Saturday, October 12, 2013

Land fall near Vizagnagaram

[1] Peddapuram AWS (17.1N / 82.2E) at 121013/15Z reported 270/09kt [Westerly Nine knots] in South

[2] Khurdah AWS  (20.2N / 85.8 E) at 121013/15Z reported 100/20kt [Easterly twenty knots] inNorth.

Therefore the centre might have been in between. 

[4] Vizagnagaram AWS (18.1 N/ 83.4E) 121013/15Z reported 360/02kt [Northerly two knot]

Roughly it may be presumed that the centre has crossed close to Vizagnagaram./ Dharmavaram

"Phailin" located at 19N and 85E, has stalled in this position since 5 pm IST to 7.30 pm IST. In that period, it has weakened considerably, and at 8 pm IST, is located at 19N and 86E, just 20 kms South of Gopalpur. Core pressure is 938 mb and winds at 215 kmph. Still just within the official Cat 4 stage.

Presuming the resumed rate of 20 kmph tracking, it would have crossed the coast between 8.30 pm IST and 9 pm IST .
It is very very difficult to be precise and absolutely accurate for landfall without a proper defined centre. 

In effect, it could be said to have now crossed into land South of Gopalpur between 8.30 pm IST and 9.00pm IST Saturday !!. 

From Vagaries 

Phailin - 4pm, "started making landfall now" "Eye very near to Land"

Latest analysis show that the Cyclone is undergoing slow weakening, around half of the core has pushed inland.
     Still category 5 storm.
    Pressure is now around 929mb
    Wind gusts up to 240kmph
Satellite visible shot at 3pm shows the EYE is very near to Odisha coast.

The EYE will cross into land through Brahmapur at around 7:30 to 8pm.

Our prayers are with people of Odisha and N-E Andhra.
Super Cyclone "Phailin" Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Rains overnight till Saturday Morning: Gopalpur 56 mms, Cuttack 33 mms, Bhubaneshwar 60 mms, 

Located at 18.2N and 85.5E, it has maintained same strength at 920 mb and 260 kmph. 
Now, approximately 110 kms from Land , it can cross the coast ( Just South of Gopalpur) at around 7 pm IST, seeing the current speed of tracking. Before hitting land, clouds will get concised, and system will weaken rapidly on Land. 
The movement after landfall will be almost Northwards. 

This is due to the active WD now in the North. Last 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, there was good rainfall in Punjab  with Amritsar getting 67 mms, And in HP Dharamsala got 56 mms, Manali 14 mms, Delhi SJung got 39 mms, Palam 22 mms and in West UP, heavy rainfall in Hindon of 54 mms, and Meerut getting 13 mms..Jammu got 9 mms. Many places in the region recorded upto 10 mms of rain.

The Super Cyclone and the careless Indian TV Channels

What a fellow Indian observed from America :

Hope, they are preparing well for this monster storm because it is half the size of India, even stronger than Hurricane Katrina (Category 5 Hurricane) with winds of 315 km/hour and storm surge expected to rise more than 30 feet, just like 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone........

You probably won't know these details because Indian newspapers and news channels were still busy discussing the possible after-effects of Sachin's retirement on World Test Cricket till now and have just woken up......

My relatives were calling me from India when Hurricane Sandy (Category 2) hit US because the Indian news channels and papers went crazy, disproportionately covering it 24x7, in contrast to this Super Cyclone which will hit India in 24-36 hours and is far stronger and severe, but still unfortunately has got minimal news coverage in India!!!!! That's typical Indian Media for you. They always get their priorities wrong. 

Also, the IMD is underestimating the strength of this massive storm system. Government is asking people not to panic and stay indoors. But riding out this storm is not an option. You can't really ride out a Category 5 storm. You just have to get out of its way and evacuate. Unfortunately, many people will be caught off-guard and I fear a high number of casualties.

 Now, all you will see is the news anchors debating who should be blamed for the loss of thousands of lives once the storm is over, on those prime time debates (shouting competitions). But I haven't seen a single debate or interview on news channels or in newspapers asking the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) officials or the State Government officials or the officials from National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) which is headed by none other than Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and Vice Chaired by Marri Shashidhar Reddy who is an MLA from Andhra Pradesh, about what kind of preparations they have done, what kind of steps they have taken for mitigation and recovery, what have they done to prevent significant damage, what would be their response and what are their plans for recovery? Absolutely nothing, zero, none (except a small mention in Wall Street Journal about 28 Disaster Response Teams deployed by Marri Shashidhar Reddy, but again it was an American newspaper and not Indian who published it) !!!!! However, these channels will be the first one to jump in to find out who should be blamed once the storm is over, instead of trying to find out the persons responsible for the disaster management beforehand so people can also know that they can be held accountable if they don't do their job properly. No wonder people don't respect the Indian media!!!!!

PS: I am amazed that there are only 3 comments on this article even after few hours and very few have commented on the article. Probably because the article does not have the magic word "Modi". But I am glad that at least they have not blamed Modi for this cyclone just to get more comments. Just saying!!!!!! Anyways, if you don't want to write the comment than at least give a Thumbs Up and pray for people of Odisha and Northern Andhra Pradesh. Would be much appreciated.

Phailin - 7am, "moving inland", "Dangerous next 18hrs for Odisha, N-E Andhra"

Very near to coast of Odisha, the core is almost pushing into land.
" DO NOT UNDER ESTIMATE THE POWER OF THIS CYCLONE " this warning is for most of Odisha and N-E Andhra.
US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and London-based Tropical Storm say that Cyclone Phailin will come with winds reaching 315 kmph on landfall, classifying Phailin as a Category 5 storm - the most powerful . As per the IMD, Phailin winds would reach only 220 kmph. 

Helpline number: Odisha Central Control Room 0674-2534177

Now it's a Category 5 storm... 
    Pressure around 910mb.
    Winds gusting up to 275 kmph.
The core or EYE will cross through Srikakulam in N-E Andhra and Brahmapur, Puri in Odisha at around 7 or 7:30pm, 12-Oct-2013.

Visible shot at 6:30am shows the proximity to Odisha.

Here's the 7am satellite IR.. "Eye is clear" and "Very heavy convective activity seen over S, S-W quadrant"

Cyclone Phailin 'may be worse than Katrina' that hit US in 2005 ... 
7.47 am: Phailin approaching fast. Heavy rains and strong winds batter coastal Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh... 
Posted on Friday @ 11.40 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Core Pressure drops further to  915 mb with core winds at 270 kmph !!
Located at 16.8N and 87E.....

Expected intensification which spurted after recycling of eye, would "stabilise" now onwards. This is also justified by the fact that the difference between cloud tops in the eye  (-21c) and outer clouds (-80c) has narrowed from the previuos 80c difference. 
The rainfall rate map shows the coastal regions have started receiving rains at at least over 25 mms/hour. 

Expected to reach the Odisha coast by Saturday afternoon/evening. On reaching land, the cyclone will be around current strength. The likely strike area is likely to be near Gopalpur . Gopalpur, Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack are in the heavy rainfall and winds zone. Besides this, Srikakulam district should be alerted for heavy rans and winds.
Rainfall will be extremely heavy in the strike regions, where the precipitation may be around 250-300 mms in the first 24 hrs.