Sunday, September 20, 2009

Mumbai recorded a pitiful 3,599.9mm of rainfall as of September 13 - an almost 28% drop from last year, and the lowest since 2004.
Start disaster preparations for next monsoon: GP Naik ..
India sees 21% monsoon deficit this yr: Met dept ..
Tourism:: Wayanad - Kerala for u ..
Today also satellite pic resembles the same pic as that of yesterday.. .. except that less clouds over Tamilnadu.
Heavy thunder storms lashing parts of 100kms west and North-west Chennai .
Chennai - we have medium and widespread thunder cell over to west-south-west and to north-west... No danger yet for Chennai main.
Satellite pic shows less cloud formation over south-east peninsula as compared to yesterday..
Chennai - Temperature now 1:57pm is at 31.8°C
Chennai - Just we have good sea breeze from East. This might trigger thunder cell formation after 3 pm.
Chennai - Still (1:54pm) it's Hazy and warm, with very little cloud formation around.

North-east monsoon may be normal

Earliest available weather forecasts for October to December suggest that the northeast monsoon is likely to be normal or just below normal.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University rules out scope for any `spectacular' show either over south peninsular India or the southeast coast.

Seasonal outlook published by the IRI, on Friday, said that October-November-December may see excess showers only over the extreme southern tip of the peninsula (southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Kerala).


There is no marked deviation seen from the normal for northwest India and the rest of the country except over Rajasthan where dry climate is indicated.

But mercury levels are forecast above normal for the northwest and central India, which may not benefit the Rabi crop.

November-December-January is likely to see below normal rains over the peninsula except southeast Tamil Nadu and the coast along east-central India. The rest of the country is tipped to see `climatology' features dominate (no marked deviation from the normal).

Mercury levels are forecast to stay slightly high over much of the country except eastern India.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon has been active over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast for sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the northeast States and Kerala during the next two days.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast over parts of south peninsular India.


The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that the monsoon has been active over south interior Karnataka.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and south interior Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep and coastal and north interior Karnataka.

Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over interior Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep; and at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over north interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy rain is likely over interior Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.


Meanwhile, the north-south trough running down from sub-Himalayan West Bengal to southwest Bay of Bengal persisted.

The trough also featured two upper air cyclonic circulations over west-central Bay of Bengal and southwest Bay of Bengal.

Satellite pictures, on Friday, showed convective clouds over parts of southeast Arabian Sea, west-central and south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and the northeastern States.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has said in its outlook that south peninsular India would continue to see unsettled weather activity even beyond September 30 when the monsoon is expected to pass.

An active trough of low-pressure (not measuring up to a low-pressure area) is forecast to persist over southwest and west-central Bay of Bengal during this period, the ECMWF said in its forecasts

The recent rain has helped improve the shortfall to 30% compared with 60% few weeks back.
The annual monsoon was 21% below the 50-year average in the June 1-Sept. 14 period for the country
"Monsoon may set to drift from next week " ..The rainfall typically begins receding from the middle of September.