Tuesday, December 27, 2011

AWEFUL THANE :: Prevention and Mitigation

Even during this time it seems AWFUL.  It will become a powerful storm and  cause havoc for Chennai.  Precautionary measures need to be initiated now itself. Some time it may become CAT 2 storm. Government must gear up all necessary precautions before landfall to avoid live and property loss. Whether it will fizzle out or strike precaution measures are safety measures.
I pray Tamilnadu Government officials and general public to be prepared to face the storm.
  1. Store food and water.
  2. Tighten all loose bound structures in your house.
  3. Don't touch wet electrical appliances and keep away from electrical circuits.
  4. Stay out of the building if flood water enters the building and
  5. Be prepared to be evacuated to higher {KNOWN] places. 
  6. Avoid walking or driving through flood waters.
  7. Bring valuable things in a secure place well after the first caution notice.
  8. Keep battery powered lights for use during nights.
  9. Monitor weather warnings / weather alerts for better preparedness     .
        While natural hazards cannot be controlled, the vulnerability to these
hazards can be reduced by planned mitigation and preparedness measures. 
chennai - might touch a low temp of 18/17 deg C around early morning of 28-Dec... temp. now (10:25pm) is already 22.8 C ... WoW !!
Cyclone "Thane" - Moving W-N-W, and will intensify to Severe Cyclone in 12hrs ... http://ow.ly/8bfhf

Cyclone "Thane" - Moving W-N-W, and will intensify to Severe Cyclone in 12hrs

Position, 9pm ::  Lat : 12:19:01 N Lon : 86:15:13 E
Winds :: 90 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 993mb
Tonight it'll intensify further to Severe Cyclone and continue to crawl W-N-W or West


Latest satellite IR shot, 9pm
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30pm
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271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER; HOWEVER, BASED ON A 271221Z SSMIS IMAGE, THE LLCC IS BROAD 
AND REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT 
TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DEPICTED IN A 
270327Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TC 06B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. GFS HAS TRENDED TO A 
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND IS ON THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER 
WITH AN UNREALISTIC RAPID RE-CURVE TRACK INTO BANGLADESH. THE JTWC 
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, GFDN, UKMO AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS AND IS 
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. TC O6B IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD 
OVERALL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE 
INDIAN COAST. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO 
LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 17 
FEET. 



IMD warning, 7pm
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 Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 12.50N and longitude 86.50E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI - Remarks
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CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 - 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIE IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS IN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMENT. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD/ NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NWP MODELS OF FIRST CATEGORY AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE.
6pm, Cyclone Thane enhanced IR satellite shot ... http://ow.ly/i/otic
Past 24hrs rainfall over Cyclone Thane .. seems to be carrying a lot of Rain .. http://ow.ly/i/ot92
In past 3 hrs Cyclone Thane has crawled W-N-W ... position at 5:30pm >> 12:38:00 N and 86:05:45 E
Cyclone Thane again showing signs of strengthening now 6pm.. http://ow.ly/i/ot3n >> It'll become a Severe Cyclone by early hrs of 28-Dec
@heyocritiq >> chennai - will have COLD and DRY weather till evening of 28-Dec.. We can expect some wind gusts and drizzles from 29-Dec AM
While Thane rages over Bay.. a moderate W.D is affecting N-W kashmir .. and will continue till 30-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/oszj
ADT readings ??? Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) >> http://ow.ly/8aSsN
chennai - today morning recorded 19.0 C (3:33am)
chennai - now 2:50pm is having mild breeze from N-N-E and temp. at 27.9 C .. expected to be another DRY and COLD night with light breeze!
Cyclone Thane may end up like Cyclone Jal (during early Nov-2010).. Jal came close to chennai coast as Cyclone and fizzled out near coast !
Cyclone "Thane" - Now moving West !! Expected to intensify into Severe Cyclone !... http://ow.ly/8aScv
Latest ADT readings suggest that Cyclone "Thane" is moving WEST !!
Oops !! IMD models predict another Depression over S.Bay on 2-Jan-2012.. http://ow.ly/i/osv9

Cyclone "Thane" - Now moving West !! Expected to intensify into Severe Cyclone !

Position, 1:30pm :: 12:27:41 N , 86:30:02 E
Pressure :: 994mb
Latest ADT readings suggest that "Thane" is moving WEST. Chennai is the target!!


Latest satellite IR shot, 1pm
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IMD warning, 1:30pm
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The cyclonic storm â€˜THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.


JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30pm
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270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 86.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER; HOWEVER, THE 
LLCC IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (A 
270717Z AMSU IMAGE HINTS AT POSSIBLE TILT IN THE SYSTEM). DESPITE 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DEPICTED IN A 
270327Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN 
UNREALISTIC RAPID RE-CURVE TRACK INTO BANGLADESH. TC O6B IS EXPECTED 
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD OVERALL 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE INDIAN 
COAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET. 

IMD warns that Cyclone "Thane" will reach chennai coast as Severe Cyclonic Storm on 30-Dec at 11:30am
Ground frost would occur over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, N.Rajasthan and W. Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours
Dense fog would occur over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, N. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in morning hours during next 2 days
On 26-Dec, highest maximum temperature of 33.9 C was recorded at Gulbarga (Karnataka)
Maximum temperatures rose by 2 to ­4 C over some parts of northeastern states.
Cyclone "Thane" is now 1:59pm is exactly to East of chennai at around 700km
"Thane" showing slight weakening in past 3 hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/osqY
Cyclone "Thane" - most models point to near Chennai landfall !! .. http://ow.ly/8aQgN
Chennai under Threat - Cyclone Thane .. http://ow.ly/8aQfr
"Thane" now Heading West...Chennai to be alerted !

Recurving now, it is expected to head West. Core pressure at 992 mb, and deepening !

Updated here and at http://rajesh26.blogspot.com

Cyclone "Thane" - most models point to near Chennai landfall !!

Position, 12:30pm :: 12:57:08 N , 86:53:43 E
Winds :: 90 km/Hr
Pressure :: 994mb


Latest satellite IR shot, 12pm
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30am
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270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 262252Z SSMI 
IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT CENTER FEATURE AND AN AVERAGE OF INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. 
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
CYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN 
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
TOWARD THE BASED OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, 
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN 
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, 
WHICH IS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
AND MODERATE OCEAN CONTENT VIE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PERSISTENT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO 
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI JUST 
AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL 
CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING SKEWED POLEWARD BY WBAR - WHICH DEPICTS AN 
ERRONEOUS RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST - AND GFDN AND EGRR - BOTH OF 
WHICH HOLD THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK AND STEER THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD 
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z 
IS 14 FEET.


IMD warning, 10:30am
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The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 27thDecember 2011 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from 28th December 2011 night onwards.
Squally wind speed of 45-55 kmph is likely to prevail along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours and squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 28th December night onwards.

Sea condition will be high to very high around the system centre. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours and will be rough to very rough from along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast from 28th December night onwards
Fishermen along Andaman & Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into sea during next 12 hours and fishermen along Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coast, who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.


IMD GFS model prediction
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Suggests a near Chennai landfall as a Depression on 30-Dec