Sunday, October 05, 2014

An amateur's attempt at a brief Summary of the NEM...See NEM Page 
#Chennai - Hot and humid days to continue during next 2 days !!

A low-level inverted trough can be seen from Odisha to S-E Uttarpradesh... 
This inverted trough is expected to persist from Odisha coast to E,N-E Madhyapradesh, N Chatisgarh till 7-Oct.. 

Meanwhile, low-level wind discontinuity persists, now seen from S-W Maharastra to S Karnataka, N,N-W, S Tamilnadu .. 
This wind discontinuity will be over N,N-W Karnataka to S Karnataka to N,N-W and S-central Tamilnadu .. 

7pm, Heavy T showers over W-ghats,central,S Karnataka, Kerala, N-W,W,S Tamilnadu, central,N-E Andhra... 

6-Oct, noon,evening...
Scattered T showers over Odisha, Chatisgarh, Jharkhand, N-E Andhra ... 
Heavy scattered T showers to pop again over W-ghats of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu.
T showers again for Kerala, S,S-W Karnataka, W,N-W,N,central,S Tamilnadu !
#Bangalore - Heavy T shower expected on afternoon, evening of 6-Oct.

WIND discontinuity in south Indian main land

1830 hrs IST clouds formation over west coast
Courtesy : IMD

Gradient Wind
Courtesy :BOM Australia 

The Arabian Sea branch of SWM strength fizzled away as of now and confined to Omen, Yemen, and Somalia and adjoining Arabian Sea.   However the Bay branch is relatively better because of the strength of HIGH in south Indian Ocean at 95 Deg East. The clouding in the Bay near Malacca straight fed by weak SWly winds may lead to formation of low pressure area.
The Gradient Level Wind Analysis is a snapshot of the airflow near the surface of the earth. The arrowed lines are called streamlines and represent the direction of the wind. The dashed lines are called isotachs, and connect points of equal wind speed.  Geostropic winds exist in locations where there are no frictional forces and the isobars are straight. However, such locations are quite rare. Isobars are almost always curved and are very rarely evenly spaced. This changes the geostrophic winds so that they are no longer geostropic but are instead in gradient wind balance. They still blow parallel to the isobars, but are no longer balanced by only the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces, and do not have the same velocity as geostrophic winds.
[Courtesy : University of  Illonois  WM 2010 weather web]

051014 12Z lower level winds
Courtesy: CIMSS

051014 1600LT
Courtesy : Mauritius weather Service

Usually during SWM withdrawal TS activity will be more over EAST coast .  This time it is pronounced over west.

A repeat of Cyclone Phailin expected !

Analysis show a low,mid-level circulation over S Thailand, S Myanmar and popping into Andaman sea ... 

In next 2 days, this circulation is expected to drift W-N-W, N-W , intensify to marked LOW or even a depression and come near to Andamans !

The upcoming E Bay system is expected to become as a Cyclone or even a S.Cyclone and cross Odisha coast on 12/13-Oct 

The upcoming Bay system can be a repeat of 2013's Cyclone Phailin ... for more check this out ... 

Weather Instagram at October 05, 2014 at 09:50AM

#chennai - 9:30am, another hot and humid day ahead. Can get cloudy from 10:30am to 1pm. #weather

from Instagram