2N, 66E.
Pressure around 1004mb.
Winds gusting to 45 kmph.

94A is expected to intensify into a Cyclone in next 2/3 days and drift N-W and then W-N-W towards Oman / Yemen coast .

Easterlies over Bay is nearing Tamilnadu coast and S Andhra coast.
Heavy / moderate rain expected from mid-morning or afternoon of 27-Oct
Heavy / Moderate rain for N,central coast #Tamilnadu , #Chennai , and S-coast #Andhra from noon/ evening of 27-Oct ..

By midnight of 27-Oct... NE #Monsoon will be over S-coast Andhra and Tamilnadu coast !

October 26, 2015 at 12:48AM

25-Oct, 7:45pm, Malout , SW Punjab got T shower due to WD. #weather

from Instagram

October 26, 2015 at 12:43AM

Badlapur - 25-Oct, 3pm to 5pm got good electric shower. #weather

from Instagram

Strong WD system to give rain for Delhi, W,central Uttarpradesh, Punjab, Haryana

A mid,upper-level WD trough is affecting N,N-W India now ...

The upper-level WD trough can be seen along NW India dipping South upto 21/20N.
This WD trough is expected to drop a strong circulation in next 36hrs over central Pakistan and will move East into #India.
The WD trough and circulation is expected to drift east across N,N-central India during next 3/4 days...

Before Wednesday... scattered heavy / moderate rain for Kashmir, Punjab, N,N-E Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal, W Uttarpradesh.
Good chance of moderate rain for #Delhi on Tuesday and Wednesday..

Scattered T showers will push into W,central Uttarpradesh and N,N-E Madhyapradesh from Tuesday evening into Wednesday, Thursday !

The twins - 93B and 94A. NE monsoon to reach Tamilnadu coast on 27-Oct

Now, both circulations, LOW are tracked.. S Arabian sea - 94A and SW Bay - 93B...

Present position and Pressure of two systems..
94A - 6.5N, 64.4E, 1007mb
93B - 6.2N, 82.5E, 1007mb

10pm, Satellite IR shows heavy convective activity All along 5th to 10th parallel from S Arabian sea to S,S-E Bay..
10pm, Due to WD, scattered rain seen over Punjab, Kashmir and N Himachal...

Now, the forecast for both 94A and 93B is getting 75% clear.
Models expect the 94A to become Cyclone and drift W-N-W in next 3/4 days.
While, the SW Bay LOW is not expected to intensify, instead it'll get embedded with the upcoming easterly trough..

As of now, the easterly wave has reached upto central Bay...
This easterly wave is expected to reach Tamilnadu coast, S-coast Andhra on morning/noon of 27-Oct.. launching NE monsoon along coast ! 
Heavy/moderate rain to start for S-coast #Andhra, #Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai from noon/evening of 27-Oct..

If 94A intensifies into Cyclone and drifts W-N-W then pull effect can give more rain for Tamilnadu coast and Andhra coast after wednesday.

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
Monday morning and before 3pm...
light / moderate rain possible along N-E,N-coast,SE-coast,S Tamilnadu and #Chennai.

On 25-Oct, N,W,NW zones of Maharastra got good T showers.
This is expected on Monday afternoon as well ..