Friday, May 17, 2013

Monsoon advance Analysis, as per vagaries..
SWM has feebly moved into the Andaman Region. 

SWM will start covering the complete Bay Islands to reach the NE states by the 1st of June. 

SWM could be expected over the Maldives by the 20th of May.(Normal date 20th). Over Sri Lanka around the 27th of May.

I would estimate the SWM to advance into Kerala around June 1st/2nd could be the date for Kerala, but remain weakish till the middle of June in coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Initially, as a result of a weak MJO wave, the SWM would be weak in Kerala in June. The further current into Kerala would be "reluctant" to move ahead in a weak MJO, as International forecasters predict the MJO phase in our seas to become weak up to the 10th of June. 

Nevertheless, the SWM could progressively advance into Goa/coastal Karnataka from 5th June, and Mumbai by the 9th/10th. of June. . 
SWM could delay advance into interior Karnataka and interior Maharashtra by a week from the 10th.

Around 18th of June, I would include entire Mah and South Gujarat as covered by the SWM. I would put the SWM in a weakish phase till the 15th.  
.see details in vagaries

RT @anansubramanium: @weatherofindia vellore, Tamilnadu is hot like oven .when will summer get over. >> temp will after monsoon sets in!

Circulation over S,S-E Arabian sea and Rain for Kerala

South West Monsoon is likely to advance over Kerala on June 3: IMD >> 

The cross equatorial winds are expected to become strong along S,S-E Arabian sea in next 2 days ... 

The present weak circulation over S,S-E Arabian sea is expected become marked in next 2 days ... 

Due to circulation and good cross equatorial winds, a weak monsoon current is expected to affect S.Kerala on 20,21-May 

Due to this, S,central.Kerala to get Monsoon style rain from Sunday night to Tuesday evening ... 

On Tuesday evening, the S-E Arabian sea circulation is expected to intensify and move N-W ... 

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 3.10pm, After a hot n humid day, formation of T.Clouds in the eastern skies..a pic 

#HOT at 3:30pm, Ahmedabad, Thiruchirapalli = 43 C, Delhi, Jaipur, Nagpur = 42 C, Amristar, Varanasi = 41 C, Patna = 36 C, Kolkata = 35 C.

#Chennai - After a HOT day till 2pm (crossed 40 C), now 4pm, a good sea breeze has set in from E-S-E. Temperature at 3:40pm is 37 C.

3:30pm, T.showers seen over central W.ghats of Kerala, S,N-W,N.Tamilnadu, S,S-E Karnataka and Odisha ... 

3:30pm, South West Monsoon in active mode over S,central Andaman Islands ...

Very HOT India on 16-May-2013

Heat wave conditions  were prevailing over  some parts of  Vidarbha  and at isolated pockets of  southwest Rajasthan  and  north interior Andhra Pradesh.   

Maximum temperatures 45.0°C and above were recorded at : Jaisalmer ­46.0, Chandrapur­ 45.5, Nagpur­ 45.4, Rentachintala ­45.1, Amraoti, Jaisalmer and Ramagundam­ 45.0°C   each.   The   highest   maximum   temperature   46.0°C   was   recorded   at  Barmer (Rajasthan).

Taken from IMD
RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 10.00am, Clear skies, bright sunshine, hot & windy. Dry, no rain for the past five days. Where the moisture  gone? 

Today, the remnant of Cyclone Mahasen is seen as a circulation over Northern N-E states of India ... 

Today, the north south trough is seen from E.Uttarpradesh to S.Tamilnadu running along S-E peninsula ... 

Now it's the turn of Arabian sea to host a circulation, a weak low level circulation seen over S-S-E Arabian sea today

Today, T.showers are expected to be back over W.Ghats of Kerala, N,N-W Tamilnadu, S,S-W, central Karnataka ... 

There is a 30 % chance of Rain for #Bangalore today !